From April 10th to 13th, the 12th Energy Storage International Summit and Exhibition (ESIE 2024) was held in Beijing. Shu Yinbiao, academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, chairman of the Chinese Society of Electrical Engineering, and chairman of the 36th International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC), attended the opening ceremony and gave a keynote report entitled "New Energy Storage Supports the Construction of New Power System".
Shu Yinbiao pointed out that the mainland is speeding up the construction of a new power system, and the morphological characteristics of the power system will also undergo significant changes. It will change from continuously controllable to weakly controllable and highly uncertain power supply. It will change from a large power grid to a large power grid and a distributed microgrid and other forms of power grid. The distribution network will also change from a passive distribution network to an active multi-source load with extensive contact, and from the source with the load to the source-grid-load-storage coordination and interaction.
In this process, there are still some problems with the new energy storage in China. For example: Utilization is not high. In 2023, the average utilization rate index of power grid side, user side, and new energy compulsory distribution and storage projects will be 38%, 65%, and 17%, respectively. Safety issues often arise, battery energy density and capacity increase, some standards are missing, and safety risks increase.
In this regard, Shu Yinbiao said that focusing on the development needs of the new power system, it is necessary to strengthen overall planning, optimize the mobilization operation, increase policy support, focus on breaking through the key technologies of long-term energy storage, accelerate the construction of standard testing and certification system, and better play the supporting role of new energy storage.
To this end, Shu Yinbiao suggested that it is necessary to strengthen planning and guidance, optimize scheduling and operation, improve the market operation mechanism, strengthen key technological innovation, increase policy support, and accelerate the construction of standards and certification systems.
The following is the original text of the speech (with some condensed parts):
The development of new energy storage is of great significance and broad prospects for promoting the green transformation of mainland energy, ensuring the reliability of energy and power, and achieving the dual carbon goals.
The development of new energy storage in mainland China has achieved remarkable results, and the grid-connected scale has achieved leapfrog growth. By the end of 2023, the grid-connected capacity of new energy storage in mainland China has reached 31.39 million kW/66.87 million kWh. The average duration of energy storage reached 2.1 hours, and the annual increase was 22.6 million kW/48.7 million kWh, which is 10 times the existing scale at the end of the 15th Five-Year Plan, 3 times the new scale in 2022, and the new scale has exceeded the cumulative installed capacity for three consecutive years. Among them, in North China, Northwest China and other regions with rapid development of new energy, the capacity of new energy storage accounts for 27% and 29% of the country's total capacity.
The system of supporting policies is also constantly improving. The "14th Five-Year Plan" new energy storage planning and construction target of 27 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities exceeds 84 million kilowatts, and more than 600 supporting policies have been introduced across the country. Continental has incorporated the construction of new energy storage into the 14th Five-Year Plan for power development and the 14th Five-Year Plan for the modern energy system. It is estimated that by 2030, the scale of new energy storage in the country will exceed 150 million kilowatts.
Business models enable innovation and development. Provinces such as Guangdong, Shanxi, and Qinghai have also taken the lead in ensuring the expected benefits of the project. The capacity of new energy storage, including the operation mode of leasing and sharing energy storage, has also emerged. In Shandong, Hunan, Ningxia and other provinces with relatively large demand for system regulation, some independent energy storage and shared energy storage have accounted for 50% of the country's new energy storage capacity.
Coordinated development of multiple technical routes. The mainland has put into operation technologies such as large-capacity lithium-ion batteries, lead-carbon batteries, flow batteries, and compressed air energy storage, as well as gravity energy storage, liquid, and carbon dioxide energy storage.
Among them, the technology of lithium-ion batteries has reached the international leading level. In the past five years, energy density and cycle life have more than doubled, system costs have decreased by 60%, and the capacity that has been put into operation now accounts for 97.4% of the total capacity of new energy storage.
Some major countries in the world are also actively promoting the development of new energy storage. In the context of responding to climate change and low-carbon energy transition, the international community has vigorously developed new energy storage technologies to improve the regulation capacity of the power system and enhance the consumption capacity of new energy. For example, the European Union has successively introduced the "Battery 2030+" research plan and the new battery law. The purpose is to improve the safety, energy density, service life, economy, environmental protection and other key technologies of the battery.
The United States also focuses on the research and development of long-term energy storage technology, proposing to reduce the cost of long-term energy storage for more than 10 hours by 90% within 10 years.
The UK encourages the development of long-term energy storage, with plans to deploy 20 million kilowatts between 2030 and 2050.
Japan is also actively promoting the large-scale development of energy storage. It is estimated that by 2030, the scale of energy storage will also increase by 10 times compared with 2019, of which the scale of energy storage on the load side will reach 120 million kilowatts, accounting for 60% of the total capacity.
The mainland is speeding up the construction of a new power system, and the morphological characteristics of the power system will also change significantly. It will change from continuously controllable to weakly controllable and highly uncertain power supply. It will change from a large power grid to a large power grid and a distributed microgrid and other forms of power grid. The distribution network will also change from a passive distribution network to an active multi-source load with extensive contact, and from the source with the load to the source-grid-load-storage coordination and interaction.
In this process, the technical requirements for the power system to maintain a continuous and reliable power supply in real time will not change. Therefore, the new power system is inseparable from the strong support of new energy storage.
We must follow the operation laws of the power system and the economic laws of the market, adapt to the needs of different development stages and operation scenarios of the system, develop new energy storage step by step and differentiation, and help the construction of new power systems.
The construction of the new power system will be divided into three phases.
At the peak stage of carbon dioxide emissions (between now and 2030), the electricity consumption of the whole society. To reach 11.8 trillion kilowatt hours, the total installed power generation capacity will reach 4 billion kilowatts, 80% of the new electricity demand will be met by clean energy, and the proportion of clean energy power generation will increase from the current 38% to about 50%.
In the deep low-carbon stage (2031-2050), the electricity consumption of the whole society will reach 15 trillion kilowatt hours, and the total installed power generation capacity will reach 6.2 billion kilowatts, and the new power demand will all be met by clean energy and deeply replace the existing stock of coal power, the proportion of coal power generation will be reduced to less than 10%, and the proportion of new energy power generation will be increased to more than 80%.
In the carbon neutrality stage (2051-2060), the electricity consumption of the whole society will reach 16 trillion kilowatt hours, the total installed capacity of power generation will reach 7 billion kilowatts, the power generation of clean energy will account for more than 90%, and the installed capacity of new energy will be 5 billion kilowatts, of which distributed photovoltaic will account for more than 20%.
Based on the above background, the new energy power system will face a huge demand for regulating resources. The new power system has the double high characteristics of a high proportion of new energy and a high proportion of power electronic equipment, which increases the difficulty of ensuring power security and supply, and the demand for system regulation resources will continue to expand.
From the perspective of daily regulation demand, the current maximum daily power fluctuation of new energy exceeds 300 million kilowatts, accounting for 22% of the maximum load, and it is expected that by 2060, the maximum daily power fluctuation of new energy will exceed 1.6 billion kilowatts, accounting for 40% of the maximum load.
From the perspective of the demand for seasonal adjustment, the impact of climate change factors and extreme weather on the planning, production and operation of the power system is also intensifying. There is a great deal of uncertainty on the power generation side, the grid side and the load side.
When there is no wind, extreme cold and no light, etc., the problem of power supply and system balance will be more difficult. The difficulty of predicting the output and load of new energy is also increasing, and the energy storage technology to meet the demand for long-term balance is also in urgent need of breakthroughs. The strong volatility of new energy output will lead to the shortage of power supply and the abandonment of electricity at the same time, and it is necessary to continuously improve the regulation capacity of the power grid to solve the problem of abandonment and shortage.
New energy storage is an important technical means to ensure the safety, reliability and economy of the system. The new energy storage has the advantages of short construction period and flexible layout, which can cope with the fluctuation of new energy output and the demand for multi-source loads, and can quickly respond and dynamically adjust to provide frequency and voltage support, and improve the resilience of the system. A study by the Renewable Energy Laboratory in the United States shows that when the penetration rate of photovoltaics exceeds 50%, there is a positive correlation between the energy storage capacity required to maximize the consumption of photovoltaic power generation and the growth of photovoltaic penetration rate under the premise of system safety. The penetration rate of photovoltaic power generation in the mainland has reached more than 6%. The demand for capacity for energy storage will also continue to grow.
On the power supply side, new energy storage and new energy are combined to improve the level of new energy consumption and utilization, frequency and voltage support capacity and the safety performance of network setting, and enhance the regulation capacity through the complementary mode of wind, solar, water, fire, storage and multi-energy, so as to promote the large-scale development, delivery and local consumption of new energy.
On the power grid side, it is necessary to give full play to the functions of energy storage, such as frequency regulation, peak regulation, and voltage regulation, accident backup climbing, black start, etc., to improve the recovery ability of the system to resist emergencies and failures, enhance the power supply guarantee capacity of key nodes of the system and weak areas at the end of the power grid, and effectively delay and replace the investment in power transmission and transformation equipment.
On the load side, relying on the configuration of new energy storage such as distributed new energy and intelligent microgrids, the ability of distributed new energy to consume on the spot, the reliability of power supply and the ability of flexible conditions on the user side are improved, and the cost of credit operation and user use is reduced.
There are three main types of new energy sources according to their functional positioning.
The first is the self-generated and self-used type. It is mainly configured on the load side, in the form of "distributed new energy + energy storage", to meet the electricity needs of industrial parks and large industrial users, and through the price mechanism of peak and valley electricity prices, peak electricity prices, etc., so that users can recover costs and maintain profits.
The second is the system guarantee type. It is mainly deployed on the grid side, and large-capacity new energy storage is used as a system regulating resource to ensure power supply and demand. Enhance the resilience of the system, and obtain allowable cost-price benefits through price mechanisms such as capacity electricity prices, transmission and distribution prices, etc.
The third is market management. The new energy storage, which is mainly deployed on the power supply or load side, can participate in market transactions independently or by connecting to virtual power plants and load aggregators, and obtain benefits by judging market price trends and optimizing bidding strategies.
The research shows that in the current price mechanism and market environment in the mainland, the user-side distributed photovoltaic plus energy storage is configured according to a reasonable capacity, and when the peak-to-valley price difference is greater than 7 cents, its rate of return can be greater than 4%, and the full return investment can be realized during the operation period. At present, there are 16 provinces with the largest peak-to-valley price difference of 7 cents in the country, and the user-side distributed photovoltaic plus energy storage model has good development prospects.
The development level of new energy storage industrialization in mainland China needs to be improved. At present, China has surpassed the United States to become the world's largest energy storage market. However, as a strategic new industry, the sustainable development of new energy storage still faces a series of problems.
First, the utilization rate is not high, the feed-in tariff and charging price of independent energy storage power stations in some areas are not clearly positioned, the capacity electricity price policy has not yet been introduced, the price fluctuation of the spot market, the instability of the energy storage income model, the average utilization rate is low, and some problems exist to varying degrees. According to statistics, in 2023, the utilization rates of the power grid side, the user side and the new energy strong distribution projects will be 38%, 65% and 17% respectively.
Second, security issues cannot be ignored. With the increase of battery energy density, the expansion of energy storage equipment, especially the large number of electrochemical energy storage series and parallel, continues to increase safety risks. In addition, some standards for general planning and design, life testing, etc., are not perfect, and the testing and verification standards for safety and reliability at the system level of energy storage power stations are still blank.
Mainland battery exporters face the problem of carbon footprint accounting and certification under green trade barriers. This is reflected in the fact that the boundary of carbon emission accounting in the mainland is different from that of the EU, resulting in the inability of enterprises to obtain the carbon emission data of some supply chain links under the requirements of the EU; second, the key industries included in carbon emission accounting are not very consistent, resulting in a relatively large gap in the scope of the existing carbon footprint accounting guidelines and standards in the mainland; third, the data support system and basic database are still being created, resulting in the "overestimated" carbon emissions of products; and fourth, the lack of domestic accounting and certification capabilities, bringing high costs and the risk of technical information leakage.
According to EU rules, the submitted product accounting data needs to be certified by a qualified body. There are some head certification agencies in our country that are carrying out relevant work, but the international recognition of the institutions is not high, and export enterprises mainly choose European third-party institutions for certification. These agencies charge expensive fees, and in addition to the additional conditions for purchasing software, databases, etc., they also charge high consulting fees. In addition, due to the mandatory disclosure of export enterprises, carbon emission information in the whole process of product production may lead to the disclosure of technical secrets of enterprises.
Focusing on the development needs of the new power system, it is necessary to strengthen overall planning, optimize mobilization and operation, increase policy support, focus on breakthroughs in key technologies for long-term energy storage, accelerate the construction of standard testing and certification systems, and better play the supporting role of new energy storage.
First, it is necessary to strengthen planning guidance, formulate special plans for the development of new energy storage in the mainland, further clarify the medium and long-term development goals, spatial layout and key tasks, and strengthen new energy storage and distribution networks, new energy, The government takes the lead in organizing power grid enterprises to adjust demand, grid structure and load characteristics according to the characteristics of new energy resources, predict and timely release the demand for new energy storage to the whole society, and guide the investment and construction of various energy storage products by market means.
The second is to optimize the scheduling operation. Adhere to the market-oriented approach to optimize the scheduling and operation of energy storage, improve the new energy storage call mechanism, formulate new energy storage mobilization operation rules and standards, and clarify the mobilization technical requirements, mobilization relationships, functional positioning and operation modes.
We will continue to improve the utilization rate of energy storage, rely on modern information and communication technologies such as the "big cloud and mobile intelligent chain", implement the aggregation of large-scale energy storage clusters, smart transportation and distributed energy storage, adapt to the needs of source-grid-load-storage coordination and interaction, and promote the change of energy storage to the operation mode of charging and discharging.
The third is to improve the market operation mechanism, speed up the construction of the spot market, improve the relevant rules for new energy storage power stations to participate in the electric energy market and auxiliary service market, and promote the integration and multi-purpose of new energy storage power stations through the implementation of peak electricity prices, moderately widening the peak-to-valley price difference, reasonably expanding the price limit range of the spot market, and improving the level of auxiliary service compensation. Time-sharing multiplexing, comprehensively considering the system regulation demand and terminal electricity price affordability, improve the formation mechanism of energy storage electricity + capacity price, and explore the establishment of mechanisms such as incorporating alternative energy storage costs into transmission and distribution price recovery.
Fourth, strengthen key technological innovation. Establish and improve the new energy storage technology innovation system with enterprises as the main body, market-oriented, and the integration of production, education, research and application, and strengthen the research and development of technologies such as electrochemical energy storage thermal stability, system integration, cascade utilization, and nanotechnology materials around key technical indicators such as improving safety and cycle life. Explore the new generation of high-energy-density energy storage technology routes such as sodium-ion batteries and solid-state lithium-ion batteries. It is necessary to develop energy storage technologies such as hydrogen energy storage, mechanical energy storage, and lava energy storage for more than 6-10 hours, as well as active network energy storage technology to support system operation, and promote "photovoltaic storage, direct and flexible" buildings.
Fifth, we should increase policy support and reduce non-technical costs such as taxes, financing, and interest rates. In terms of grid-connected scheduling, green finance, etc., policy support will be given. Relying on leading enterprises with core competitiveness, cultivate and extend upstream and downstream industries, and attract more talents, technology, information and other elements to the new energy storage industry.
Sixth, speed up the construction of standards and certification systems, and strengthen the normative guidance and safety guarantee role of standards. Establish and improve the standard system of the whole industry chain of new energy storage, focus on promoting the development of safety, quality, environmental protection and other standards, improve the management of safety design, testing and acceptance certificates for access to the power grid system, accelerate the construction of a carbon footprint accounting standard system for new energy storage products in response to international green trade barriers, establish a carbon footprint technology database, strengthen bilateral and multilateral international energy cooperation and establish a mutual recognition mechanism for carbon footprint and testing and certification body qualifications with major trading partners, and promote international mutual recognition of the green value of electricity.
(Energy storage 100 people according to the evolution shorthand, without my own review)
Source: International Energy Network WeChat public account