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CCTV News (Focus Interview): This morning (April 16), the National Bureau of Statistics released the main data of the national economy in the first quarter. How strong is China's economic recovery? Perhaps at the beginning of the year, everyone's feelings will be a little different. During the New Year's Day holiday, "Erbin" became popular, and during the eight-day Spring Festival holiday, the major scenic spots were full of popularity, and the rapid heating up of the cultural tourism market made people feel the vitality of economic recovery. So, apart from people's feelings, what are the solid data of the main economic indicators, and how do you view the current recovery trend of China's economy?
5.3 percent is the mainland's economic growth rate in the first quarter of this year. According to preliminary calculations, in the first quarter, the GDP was 296299 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3% at constant prices.
Liu Aihua, Chief Economist of the National Bureau of Statistics and Director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of the National Economy: "In the first quarter of this year, as the effect of macroeconomic policies gradually emerged, the internal vitality continued to recover. In the first quarter of this year, GDP increased by 5.3 percent year-on-year, 0.1 percentage points faster than the fourth quarter of last year and 0.8 percentage points faster than the first quarter of last year. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP grew by 1.6% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter, maintaining positive growth for seven consecutive quarters. ”
Guo Liyan, deputy director of the Economic Research Institute of the China Academy of Macroeconomics: "The first quarter achieved a good start, both the economic aggregate and the growth rate have achieved steady growth, the main macroeconomic indicators on both the supply and demand sides have been further improved, and the main driving force of domestic demand has been further consolidated, while the support of external demand has also been significantly enhanced." ”
47.3% is the growth rate of the total travel expenditure of domestic tourists during the Spring Festival holiday this year. It can be seen that everyone is more willing to spend money when they go out to play. From similar consumption data, we can feel the changes in people's consumption behavior. Snow slides, ice plows, artificial moons, open-air jumps...... This winter, Harbin used "eighteen kinds of martial arts" and became the new "top stream" in the cultural and tourism industry.
Ice and snow fun is not enough, the warm post station built overnight, free ginger syrup, and hospitable Longjiang people make tourists' hearts warm. During the three-day New Year's Day holiday alone, Harbin received more than 3 million tourists and earned nearly 6 billion yuan in tourism revenue.
Here, the heat of Harbin's "Ice and Snow Feast" has not dissipated, and over there, the spicy hot in Tianshui, Gansu Province is on fire again. A bowl of hand-rolled flour and a plate of spicy dishes, after being blanched, poured with two spoonfuls of oil and spicy seeds, the red seduces people's taste buds.
From last year's "entering Zi to catch up with the roasting" and cooking tea around the stove, to this year's "Erbin" out of the circle, Tianshui Malatang exploded, and consumption hotspots emerged in endlessly. So, what is the underlying driving force behind this?
Tian Xuan, deputy dean of PBC School of Finance, Tsinghua University: "In fact, it is a very important embodiment of consumption upgrading, and people may be more personalized, experiential, integrated, and characteristic consumer needs, and it is necessary to accelerate the promotion of some new consumption infrastructure, including the innovation of new scenarios and new formats." ”
The popularity of the cultural tourism market reflects the vitality and potential of the mainland consumer market, and also makes a good start to this year's consumption recovery. In the first quarter, the total retail sales of consumer goods 120327 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%, and the contribution rate of domestic demand to economic growth reached 85.5%.
Liu Aihua: "In the field of consumption, there are three main highlights worth paying attention to. The second bright spot is the rapid development of new consumption models, driven by the rapid development of new technologies such as big data and the Internet, a large number of new formats and new models have emerged, bringing about the rapid development of new consumption models such as instant retail and live streaming, and in the first quarter of this year, the growth of online retail sales of physical goods reached 11.6%; For example, in the first quarter, the retail sales of sports and entertainment products above designated size increased by 14.2%, and the retail sales of communication equipment increased by 13.2%, both of which reached double-digit growth. ”
At present, the mainland is promoting a new round of large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in, further promoting consumption and investment, which will be a huge market with an annual scale of trillions of yuan. On March 30, Shanghai began to implement a new round of green smart home appliance consumption subsidy policy. Not only are there subsidies, but a "one-stop" trade-in service has also been launched.
For key industries such as steel, building materials, and electronics, equipment updates will also help them transform to green, digital, and intelligent.
Guo Liyan: "The direction of equipment renewal in some traditional industries is in two aspects, on the one hand, the replacement of some old equipment that has been in service for a long time is conducive to enhancing its safety and stability, and on the other hand, it is necessary to update the relevant equipment for the upgrading of the entire product line and the research and development of more new products. The renewal of relevant equipment has driven a part of the investment, which has formed an effective production capacity, produced more consumer goods that match the demands of household consumption upgrading, and led to the release of consumption potential, so that the cycle between effective investment and potential consumption is further benign and smooth. ”
Let's take a look at another data: In the first quarter of this year, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.1 percent year-on-year, an increase of 3.1 percentage points over the first quarter of last year, and industry became a bright spot in the recovery and development in the first quarter. At the same time, it can also be seen through some data that the new kinetic energy and new advantages that reflect the new quality of productivity are constantly cultivating and growing.
In Shanghai's autonomous driving test road demonstration area, driverless cars are shuttling back and forth; in Hangzhou's West Lake Longjing Tea Garden, intelligent tea picking robots are automatically identifying buds and leaves and accurately picking tea; The low-altitude economy has also begun to frequently enter people's field of vision, and at this university in Shenzhen, a drone landed on top of the takeaway cabinet and put the takeaway into the cabinet through a precise positioning system.
As a strategic emerging industry, the low-altitude economy has a wide range of application prospects in many fields such as logistics and transportation, emergency rescue, and manned transportation. It is estimated that in 2023, the scale of the mainland's low-altitude economy will exceed 500 billion yuan, and there is still a lot of room for growth in the future.
Since the beginning of this year, the development of high-tech, high-efficiency and high-quality industries like the ones mentioned above has been improving. In the first quarter, the added value of high-tech manufacturing increased by 7.5 percent, 2.6 percentage points faster than the fourth quarter of last year.
Tian Xuan: "In the first quarter, the new quality of productivity has developed greatly, enterprises have done a lot of R & D investment, some high-tech industries are constantly transforming and upgrading, especially like new energy, new materials, including information technology, and some high-end equipment of the new quality of productivity concentrated in the industry, we have seen a rapid increase in production capacity and output, such as the digital economy has reached more than 50 trillion yuan, accounting for 41% of GDP. ”
Not only on the production side, but also from some data on investment, we can also see the strong momentum of new quality productivity. In the first quarter of this year, investment in high-tech industries increased by 11.4 percent year-on-year, and what is particularly noteworthy is that investment in technological transformation in the manufacturing industry increased by 8.2 percent year-on-year.
Liu Aihua: "Since the beginning of this year, with governments at all levels increasing policy and financial support for the technological transformation of enterprises, the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries have achieved remarkable results. In the first quarter of this year, the investment in technological transformation of the manufacturing industry increased by 8.2 percent year-on-year, 4.4 percentage points faster than the previous year. Increasing investment in technological transformation of traditional industries has given new vitality to traditional industries and created new advantages. ”
5% is the growth rate of the mainland's imports and exports in the first quarter of this year. Foreign trade has had a strong start and a good start. In Zhejiang Yiwu International Trade City, you can intuitively feel the signs of trade recovery. In July, the upcoming Olympic Games in Paris brought business opportunities to Yiwu, and merchants have received a lot of orders in advance.
In the first quarter of this year, the total import and export value of the mainland's trade in goods was 10.17 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5%. Among them, exports increased by 4.9 percent, 4.1 percentage points faster than the fourth quarter of last year. The scale of imports and exports exceeded 10 trillion yuan for the first time in the same period in history, and the growth rate of imports and exports hit a new high in six quarters.
Guo Liyan: "In the first quarter, foreign trade maintained a stable growth rate, and the structure was further optimized, including a significant year-on-year increase in the year-on-year growth rate of imports and exports of countries along the 'Belt and Road', and a stable proportion of imports and exports of RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) related countries, all of which can depict some structural characteristics in the current foreign trade field." At the same time, new growth points such as cross-border e-commerce and duty-free economy also have a certain driving force. ”
Tian Xuan: "This is highly related to the fact that our country's own economy has been very resilient since the beginning of the year, the economy has resumed work and production, the recovery momentum, and the endogenous momentum is relatively sufficient. Objectively speaking, the entire world economy is also beginning to recover, which will lead to relatively strong external demand, including countries like the United States, Southeast Asia, and countries along the 'Belt and Road', whose economic development and recovery are also relatively large, increasing the demand for imports to our country. ”
50.8% was China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) for March. As one of the leading indices used in the world to monitor macroeconomic trends, the changes in PMI are particularly interesting in the process of economic recovery. After five consecutive months of contraction, in March, the manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range of more than 50% and hit a new high in a year, sending a positive signal to the outside world that China's economy is picking up.
Tian Xuan: "This actually means that the domestic economy has returned to the boom range, that is to say, the endogenous driving force of the economy is still there, and the economic resilience is still very strong." After the manufacturing industry enters the expansion range, it has a very important positive significance for our investment and the pull of GDP. ”
Liu Aihua: "From the perspective of the production expectations of enterprises, the production activities, business activities and non-manufacturing business activities of manufacturing enterprises are currently in a high boom range of more than 55%, indicating that enterprises have a relatively optimistic attitude towards the next stage of economic operation. With the gradual release of consumption potential, new momentum and new advantages are gradually shaped, and on the whole, the trend of economic recovery in the next stage is expected to continue. ”
In the first quarter, consumer prices were generally stable, and the average surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas nationwide was 5.2 percent, down 0.3 percentage points from the same period last year, and the employment situation was generally stable. It has made a good start and laid a good foundation for achieving the goals and tasks of the year. Recently, after reassessing the growth trend of China's economy, some international institutions have raised their forecasts for China's economic growth in 2024. Although the current environment for economic development is still complex and severe, with the effective effect of various macroeconomic policies and the accumulation of positive factors, we are confident that we will continue to promote the economic recovery and achieve the expected economic growth target this year.