The introduction of the "National Nine Articles" has injected a clear stream into the A-share market, and the construction of the investment side has been placed in a more important position in history, which is bound to have a significant impact on the A-share ecology.
Private equity boss Dan Bin said: It is estimated that the era of 'speculation' for a living is about to become a thing of the past, and institutions will survive the fittest in the "stock pool". Yesterday, the big blue-chip big white horse went straight to the moon for nine days, and the small-cap micro-disk fell to the ground like a galaxy, and it seems that the main force is using actions to show the market: value investment will become the mainstream orientation! What will happen to the style and investment pattern of the A-share market?
Below, let's stand on the macro and micro perspectives, do a comprehensive and in-depth reliable analysis, friends, please read it carefully!
Perspective the stock market puzzle, insight into the trend of the industry, grasp the investment opportunities, be a person who understands the stock market, and make a clear investment!
1. The new "National Nine Articles" will set up the banner of A-share value investment
Financing is the most basic function of the capital market, but a healthy capital market must be a market that balances investment and financing, and a market where most investors can make money is by no means a market that dries up and fishes.
The most gratifying and encouraging thing about the new "National Nine Articles" is that it does not always emphasize the financing function as in the past, and this time it is particularly important to strengthen the construction of the investment side, and adhere to the people's nature and high-quality development of the capital market construction have become the most shining "keywords".
The institutional design of the "National Nine Articles" is very highlighted:
1. Increase the intensity of delisting and reduce the value of "shell" resources - aiming to clear out the "bad";
2. Improve the investment value of listed companies, strengthen cash dividends, and improve the system of rules for reducing holdings - aiming to leave a "better";
3. Improve the issuance system and strictly control the listing access - aiming to introduce "very good";
4. Strengthen trading supervision, promote the smooth operation of the market, and strengthen long-term investment power - aiming to build a "good".
It can be said that the new "National Nine Articles" have both diligently and vigorously cleaned up the root causes, eliminated stubborn diseases, and greatly improved the investment value of A-shares, which is a major benefit in the medium and long term. The introduction of the new "National Nine Articles" will inject a clear stream into A-shares, set up a banner of value investment for A-shares, and promote A-shares to go out of a new style, new fashion and new style. This is not just a matter of talking, but something that will be accomplished by the joint efforts of policy and the market, and something that is very likely to be achieved in the future. In two or three years, let's look back and find that the A-share market in 2024 is the beginning of a new round of value investment.
The direction of the policy has changed, and the direction of the market has changed, as an investor, we must adjust our thinking in time to keep up with the pace of the market. Although the dark horse is highly optimistic about the current investment value of A-shares and the medium-term market, the short-term rhythm should still be paid attention to. Let's take a look at the new trends and rhythms of the market!
Second, market trends and hot topics
1. The market trend has changed dramatically, with high dividends and dividend indices reaching new highs, and micro-caps and small-cap caps falling miserably
Today's market style is not much different from yesterday, and it still continues the market of blue chips and micro-disks. The new "National Nine Articles" reshape the value investment pattern of A-shares, and the situation of "speculating on small speculation and new speculation on poor shells" in the past will naturally change, coupled with the strengthening of supervision of high-frequency quantitative trading, the investment value of small-cap underperforming stocks has plummeted, and the main institutions need to update the "stock pool" and choose the opportunity to adjust their positions and exchange shares for high-performing stocks. In the past two trading days, the market movement has also clearly shown this.
Micro-cap stocks have fallen sharply for the second day in a row, and old friends who have been following dark horses will not be surprised at all. As early as 4.8, it was clearly pointed out that the risk of micro-cap stocks should not be underestimated, and the medium line is not optimistic!
Since February, the micro-cap index has rebounded violently by 70% from its lows, and its nature is the self-help of a large number of quilted institutions that did not have time to retreat in the rapid market killing in January. Since it is self-help, it will naturally fall into adjustment after self-rescue, and the plunge in the past two trading days is actually a manifestation of the acceleration of the withdrawal of micro-cap stocks by major institutions.
After a continuous sharp decline, micro-cap stocks will trigger an over-falling rebound at any time, but the investment logic is weakened, the general trend has gone, and the medium line is not optimistic for the time being, so it is advisable to be cautious about buying the bottom. At the moment, I don't plan to touch micro-cap stocks and related targets.
The Dividend Low Volatility Index is a microcosm of value investment in A-shares in the past two or three years, and as a whole, it has walked out of the slow upward trend of gradually raising the bottom and gradually moving up the high. Its swing market is more rhythmic, and it is good at using the rhythm of ups and downs to make investments, which often has the effect of getting twice the result with half the effort.
In the chart, the two waves of A and D are both pullbacks generated by rushing to near the highs of the previous wave, while B, C, and E are all pullbacks generated by breaking through the highs of the previous wave. This trend rhythm tells us that it is not suitable to chase when rushing to the previous wave of highs or breaking through the previous wave of highs and falling sharply, the former is prone to a resistance callback, and the latter belongs to the construction of the band highs after the new high, and naturally it can not be picked up when it has just made a slight pullback at the top.
High dividends, dividends and low volatility have been strong recently, and now they are standing on the tuyere, and the upward trend is still maintained, but it is still necessary to be cautious when opening new positions, after all, it is close to the previous high, and the short-term rush is too fierce, so it is not a good time and a good habit to chase up. Small-level fluctuations are inevitable, and if the 10-day moving average on the daily line is not broken, it is not a big problem, and if the 10-day moving average is effectively broken, it is beware of the possibility of a wave of correction.
2. The downward space of stocks is limited, and the risk of individual stocks still needs to be paid attention to
There are CSI A50, SSE 50, CSI 300 and other core asset indices of the ultra-low valuation to set the Poseidon needle, coupled with the stability of the disk, the stock pointing to the downward space is limited, but the risk of individual stocks still needs to be paid attention to, especially the small-cap micro-disk poor performance stocks, don't feel that it has completely fallen in place after two days, and don't think that the small-cap micro-disk has rebounded and is going to rise again.
As I said earlier, the direction of the policy has changed, the direction of the market has also changed, value investment will gradually become the mainstream orientation, the market position of value blue chips will be improved, and the valuation center of gravity will be improved. Just when individual stocks fell to the ground, the CSI A50 and SSE 50 turned red again, and the market is expected to continue the style of "big and beautiful, excellent and rising" in the near future.
3. The investment logic of big health, big technology, and value blue chips
Big health, big technology, and value blue chips are the three directions that I am most concerned about at present, and they all have excellent investment logic.
Value blue chips: Since the second half of last year, mainstream funds have bought CSI 300 ETFs, and high-dividend assets and dividend indices have risen and fallen, setting off a wave of value blue-chip allocation. Now, the new "National Nine Articles" have reshaped the A-share value investment pattern and made it stand on the limelight again. In the past two days, small-cap stocks and micro-cap stocks have fallen beyond recognition, while the SSE 50, CSI A50, and CSI 300 have stabilized Taishan, isn't this the best proof?
Big technology: The fourth industrial revolution of mankind led by AI and a new generation of information technology is rolling forward, and a new round of science and technology boom has been set off under the background of the times. From the stock prices of technology giants such as Microsoft, Google, and Nvidia hitting record highs, to the technology wind in the first month or two of A-shares, it shows the super impact of the technology market. From a medium-term perspective, the technology market is still very interesting, AI is just emerging, how can the technology hype end so quickly?
Big health: As a social rigid demand industry, it can never be eliminated, which makes its medium and long-term certainty very high, and the accelerated arrival of an aging society will promote the accelerated release of market demand. The economic fundamentals of China's economy continue to improve, bringing long-term growth potential for residents' income, and providing sufficient impetus for the development of the medical industry. In the big health industry, innovative drugs are a subdivision track that I attach great importance to. In the first quarter of 2024, innovative drugs will be included in the "Government Work Report" for the first time in history, which shows that the policy attaches great importance to the development of innovative drugs and has become an important part of new productivity.
The precision medicine index covers many well-known A-share innovative drug leaders, such as Hengrui Pharmaceutical, Fosun Pharmaceutical, Tigermed, etc., with extremely high growth potential. Today, the valuation of the industry is in the historical bottom zone, the investment value is very prominent, and the investment value is very high after the long-term plunge.
Third, indexed investment is getting better
After the full registration system, the number of listed companies is increasing, and it is becoming more and more difficult to select stocks. For ordinary investors, investing in index ETFs and feeder fund products is a good choice.
The high-quality index does not fall like some individual stocks, as long as the amount of capital invested and the pace of investment are grasped, its overall risk is controllable.
For example, broad-based indices such as CSI A50, SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 800 have their own value attributes, and it is impossible to fall without a bottom line.
For another example, the semiconductor, medical, biological, CSI consumer and other industry indexes, as an industry that will not withdraw from the stage of human history, an industry with great development potential in the long run, and an index that will not die, is an excellent medium and long-term investment layout opportunity after the extreme plunge, after the risk is completely released, and the valuation bubble is fully squeezed.
Indexation investment is actually not difficult, it depends on whether there is a strategic pattern, whether there is courage and courage, and whether there is patience and determination.
The same market has different colors in the eyes of different people. In the face of the big fall, I see an opportunity, so in my eyes, the fall is a warm tone, and after a series of surges, it is a cold color that makes people shiver. What do you think?
Finally, please give a thumbs up, give encouragement and support, thank you very much!
The above content is personal opinion only and is not intended to be instructive. The mention of individual stock funds is only to record market views and the actual operation process, and accumulate materials for future creations, without making any recommendations, please do not blindly follow up. Past performance is not indicative of the future and investors should be aware of the risk of market volatility.