Source: Wind, Haomai Institute. Time period: 2018.1.2-2024.4.17
Today (2024/4/17) the market temperature is 14.69°C, which is in the greedy range. Due to the rapid rise in the market in the early stage, coupled with the nine articles that came out last week, there has been a relatively large pullback in the past two days, you can consider adding positions in the fall, the probability of this callback will not be as large as the wave a year ago, today's market has also seen a good rebound, and we will continue to observe later, we can grasp the rhythm of adding positions according to the thermometer.
1. Real performance
Last week (4.8-4.12), A-shares and overseas all fell, and the decline was not small, dragging down the performance of the real market. Among the underlying equity products, Niu Jibao fell 0.82%, a relatively small decline, Xingquan Enterprising Preferred performed poorly last week, down 1.93%, and in addition, Huaxia Jusheng Preferred held more small-cap stock funds and industry bases, which also fell 1.46%. The A-share market adjusted sharply on Monday and Tuesday this week, and the United States, Japan, India, and Vietnam markets in overseas markets also performed poorly, with a return of -3.95% since the inception of the real market as of 4.16 (-3.13% in the same period last week).
Data source: Haomai Research Center, Haomai Institute, weekly data time range 2024/4/8-2024/4/12
Friends who are interested in our real market, and want to see the specific position details of the real market, remember to join the Muqing core fund circle, and we will release the departure and position adjustment information in a timely manner, as well as answer everyone's doubtful real questions.
Second, the callback will increase the position
Recently, Overseas Win held the first quarter of the holders' meeting, and after listening to the whole live broadcast, I only had one feeling:
Overseas products, and buy and cherish.
We all know that QDII products will be limited by foreign exchange quotas, and now due to the popularity of overseas markets, many QDII funds have insufficient foreign exchange quotas, or are exhausted, and then they will be restricted.
For example, a while ago, ICBC India in the overseas win was restricted, so it bought the alternative fund Manulife India, and now Manulife India is also restricted, and it can only be bought at most 500 yuan a day, and the Indian stock market will rise again, and it is estimated that it will not be long before Manulife India cannot buy it. In that case, there would be no tools to invest in the Indian market.
Overseas Win currently deals with ICBC India with three alternative funds, which are, in order, Manulife India, Huaan Germany 30 (DAX) ETF Feeder C, and J.P. Morgan European Power Strategy C. Since Manulife India is limited to 500 yuan and Huaan Germany 30 is limited to 10,000 yuan, the system will automatically help new funds buy Morgan European Power Strategy C, which has a relatively sufficient amount.
That is to say, the structure of assets held by old customers and new customers is different, and the old customers hold the United States + India + Japan + Vietnam. New users buy the United States + Japan + Vietnam + Europe.
Will the India bought by the old user before be transferred to Morgan European Power?
The answer is no. The old users didn't buy it before, but the newly added foundation allocated what should have been rationed to India to Europe.
The current situation is that the alternative funds in Vietnam and Japan are all related to U.S. stocks, and once these two markets also begin to limit purchases, then overseas wins will not be able to achieve overseas multi-country asset allocation, so overseas wins will most likely not be able to buy.
Chart source: Haomai Research Center. The figure shows the proportion of countries that win overseas customers in different states
But there has been an adjustment overseas recently, is it still worth buying overseas wins?
Let's start with the conclusion, a pullback is a buying opportunity.
The recent pullback in U.S. stocks, mainly because the CPI data in the United States came out, found that it exceeded expectations, showing that inflation in the United States is very resilient, and the Fed's interest rate cut process and magnitude are expected to be lowered. Now that the AI-related market has entered a critical period of continuous performance verification, it has also made the volatility of U.S. stocks larger, and it is necessary to pay attention to the progress of AI applications and the development of AI. In order to cope with the risk of growth stocks, Overseas Win has reduced the proportion of the Nasdaq and increased the proportion of the S&P 500.
The Japanese market, the future needs to pay attention to whether the Bank of Japan's policy will turn, and the persistence of wage income and inflation in the first quarter, at present, the medium and long-term fundamentals have not changed, and the pullback is an opportunity to increase positions.
India's fundamentals and market conditions have not changed much, mainly focusing on the sustainability of earnings expectations, if there is an excess correction caused by non-profit in India, overseas wins will increase the allocation ratio.
In the case of Vietnam, we need to be cautious in the short term, and then wait a while, the key is the next change of key players in Vietnam.
If you are buying an overseas winning investment advisory portfolio, then it is good to leave the hard work to the manager with peace of mind.
3. What should I do if I don't keep up with the previous ones?
Don't worry, you can maintain the current time difference with the real market, and slowly make up for it one by one according to the rhythm of the real position.
Specifically, short-term money can be bought directly at one time, and medium-term money can be bought in 6 batches. Long-term money and pension money, according to the market conditions, you can first build 20% ~ 50% of the bottom position, and the rest of the part is bought in batches by way of weekly regular investment, and it is recommended that the position be completed within 3 months.
You can also poke "Millions of real markets start to build positions! keep up", "I want to be lazy" to start buying overseas to win" to understand the specific strategy of real trading and the rhythm of investment.
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Disclaimer: The content of this article is based on public information research and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make prudent decisions and bear risks independently.
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