Editorial Department of this journal丨Qi Yongchao
The market is capricious and "turned the face", almost never gives you a moment of hesitation, yesterday's comprehensive adjustment, today's comprehensive rise, it can really be said that yesterday's killing, today's short investors were a little caught off guard, and fortunately, the market also quickly "corrected" the sudden adjustment, today, the city's volume rebounded, and there is a shadow of a bull market. However, there is one more signal to watch out for, which will be highlighted below.
A number of disc phenomena are worth paying attention to
Let's talk about today's plate first. All along, the market has always been so capricious, yesterday, almost no plate rose, today, the market has turned 180 degrees, almost no plate has fallen, the market's "willfulness", but also let a lot of "fellows" who want to go back.
Let's talk about a few disk phenomena worth paying attention to.
The major indices staged a reverse package trend. Today, the Shanghai Composite Index, ChiNext and Shenzhen Composite Index all rose by more than 2%, and all of them achieved a reversal of yesterday's negative line, that is, today they have closed out the physical positive line and engulfed yesterday's physical negative line, which is an important signal of a market turning point (see attached chart).
Theme stocks fought back strongly. Today, more than 150 concept plates have risen by more than 6%, and further, a number of plates that have fallen continuously and over-fallen have also formed an "anti-package" model, such as PEEK materials, memory chips, low-altitude economy, disperse dyes, CPO (co-packaged optics), etc.
High-dividend, undervalued large-cap value stocks trimming. This is not a bad phenomenon, they have rarely been affected by market corrections before, and after a long period of time and large cumulative gains, there is a need for internal consolidation. However, funds have not stopped mining such targets, such as CITIC Bank's "10cm" volume limit today, which is an important signal.
Volume. At present, in recent trading days, the turnover of the whole A market has been maintained at about one trillion yuan, and today's turnover exceeds 920 billion yuan, compared with the previous scale of 700 billion yuan ~ 800 billion yuan. In contrast, in late February ~ late March, the market also maintained a daily turnover of 900 billion yuan to one trillion yuan, which boosted the major indexes to usher in a good rise during the period. However, the "seesaw" phenomenon in the market is still relatively obvious, and whether the market can maintain stability or increase transaction activity in the future should also be an important element of concern.
Strong stock relay. For example, yesterday's closing of the limit of the same shares, Zhonggong Hi-Tech, Chunguang Technology, Harbin Sanlian, etc. continued to close the limit. By tracking this part of the market, it can be observed that the activity of capital participation is not low.
Micro-cap stocks and ST stocks have changed from mud and sand to structural rebounds. Yesterday, there was a sharp adjustment in micro-cap stocks and ST stocks, and today, there was also a more obvious rebound, with the micro-cap sector falling 10% yesterday and rebounding 9% today; There are a number of stocks in the ST sector that have rebounded by more than 5%, but at the same time, there are also batches of ST stocks that continue to close out of the fall limit. Funding is increasing attention to targets that have been wrongfully killed.
Today's strong rally in the market may be related to a number of factors, including the technical repair after the market sentiment overshoot, as well as some relevant comments from regulators.
Yesterday, the regulator exchanged answers to questions related to dividends and delisting, which mentioned a number of issues of concern to the market, such as the revision of delisting rules, etc., the regulator said that the adjustment of the delisting index is aimed at increasing efforts to clear the "zombie shell" and "black sheep", not for "small-cap stocks".
However, there is another signal that needs to be paid special attention to, in the window period of annual and quarterly reports, it is necessary to be full of vigilance for underperforming stocks whose performance is less than expected. Bian Huizong recently said that in terms of time, this round of emotional ebb period will come to an end at least until the end of the quarterly report disclosure, that is, the emotional ebb will come to an end in May, and the key is to wait for the market breadth to fall to the lower limit range. A collection of wonderful cases of Bian Huizong's "The Explosion Point of the Dragon's Head" can be watched here.
Keep an eye on the two main lines of "defense" and "offense".
Under the "seesaw" and rotational rising effect of the market, the market has two relatively clear main lines, the first is the "defensive" main line of high-dividend, undervalued and high-performance value stocks, and the second is the "offensive" main line of strong theme-driven, high-performance elasticity and high-performance theme stocks.
For the main line of high dividend "defense", it has been repeatedly mentioned before, and they are mostly based on the concept of Chinese prefixes, medium special valuation, and coal, banking, transportation, public utilities and other industry sectors, and the new "National Nine Articles" further strengthen the supervision of cash dividends of listed companies. I won't expand too much here, and the details can be reviewed in "The "National Nine" Detonates the Market! This Main Line Deserves to Focus on Follow-up! Many Shares Have Risen to the Limit ......".
Let's focus on the theme stocks in the main line of "offense".
On today's disk, the major theme stocks have risen in turn, and the theme-driven logic behind them has not undergone major changes, except for the common factor of over-falling, there seems to be no other obvious law, but in fact, it is not, because many strong stocks in the strong theme have the blessing of performance factors.
For example, judging from the quarterly report, at present, there are about 170 companies in the market that have released this year's quarterly performance forecast, and the quarterly report window is not only a demining period, but also a good time to capture excess returns.
Take Zhaomin Technology in PEEK material as an example. Today, PEEK material ranks first in all concept sectors with an increase of more than 11%, PEEK material is a lightweight special engineering plastic, used in a variety of fields, recently, because of the application of Tesla humanoid robot to the material has been closely watched by the market. Zhaomin Technology released its first-quarter performance forecast on April 16, saying that it is expected to achieve a year-on-year increase in net profit of 68%~97%. Today, the company quickly gapped, opened high and closed the "20cm" daily limit in early trading. According to its previous statement, PEEK materials are used in a variety of the company's auto parts products, and the output is determined according to customer demand.
Another example is BIWIN storage in memory chips. The memory chip sector rose 8.6% today, and BIWIN Storage's share price performance is similar to that of Zhaomin Technology, which also opened higher in early trading today, and quickly closed out of the "20cm" price limit. According to its performance forecast released on April 16, it is expected to achieve a net profit of 150 million yuan ~ 180 million yuan in the first quarter of this year, turning losses into profits year-on-year.
The following will not be listed one by one, we have also deliberately screened the recent announcement of the first quarter of this year's performance increase, the stock price on April 17 is relatively strong and there are related hot themes of individual stocks for your reference, the specific list can be seen (attached table).
(The individual stocks mentioned in the article are for example analysis only, and do not make trading recommendations.) ）