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In the first half of April, the domestic ABS market rose at a high level, and the spot prices of various grades rose in different ranges. According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of April 15, the average price of ABS sample products was 12,350 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.55% from the price level at the beginning of the month.
Basic surface analysis
Supply level: In the past half month, the domestic ABS industry has undertaken the adjusted pattern of load reduction in the early stage, and the operating rate at the beginning of the month was close to 62%. With the centralized maintenance of PetroChina, Tianjin Dagu, Shandong Haijiang and other enterprises, the industry load has dropped to about 56% by the middle of the month.
The load of ABS polymerization enterprises continued to be low, and the output remained at a low level. In the past two weeks, the total domestic output was 186,100 tons, the market supply tightened, and the inventory level of production enterprises declined. The supply side has generally strengthened its support for ABS spots.
Cost factors: In the first half of the month, the upstream trend of ABS rose together, of which the acrylonitrile market went all the way up. The price of raw material propylene and liquid ammonia fluctuated upward, and the cost continued to support acrylonitrile; the load of acrylonitrile device declined in a narrow range, the supply volume declined, and the main enterprises actively raised prices, forming a good support for acrylonitrile; the downstream consumption situation is mainly based on rigid demand, and it is expected that the acrylonitrile market in the future market may be dominated by high-level range shocks.
In the first half of April, the domestic butadiene market rose at a high level. The prices of external markets and domestic manufacturers remained firm, and some auctioned goods were traded at a premium to support spot prices. The Shenghong refining and chemical unit has not yet resumed work, and at the same time, the satellite chemical Lianyungang unit has entered maintenance, the domestic output has fluctuated downward, and the butadiene supply side has been affected by favorable factors. The consumption of the main downstream industries is flat, and it is expected that the butadiene market may return to the market in the future.
The styrene market has been equally positive for half a month. Driven by the six consecutive rises in international oil prices in the first week of April, the cost of styrene has strong support. The superimposed port inventory was digested smoothly, the terminal demand gradually recovered, and the styrene market continued to rise. At present, the news of the arrival of goods at the port is still small, but the spot price has risen to a small peak in the range, and the willingness of the downstream to receive goods is reduced, which may affect the rise of styrene in the future.
On the demand side: in the first half of April, the main terminal demand for ABS was stable, the overall load of the factory was stable and small, and the stocking operation was mainly purchased. Considering the high price of ABS, buyers' resistance to high-end supply has gradually become prominent. Recently, traders have reported highly, and the trading on the floor is average. The demand side has helped the ABS market to be flat.
Technical analysis
The ABS market outlook may continue to rise in a narrow range. According to the forecast model of the commodity market analysis system of the business community, since January 14, 2024, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30-day moving average to start an upward trend, and the current two moving averages continue to rise together. According to the calculation of 2024/4/14, the probability of a change in the operating situation (that is, the 7-day moving average crossing the 30-day moving average) in the next 7 days is 39.13%.
Historical price monitoring: Since the beginning of 2024, ABS prices have continued to be in an upward channel. The current monitoring level is a one-year high, a two-year median, and a three-year medium-low level. According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average price of ABS in the past three years is 13442.24 yuan/ton, the median value is 14475 yuan/ton, the minimum value is 10300 yuan/ton, the maximum value is 18650 yuan/ton, the bottom difference (the lowest price difference in the past 3 years) is 2050 yuan/ton, and the top difference (the highest price difference in the past 3 years) is -6300 yuan/ton.
Forecast for the future
In the first half of April, domestic ABS prices rose at a high level. From a fundamental point of view, the start of ABS polymerization plants is still at a low position, and the supply tends to be tight. The market outlook of the three upstream ABS materials tends to be high and firm, and the support level of the ABS cost side is expected to be strong. As the price of ABS is at a high level in the range, it affects the entry of some buyers. At present, the demand side just needs to stock up, and the help for spot is general. From a technical point of view, the probability of the 7-day moving average crossing the 30-day moving average below the 30-day moving average is unlikely in the short term. To sum up, it is expected that the ABS market may run strongly in the short term.