German Chancellor Olaf Scholz led a political and business delegation to visit China for the second time during his tenure. This in itself is just a normal diplomatic exchange between China and Germany, but recently the US media said that Scholz's visit to China this time is because European countries have begun to move closer to China again after former US President Trump has increased the likelihood of winning the next US president.
Is there any truth to the argument that the closer relationship between China and Europe is due to the change in the political wind in the United States?
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz
First of all, it must be pointed out that during Trump's tenure, he adopted a comprehensive America First strategy, not only against China, but also against America's own allies, which made other US allies, including the European Union, have bad relations with the United States during the Trump era.
Now that Trump is making a comeback, it is not surprising that Europe is worried. Germany is particularly prominent in this.
On the one hand, the German economy itself is the most dependent on globalization among the EU economies, and has close economic and trade ties with China and other major manufacturing countries in the world.
In addition, among the two pillars of the European Union, France is relatively independent and has not accepted the presence of American troops. Due to World War II, Germany has a large number of US troops stationed in the country, and the military expenses of these US troops are shared by the United States and Germany. But Trump is very dissatisfied with this, thinking that the United States is stationing troops in Germany to protect Germany, so how can the United States bear half of the military spending?
U.S. forces in Germany
For this reason, as early as his first term, Trump hoped that Germany would increase military spending and bear a little more on the US military stationed in Germany. Previously, there were even Western media reports that Trump said that if EU countries, including Germany, do not share more military spending for the United States, then even if Russia comes to the door, the United States will not care about NATO allies.
Against this backdrop, with the increasing probability of Trump's comeback, it is true that EU countries have indeed begun to plan ahead.
Second, whether Trump is elected or not will affect the relationship between Europe and the United States, but it may not affect the relationship between China and the EU, or more precisely, it will not affect the long-term strategic choice of China and the EU.
This can be understood from two perspectives. First of all, after Biden took office, he implemented the so-called "reorganization of the alliance system", actively courted the European Union, and wanted to "connect Europe to resist China", which did cause Europe and the United States to be closer in terms of public opinion and diplomacy, but from the substantive economic level, it did not affect the trade between China and Europe too much.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, US President Joe Biden
In the past few years, China has become Germany's largest trading partner, and most of the top 10 German companies are expanding their business in China, which is the best proof of this.
Since whether Trump or Biden are in charge of the United States, European companies are willing to invest in China, and Germany is willing to actively develop diplomatic relations with China, how can it be said that Scholz's visit to China is because Trump may make a comeback, so he is close to China?
On the other hand, from a geopolitical point of view, there is no fundamental conflict of interest between China and the EU. Although some big countries in the EU also want to extend their tentacles to the Asia-Pacific region, that is because the Asia-Pacific region is rapidly becoming the center of global economic growth, and if the EU wants to develop and grow, it can only take advantage of the trend.
More importantly, in reality, the former "European powers" have long since declined, and now they no longer have the ability to manipulate the political situation in Asia and extract a large number of colonial benefits from Asia.
EU countries
In this context, there is no strategic contradiction between China and Europe, unlike the United States, which is itself half of the Asia-Pacific country, and wants to compete with China for influence in the Asia-Pacific region.
And since there is no essential contradiction between the two sides, what reason does Europe have not to approach in the face of such a fast-growing economy as China?
In the short term, Trump or Biden's administration of the United States may have some different impacts and disruptions on China-EU relations, but in the long run, no matter who governs the United States, China and Europe, two economies that have no fundamental conflict of interests in the world and whose cooperation can bring common benefits to both sides, are gradually moving closer together, which is an unstoppable historical trend.
Finally, from the standpoint of the United States, the American media, with some exaggerated explanations, that Scholz's visit to China is because the EU is worried about Trump's comeback, so it is close to China in advance, which actually has two meanings.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump
The first is, of course, a bipartisan game in the United States. To put it bluntly, most of the mainstream media in the United States are pro-Democratic. Against this backdrop, some U.S. media have attributed the proximity of China-EU relations to Trump's possible comeback, which is actually an attempt to attack Trump and build momentum for the Democratic Party's election results.
The Republican Party said that the Democratic Party was "too soft" on China, and the Democratic Party said that if the Republican Trump was in power, then the European Union and other US allies would all turn to China.
Secondly, from a geopolitical point of view, after Biden took office, the United States is actually trying its best to bridge the differences with its allies, wanting to coerce the EU to deal with China, and for this reason, it does not hesitate to trigger the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, strengthen the EU's dependence on the United States, and the United States' manipulation of the EU.
But from the actual effect, Europe and the United States seem to be a little more united, and French President Macron no longer says that "NATO is brain dead", but says that NATO is reunited, but in fact, the two sides look at each other, and the differences of interests are becoming more and more serious, and no one can hide the fact.
French President Emmanuel Macron
To be specific, the plate of the world economy is so big, the United States and Western countries used to rely on the exploitation of developing countries to maintain their own extravagant life, the United States ate meat, Europe drank soup, everyone is naturally hello, I am hello, everyone.
But now that the United States is extravagant, and with the rise of China, it no longer accepts the exploitation of the United States, so that the United States can grab less food from the bowls of other countries in the world, and at this time, the United States naturally does not want to cede its interests to the European Union.
And without the involvement of interests, the United States still wants the EU to saddle the horse for itself, but the EU is certainly unwilling.
US-European relations
Since the divergence of interests between Europe and the United States is widening day by day, and EU countries are seeking to develop economic, trade, and diplomatic relations with China on the basis of their own interests, the United States cannot stop it if it wants to, so it is naturally inevitable to be vigilant. Now to say that Germany is moving closer to China because Trump is coming back is just an excuse for nothing more than anything can be done about it.