【Disk Analysis】
There is a lot of news on the weekend, but on the whole, it is mostly bearish, and with the promulgation of the "National Nine Articles", it will have a huge impact on the A-share market. April's performance test has put greater pressure on the index, and the national nine articles over the weekend have pointed out the way for the long-term development of the capital market, which may have a certain impact on market sentiment in the short term. Large-cap stocks VS small, medium and micro stocks have a seesaw effect, and the funds in the market have retreated significantly from the previous hot sectors such as non-ferrous gold, tourism and hotels, and turned into the blue-chip stock sector led by Zhongzitou, which has also made the market extremely polarized.
Riding a bull and watching a bear found that the new "National Nine Articles" were released, which will help boost market risk appetite in the short term and stabilize market confidence in the medium and long term. Recently, the valuation of the sector has fallen to a historical low, and the concern of stricter supervision has been clearly reflected in the stock price, and the national nine articles are expected to boost the confidence of the secondary market, and are optimistic about the Internet brokerages that benefit from the improvement in trading volumes, the target with strong integration expectations, and the head brokerage with low valuation. With the introduction of favorable policies and the gradual announcement of the performance appraisal in April, investors can pay attention to the scarce leaders whose performance expectations are relatively stable, as well as new stocks with relevant characteristics that exceed performance expectations and may improve expectations.
The three major indexes opened mixed, the number of red stocks in the two cities was less than 1,000, and the theme plate of transportation equipment, ships, wine and other sectors performed strongly, and gold, aquatic products, tourism and other sectors fell greatly. The ST sector fell sharply at the opening, with more than 30 shares falling at the auction limit, and more than 30 shares such as ST Hengjiu, *ST Civil Control, *ST New Textile, ST Tongzhou, ST Yushun, etc., issued the "Opinions on Strictly Implementing the Delisting System". Among them, the threshold for major illegal delisting triggered by two-year financial fraud has been lowered, and the delisting of serious fraud for one year and continuous fraud for many years has been added. The gold sector collectively weakened, Laishen Tongling, Zhongrun Resources and other stocks fell to the limit, Xiaocheng Technology, Mancaron and other stocks fell more than 10%, spot gold reached a record above $2,431 per ounce on Friday, and then fell all the way back and turned down more than 1%, down nearly $100 intraday.
Charging pile concept stocks opened higher, Taiyong Long March rose straight up, COSCO rose by more than 10%, Zhongding shares, Tongye Technology, etc., followed the rise, carried out the "100 counties, 100 stations, 10000 piles" pilot project, and strengthened the planning and construction of new energy vehicle charging and swapping facilities in key villages and towns. The new stock sector was active in early trading, Yongda shares 3 boards, Tongxing technology, Guanghe technology and other shares of the daily limit, since the CSRC "3.15" issued four documents in a row, A-share IPO into the freezing period, from the data, the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges have been zero acceptance during the year, the three major exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen in the past two months, nearly 100 companies took the initiative to terminate the review. The first plate of the Chinese word fluctuated and strengthened, COSCO rose more than 10%, CRRC rose 7%, and the stock price hit a new high in more than 4 years, CRRC announced that it is expected to achieve a year-on-year increase of 50%-70% in net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in the first quarter of 2024.
In the first quarter of 2024, the overall payment collection progress of the liquor industry is normal, the inventory removal is better than the same period, and the batch price performance exceeds expectations. High-dividend stocks continued to strengthen, PetroChina and China Shenhua both rose more than 3%, and the total market value surpassed ICBC to rise to the third place in A-shares, and China Shenhua hit a new high in the afternoon, and China Mobile, Sinopec, Shaanxi Coal, Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, etc. followed suit. In 2023, the dividend rate of many central enterprises has been significantly improved, and the dividend momentum is expected to be strengthened and the dividend rate is expected to be further increased under the policy constraints.
Market:
GEM:
【Market Prediction】
The Shanghai Composite Index returned to 3,050 points on Monday, and the trend was relatively strong, showing the rhythm of a mid-yang candlestick rebound. Judging from the current rhythm of A-shares, the seesaw of the Chinese word has started again, which has also made obvious changes in the market. In the absence of incremental funds into the market trend, this position is bound to have institutional funds to sell high and buy low, so this week's market volatility will be very large, everyone should pay attention to whether it is a real sell-off or a fake suppression. Next, pay attention to whether the Shanghai Composite Index can stabilize above 3050 points.
The ChiNext index returned to 1,800 points on Monday, but small and medium-sized micro stocks fell sharply, and the strong sector became an "outcast" last week. Judging from the current market situation, the Dow Jones index of U.S. stocks is still a downward trend, and the sideways trend of A-shares here is relatively firm, but from the overall pattern, the money-making effect is not so good, and many investors shouted: "Why is the index still 3000 points in this 1 month, but I have been losing money." "In the near future, it is better to be cautious, Brother Niu mentioned before that the rhythm of making a market in the second quarter will be significantly worse than that in the first quarter. Next, pay attention to whether the GEM index can stabilize above 1800 points.
【Gold Rush Plan】
The new "National Nine Articles" focus on measures such as strict control of listing, strict and continuous supervision, and increased supervision of delisting, and the market pays more attention to "strengthening the supervision of cash dividends", "restricting the reduction of major shareholders and implementing risk warnings for companies that have not paid dividends for many years or have a low proportion of dividends". Compared with the relatively strong economic data in the previous period, the recently announced March inflation and exports have fallen from the previous improvement rate, and the disturbance of internal and external factors has not hindered the recovery of the market, and the performance is good.
The concepts of transportation equipment, ships, and Chinese prefixes in the theme sector are the main participating sectors in the net inflow of funds, and the concepts of aquatic products, gold, and disperse dyes are relatively large sectors with relatively large net outflows. Riding the bull and watching the bear found that it has entered the financial report disclosure window period, the Spring Festival consumption is picking up, and it is expected that the first quarter report will be smoothly landed, focusing on the performance realization and the growth market brought by catalytic factors in the short term, and focusing on the main logic of consumption upgrading brought about by income improvement in the medium and long term. Under the trend of obvious concentration and differentiation in the liquor industry, it is recommended to pay attention to high-end and regional leading enterprises. Snacks, soft drinks, and beer among popular products maintained a high degree of prosperity, marginal profit performance improved, and the overall consumption recovery trend was clear.
The Spring Festival liquor consumption market performed well, and Moutai's 2023 annual report was generally in line with expectations, and the demand for high-end liquor market remained stable. In the long run, Moutai is still in short supply, and we believe that the market sentiment will gradually digest and become rational, and with the steady recovery of the macro economy, consumption power and consumer confidence will steadily recover.
The domestic tourism market during the Qingming holiday ushered in the first "volume and price rise" after the epidemic, demonstrating the vitality and resilience of tourism. Qingming travel data exceeded expectations, CPI other supplies and services performed well in March, which shows that the demand for travel remains strong, May Day tourism data may exceed expectations, and the travel chain market may be more sustainable than the previous New Year's Day market.
With the rising temperature and the blooming of spring flowers, tourists' willingness to travel is high, and the tourism data of many places has performed well, and the number of tourists and tourism revenue received by Beijing, Guangdong and other places have achieved good growth, and exceeded the level of the same period in 19 years. In the scenic spots, the tourist flow of many famous mountains and rivers has increased significantly, with Changbai Mountain Scenic Area receiving a total of 22,800 tourists, an increase of 850% over the same period last year, and Emei Mountain receiving a total of 73,258 tourists, an increase of 38.24% over the same period of 19 years, and many scenic spots have ushered in a short-term peak of passenger flow.