Bond Market Overview //
1. Open Market Operations
On April 15, the central bank launched a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 2 billion yuan in the form of interest rate bidding, and the winning interest rate was 1.8%. At the same time, a 100 billion yuan one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation was launched, and the winning interest rate was 2.5%, which was the same as before. Wind data shows that the reverse repurchase of 4 billion yuan expired on the same day, so the net investment in a single day was 98 billion yuan. In addition, 170 billion yuan of MLF is due this month, which will expire on Wednesday (April 17).
(*Data source: Wind-Central Bank Dynamic PBOC)
2. Funding side
The central bank's reverse repo operation continued to be at a level and fully hedged to maturity on the same day, the capital situation in China's interbank market remained loose, the weighted rate of major repo fell slightly, and the overnight price of non-bank institutional credit bonds was also stable and low. Traders said that the supply of government bonds and monthly routine tax payments have not yet arrived, there are not many liquidity disturbance factors at the beginning of the month, the overall supply is worry-free, and the short-term trend is expected to remain warm;
Overseas, the latest U.S. overnight financing guarantee rate is 5.31%.
(*Data source: Wind-International Monetary Fund Sentiment Index, Capital Composite Screen)
3. Interbank certificates of deposit
The latest trading volume of one-year interbank certificates of deposit of state-owned and major joint-stock banks was around 2.08%, close to the level of the previous day.
(*Source: Wind-Interbank Certificate of Deposit-Issuance Results)
4. The yields of major interbank interest rate bonds have mostly risen
(*Data source: Wind-Transaction Statistics)
5. Recent trend and data of interest rate spreads of various maturities of urban investment bonds (AAA).
(*Source: Wind-Spread Analysis)
6. Treasury futures closed mixed
The main 30-year contract rose 0.03%
The main 10-year contract rose 0.01%
The main 5-year contract fell 0.05%
The main 2-year contract fell 0.05%
Shared from Wind (*Data source: Wind-Treasury Futures)
News //
1. Vanke A explained the recent market attention to public opinion, saying that the company has indeed encountered phased operational difficulties and short-term liquidity pressure, but has formulated a package of plans to stabilize operations and reduce liabilities, which can properly resolve the phased pressure. The tax authorities conducted an inspection of Yantai Vanke, and Vanke did not refuse to pay the accounts, and the tax authorities did not determine that Yantai Vanke had the subjective intention to evade taxes. The investigation of Xiao Jin, general manager of Jinan Vanke, is a personal case and has nothing to do with Yantai's report; Regarding the rumor that "Vanke Group's vice president and above have been under border control", Vanke said that the group's management traveled normally abroad.
2. CITIC Securities pointed out that last week, under the influence of factors such as less than expected inflation in March and the fermentation of easy monetary expectations, long-term bond interest rates fluctuated slightly. Looking ahead, it is expected that the market will continue to be optimistic about the future of easy monetary operations such as interest rate cuts, RRR cuts and even deposit rate cuts, and the overall low operating tone of interest rates may continue.
Global Macro //
1. ECB Governing Council member Simkus said that after the June action, there is an expected opportunity for a rate cut in July, the trajectory of further rate cuts will depend on the July decision, the probability of more than three rate cuts in 2024 is more than 50%, the United States and the eurozone are independent jurisdictions, the interdependence between the United States and the eurozone lies in the economic aspect, the ECB interest rate will fall this year and next, and geopolitical shocks such as the escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran may cancel the decision to cut interest rates in June.
2. Choi Sang-mo, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Strategy and Finance, stressed that the government will do its best to play a necessary role in the event of severe volatility in the Korean financial and foreign markets. The inspection of the trends of the real economy should also be further strengthened.
Bond Events //
1. Moody's: Downgraded Hilong Holding Company Family Rating to "Caa2", Outlook "Negative"
2. Agile Group and others were executed 880 million
3. Xi'an Qujiang Cultural Investment: A settlement agreement has been signed between the subsidiary Tourism Group and SPDB Leasing on the contract dispute, and SPDB Leasing will apply to the court to withdraw the lawsuit in the future, and the restricted share freeze will be lifted
4. Standard & Poor's: Downgraded Longfor's long-term issuer credit rating to 'BB+', with a 'negative' outlook
5. Moody's: upgraded CATL's rating to A3 with a stable outlook
Negative Bond Events of the Week:
(*Source: Wind-Negative Bond Events)
The risk of non-standard assets of urban investment this month
(*Data source: Wind-Risk Monitoring RISK)
Upcoming Programs //
Every Monday at 3 p.m. from March 11th, Wind will join hands with Bank of Shanghai to bring a new series of Wind Live columns [In-depth Discussion on the Bond Market]!