Today is April 16, 2024, which should be familiar to the majority of retirees, because April 16, 2021 happens to be the date of pension adjustment.
Therefore, seeing this date, many retired elderly people are estimated to suddenly be curious, why this year's pension adjustment plan has not been announced, when will it be announced?
In response to some of the issues that everyone is concerned about, let's make a simple guess.
When will the pension adjustment plan be announced?
In this year's government report, it has been clearly mentioned that it is necessary to continue to improve the pension treatment of retired seniors, which directly reassures everyone, after the government report sets the tone, many retirees are concerned about when the pension adjustment plan will be announced?
As for when the pension adjustment plan will be announced, there is no fixed answer, from the point of view of the time point of the pension adjustment announcement in recent years, there is a big gap in the time of the announcement in different years.
For example, 2018 and 2019 were announced in March, while 2020 and 2021 were announced in April, and 2022 and 2023 were announced in May.
Judging from the law of this announcement time, it seems that it will be postponed for a month every two years, and according to this law, many people say that the pension adjustment time in 2024 will not be extended until June?
Personally, I don't think it will be, and the reason why the pension adjustment plan has been announced late in the past few years is directly because of the impact of the epidemic, which has led to delays in work in many places.
But now all aspects of the economy and society have returned to a normal state, so the adjustment time of pensions should return to the normal point in time.
Not surprisingly, the announcement of the 2024 pension adjustment plan should be between late April and late May, and perhaps the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security will announce it before May Day.
Let's predict again, how much will the pension adjustment plan be raised this year?
How much the pension can be raised is generally related to several factors.
One is the increase in the average social wage in the previous year, the second is the increase in fiscal revenue, the third is the increase in the income of the pension fund, and the fourth is the increase in the price level in the previous year.
However, judging from the actual performance of these data in recent years, the pension adjustment seems to be unnecessarily related to these data.
For example, in 2020, due to the impact of the epidemic, fiscal revenue and pension fund income have declined significantly, but the pension adjustment in 2021 will still reach 4.5%.
On the contrary, in 2021, the overall fiscal revenue and the income of the urban employee pension fund have increased significantly, of which the fiscal revenue increased by 10.7%, and the income of the urban employee pension fund increased by 36.23%, but the pension adjustment rate of that year was only 4%, which was 0.5 percentage points lower than the adjustment in 2021.
For example, the CPI in 2022 is 102, which is higher than 100.9 in 2021, but the pension adjustment in 2023 is only 3.8%, which is lower than in 2022.
It can be seen that there is no fixed answer to which data is specifically referred to for the pension adjustment range, and the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security will generally make a reasonable definition of comprehensive fiscal revenue, pension fund income, social average wage growth and CPI.
Referring to the pension adjustment in recent years, the pension adjustment in 2024 is likely to continue to decline, and now many people predict that the pension adjustment may fall below 3.5% this year.
However, I personally predict that the adjustment of pensions this year should be between 3.5% ~ 4%.