来源：人大重阳 2024-04-15
Editor's note: On March 31, the report release and international seminar of the five-nation cooperation think tank was held in Beijing, at which the research report "Compound Interest of Major Countries: China's High-quality Development and Trends in 2035" was released. Nearly 20 Chinese and foreign experts and scholars from China, the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, Canada, Brazil, India and other countries, as well as representatives of embassies and consulates from more than 10 countries, gathered at Chinese Minmin University to discuss the prospects of China's economic development. Chen Wenling, Chief Economist of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, delivered a keynote speech in the "Keynote Speech and Seminar II" session. The transcript of the speech is published as follows:
I just listened to the forum last time, and I was very inspired. Mr. Li Daokui made a wonderful interpretation from the principles of economics, and there are two American experts, especially Mr. Tang Ruisi, a thinking scholar Mr. Luo Siyi, I have heard their speeches many times in the past, and they are very thoughtful and level.
The study released today by the five think tanks is very good. In this research report, there are several relatively big breakthroughs: First, there are breakthroughs in international cooperative research. In the past, there were many cooperative research projects between the two countries, and there were not too many substantive cooperative research conducted by scholars from the five countries, and in the future, more countries will participate in the study of China's development and future, which is very encouraging. Spanning ten years of research, thinking of 2035, their imagination has both a description of the future vision and a description of many scenarios, which is very attractive; Therefore, I am very appreciative of their research.
I would like to take this precious opportunity today to make a few comments.
The first point is that China's economy still has a lot of potential
As General Secretary Xi Jinping mentioned in his speech at the meeting with the US representatives: "China's economy is healthy and sustainable, especially China's development has gone through various difficulties and challenges to get to where it is today. That's a great thing to say. I recently read the content of the "Economist" article on "China's economic collapse" from 1990 to 2023 compiled by a scholar, and for decades, some Western scholars have said that China's economy is about to collapse since 1990, and until now, after the economic collapse theory was slapped in the face, the theory of China's economic threat has appeared one after another. The general secretary said that China's economy has not collapsed because of the theory of China's economic collapse, and it will not peak now because of the theory that China has peaked, and China's economy will not threaten anyone because of the theory of China's economic threat. Now there is the "summit theory", either the "collapse theory" or the "threat theory", and now the "summit theory", these theories will collapse with China's high-quality development.
In September last year, we went to the United States to conduct research, and before we went to conduct research, a Chinese colleague said, "You should be prepared, and this time all the units or think tanks you go to will ask you the same question: What is wrong with China's economy? Is China's economy about to collapse?" Therefore, one of the very important contents of our more than 10 dialogues in the United States over eight days was to discuss with American friends whether China's economy is about to collapse. And before that, US President Joe Biden once said that China's economy was going to collapse, and China's economy would be a time bomb for the world economy. We see that the time bomb has been set for too long, and until now this "bomb" has not exploded, not the United States, nor China, nor the world.
China's economy grew by 5.2 percent last year, and this year's government work report proposes an increase of about 5.0 percent. By 2035, China will basically achieve the goal of socialist modernization, and the research team of Renmin University predicted in 2020 that the average annual growth rate should reach 4.63% if China reaches the level of a moderately developed country by then. As you know, due to the epidemic, from 2020 to 2023, China's GDP will grow at an average annual rate of 4.5%, a difference of 0.13% from 4.63%. 5.2% last year and about 5% this year. I think that soon China's economic growth will be able to meet the country's long-term planning goal, which is to basically achieve socialist modernization by 2035. Reaching an average annual average of 4.63 per cent at the level of moderately developed countries is entirely achievable. We still have a longer-term goal, to basically build a modern socialist country by 2050, which is not a vertical power compared with ourselves, but a horizontal comparison, compared with the strongest country, we should be a strong country. The meaning of this power is multiple, not only the total GDP, but also to be a science and technology power, a network power, a manufacturing power, etc., the report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed to build more than ten powers. The initial top of China's economic development has already been outlined, but where is it? China will build itself into a great modern socialist country by 2050.
At this peak, will China continue to move forward? I think it will continue to move forward. So, how do you call a peak?
Peaking, just like our carbon emissions, will reach the peak of carbon emissions in 2030, and when it reaches this peak, it can no longer grow, this is the peak, which can only go down and not up. Carbon neutrality in 2060 and zero emissions, I think China's economic growth will be slower and slower, because it is getting bigger and bigger, but its quality will be higher and higher, and the momentum will be stronger and stronger.
The second point of view is that China will be a powerful driving force in an open world economy in the future
We know that it was originally said that China should integrate into the open world economy, and China is integrated. Now we have become an open economy, but the world's protectionism, unilateralism, decoupling and chain breaking, this series of practices are actually undermining economic globalization and taking the "way back". The leader of the "road back" happens to be the leader who originally promoted economic globalization, and this issue is very troublesome. So, in this case, China should insist on opening up. In his speech, General Secretary Xi Jinping mentioned that "we are planning and implementing a series of major measures to comprehensively deepen reforms". Therefore, China's reform goal is to open up to a higher level, institutional and leading opening-up, integrate with the open world economy, and become an important driving force for the open world economy.
Through opening up and reform, China will also unleash a series of motive forces and kinetic energy; we must reform the institutional mechanisms and institutional constraints that restrict the development of productive forces; we must reform backward production relations, and we must also promote reform of systems, standards, and rules that are anti-globalization and do not adapt to globalization. Therefore, China will become an important driving force or leading force for the promotion of an open world economy. Because the original promoters and leaders have now become opponents and barrier setters. Therefore, China still has a lot of potential to play a role in this regard.
The third point of view: China is promoting a major change in productivity and production methods, which will unleash very large potential and momentum
The most mentioned thing now is the new quality of productivity. What is the new quality of productivity? In essence, it is advanced productivity, high-quality productivity, green productivity, cutting-edge productivity, and sustainable development. We have made a structural breakthrough. For example, the new energy vehicles mentioned by Professor Li Daokui just now, our production and sales account for 60% of the world. During the discussion, some American friends said that China's fundamentals have not changed, so why is the gap between China and the United States widening now? Minister Zhu Guangyao just now touched on some problems that are difficult to explain; in fact, the United States has the illusion of false prosperity figures, but more importantly, China has made a relatively big breakthrough in cultivating new quality productive forces. To sum it up in 12 words:
1. Make up for shortcomings. In particular, Trump in the United States gave us 4 years, Biden gave us 3 years, and according to the "time left for the United States" discussed in the US strategic circles, there are only 10 years to decide whether to win or lose. Now that 7 years have passed, 7 of our 35 shortcomings have not been fully filled, and most of them have made breakthroughs. Breakthroughs have also been made in chips that have been severely suppressed by the United States; the restrictions of EDA software design packages have been made to catch up with Chinese enterprises, and our national software design package has taken shape; in terms of computing power, China has basic capabilities and computing power bases, and is building "Western Digital and Eastern Computing", establishing intelligent computing bases in 8 western provinces, and establishing hundreds of integrated big data computing centers across the country, and many leading enterprises also have their own computing systems. Of course, we still have shortcomings that we need to make up for as soon as possible.
2. Change tracks. Didn't some people say that China is catching up with you? I won't be chasing you, okay? I'll change the track. For example, China's construction of high-speed rail is a change of track, does the United States have it? No? You can't say that I copied you and plagiarized yours, right? Does the United States have the capacity for large-scale production of new energy vehicles? Including Apple's 10 years of electric vehicles, they have withdrawn. There are still many new fields, such as shipbuilding, China's shipbuilding capacity already accounts for 70 percent of the world's total, does the United States have it? No! I changed the track, and this track has been very successful, and it is unique in the world, and many industries have become industries with advantages compared with the world.
3. Forging long plates. It is to speed up the forging of many of our advantageous industries into long boards with the greatest advantages in the world.
4. Double circulation. It is to build a new development pattern in which the domestic and international dual cycles promote each other with the domestic cycle as the main body. Now the basic framework of the new development pattern has been formed, for example, in the progress of the Belt and Road Initiative, three-quarters of the world's countries have joined the Belt and Road Initiative, and a number of landmark projects have appeared in the decade of the Belt and Road Initiative, forming a dual-cycle pattern between us and these countries. For example, ASEAN has been China's largest trading partner for several years in a row, and China's trade and investment with countries related to the Belt and Road Initiative have seen the highest growth. China's development potential is very great, and according to the general trend of historical development, we are full of confidence in the future, and we are also full of expectations and longing for the future.
Thank you!
Source: Chongyang, National People's Congress