Recently, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said at a forum that if the Philippine military is killed in the South China Sea dispute, it will be the time to ask the US military to intervene.
This shows two things: first, the Philippines is determined to fight China in the South China Sea and is prepared to pay the price with human lives, and second, Biden's pie for Marcos Jr. has worked, and the South China Sea is not expected to be peaceful for some time to come.
That begs the question, when something happens in the South China Sea, will the United States protect Israel or the Philippines?
Marcos Jr
First of all, it has always been the United States that has emphasized that the "US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty" applies to the South China Sea, but now that the words are coming out of the mouth of the Philippine president, the political signal is extraordinary. At present, the confrontation between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea is extremely intense, mainly because the Philippines has repeatedly picked quarrels and provoked troubles in Ren'ai Jiao, Scarborough Shoal and other places, and even a ship collision incident occurred during this period.
In addition, the Filipino crew has been injured at least twice due to the rudimentary hull of their own ship due to the Chinese Coast Guard's water cannons. If this trend continues, it cannot be ruled out that the Philippine side will fight for its life and use extreme circumstances to force the US military to end.
This is not unfounded. At present, Marcos Jr.'s ruling position is unstable, and Mindanao is showing a tendency to become independent. During Marcos Jr.'s visit to the United States, he designated three cronies to look after his family and prevented Vice President Sara from acting as president, which is also considered to be a "break" between the Duterte family and the Marcos family.
Not only that, but the Filipino people are complaining about the slow return of Chinese tourists as China cuts back its investment in the Philippines. The combination of various factors has made Marcos Jr. determined to gamble in the South China Sea. A few days ago, he had a showdown with China, saying that the four new US military bases last year were to deal with China.
Now that the US military missile is stationed on Luzon Island, Marcos Jr. is even more emboldened. Judging from more realistic factors, Marcos Jr. is desperate to achieve a "victory" against China in the South China Sea and consolidate his position, so his will to drag the US military into the water is unprecedentedly strong.
Second, although the Philippines' willingness to detonate a powder keg in the South China Sea is very high, it is difficult to say whether the United States will end up when something happens in the South China Sea. This has to start from two aspects, on the one hand, the US military is unable to "fight on three fronts", if it has to choose 1 of 2, then Biden will definitely choose to protect Israel and abandon the Philippines.
American
In fact, the situation in the Middle East is now on the verge of eruption, with Israel vowing to retaliate against Iran despite opposition, and Tehran is also on the needle. To put it bluntly, it is only a matter of time before Israel and Iran fight.
In the course of this Iranian attack on the Israeli mainland, the United States has already made its attitude clear with its actions. U.S. officers coordinated efforts in the control room of Israel's Arrow anti-missile system to help repel the Iranian attack.
The White House bluntly said that the reason why the missile that shot down the missile flying towards Israel but did not intercept the air strike on Ukraine was because the two were different conflicts.
Meifei
In the final analysis, the United States and Israel are pro, and Ukraine is just an outsider. Even if Ukraine is treated like this, the Philippines can be imagined. Once the conflict between Israel and Iran escalates, the United States will not hesitate to abandon the Philippines.
On the other hand, in 2016, China used its strength to teach the United States a lesson and shook off the US aircraft carrier formation. Nowadays, with the continuous "dumplings" of the PLA, the US military is not China's opponent at all in the first island chain.
The possibility of letting the United States take the risk to help the Philippines is almost zero. Not to mention, if the US military intervenes, it is likely to trigger a military conflict between China and the United States, which is a situation that Biden does not want to see. What the United States wants is an obedient pawn, not a "landmine" that ignites the fire.
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