Author丨Leaf wheat ear
Editor丨Bao Fangming
Source丨21st Century Business Herald
The interest rate does not exceed 2.5%, and the national debt is once again gone!
According to the information on the official website of the Ministry of Finance, from April 10 to April 19, the first and second phases of the 2024 savings treasury bonds (electronic) will be officially issued, both of which are fixed-rate and fixed-term varieties, with the first phase of 3 years and an annual coupon rate of 2.38% and a maximum issuance amount of 22.5 billion yuan, and the second phase of the second phase with a term of 5 years and an annual coupon rate of 2.5% and a maximum issuance amount of 22.5 billion yuan, and the maximum issuance amount of the two phases combined is 45 billion yuan.
Whether online or offline, the current treasury bonds were immediately "killed" as soon as they were listed. Insiders believe that this situation of savings bonds is mainly due to the fact that in the context of the continuous decline in deposit interest rates, treasury bonds are actually a substitute for "quasi-deposits", and although the interest rate is low, savings bonds still attract the favor of many investors because of their safety and stability.
Some netizens commented, "I can't imagine why so many people grab it" and "I can't grab it at all"!
Netizen: I didn't grab anything
Not surprisingly, the treasury bond was "emptied in seconds" as soon as it was launched. "I was ready for it, I knew it would be difficult to grab, but I didn't expect it to be so difficult. I kept swiping my phone, but it was empty in seconds, and I was busy for half an hour, and I didn't grab anything. Lin Rong, a citizen of Guangzhou, told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter.
On April 15, the reporter consulted the account managers of a number of state-owned banks and visited the purchase area of the corresponding online app, and found that the three-year and five-year savings treasury bond products showed that the quota had been sold out.
Screenshot of mobile banking
"It's really hard to grab now, the treasury bond quota is allocated by the Ministry of Finance, and the quota of each bank is different, only distributed to the head office, and the branches do not split the quota, and the whole country grabs it together. So as soon as it goes online, it's basically 'seconds'. Offline is relatively good, but it's basically an hour or two thing. Li Lin (pseudonym), a financial manager of a large state-owned bank, told reporters.
Screenshot of mobile banking
In fact, this is not the first time that government bonds have been so sought after. The first wave of savings bonds in 2024 will be sold on March 10, and the Ministry of Finance has finalized a large order with a total issuance of 30 billion yuan, of which the interest rate for the three-year period is locked at 2.38%, and the five-year interest rate is 2.5%, and the popularity is also "bursting".
Screenshot of the Ministry of Finance's website
On social platforms, many netizens are also posting "I can't grab it at all" and "Who grabbed the national debt"?
Only a few lucky winners who grabbed it said: "It's not easy".
Why is it difficult to find a debt?
Wang Pengbo, chief analyst of the financial industry of Broadcom Consulting, also believed in an interview with the reporter of the 21st Century Business Herald that "a debt is hard to find", which is actually expected and reasonable.
Screenshot of mobile banking
"Since last year, bank deposit rates have fallen again and again, which has increased the attractiveness of government bonds, which is one of the most important reasons for the popularity of government bonds at present. Secondly, the investment side has been weak in the past two years, whether it is the stock market or the property market is still in the process of adjustment, and market funds are more willing to wait and see rather than participate in it, which has led to the inflow of some funds into deposits and savings treasury bonds. The third is that the stability of treasury bonds is relatively high, although the interest rate is not high, but it also meets the requirements of some investors for safety. ”
Wang Pengbo believes that judging from the hot sales of savings treasury bonds, in fact, there is still a lot of funds in the market at present, and treasury bonds are actually similar to "quasi-deposits" and are a substitute for long-term deposits. At present, in the context of the continuous decline of deposit interest rates and the gradual disappearance of long-term large-amount certificates of deposit, investors hope to lock in future returns through treasury bonds.
The interest rate on savings bonds does not exceed 2.5%, which is still higher than that of large banks in the same period
The 21st Century Business Herald reporter noticed that while saving treasury bonds "for a second", an interesting phenomenon is that the coupon rate of treasury bonds has actually fallen compared with last year.
Taking savings bonds (electronic) as an example, compared with November 2023, the coupon rate of the 3-year savings bond issued at that time was 2.63% and the coupon rate of the 5-year treasury bond was 2.75%, both of which decreased by 25 bps this year. If we extend the time to the beginning of 2023, the decline will be even greater, when the interest rate on the three-year savings bond (electronic) was 3% and the interest rate on the five-year savings bond (electronic) was 3.12%, both of which are more than 60bp lower than the current coupon rate.
Yang Haiping, a researcher at the Securities and Futures Research Institute of the Central University of Finance and Economics, judged that there is still room for the interest rate of savings bonds to be lowered in the future. "In order to stabilize the economy and return prices to the expected price level, there is still the possibility of interest rate cuts in monetary policy, which will drive down the yield of Chinese bonds and the interest rate on savings bonds. ”
Who's buying Treasury bonds?
From the current point of view, among the customers who buy savings bonds, middle-aged and elderly customers are still the largest "supporters", especially offline buyers. "Many of them are retired at home, and the banks have not yet opened their doors to queue up, but in recent years, there has been a trend of gradually getting younger, but at present, more than half are still elderly. Li Lin told reporters.
Compared with deposits, savings bonds do have a certain attractiveness. At present, the three-year fixed deposit listed interest rate of the four major banks (Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China) is 2.35%, and the five-year listed interest rate is 2%~2.4%. The market monitoring data of the Rong 360 Digital Technology Research Institute1 also shows that the average interest rate of three-year time deposits of state-owned banks in March was 2.369%, and the average interest rate of five-year time deposits was 2.388%. The above-mentioned deposit interest rates are basically lower than the interest rates of savings bonds of the same maturity.
Judging from the data of large-value certificates of deposit, in March this year, the interest rates of three-year and five-year large-denomination certificates of deposit of large state-owned banks were 2.35 percent and 2.4 percent respectively, and the interest rates of three-year large-denomination certificates of deposit of joint-stock banks were 2.586 percent, and the five-year large-denomination certificates of deposit almost disappeared. According to this comparison, the interest rate on savings bonds is indeed relatively "fragrant".
Bank deposit rates are likely to continue to fall
In addition, there is still a high probability that bank deposit rates will fall in the future.
The research report of CITIC Securities pointed out that from the perspective of the time pattern of deposit interest rate cuts, the time interval for the adjustment of deposit listed interest rates ranged from 3 to 9 months, but the time interval was significantly shortened in the past year.
CITIC Securities judged that considering that there will be adjustments in 2022 and April 2023, it does not rule out the possibility that the deposit rate will also be lowered in April this year. In addition to the exemplary role played by the big banks in further lowering the interest rates on deposits, it may also be to control the issuance scale or pricing level of some special deposit products, so as to reduce the space for banks to "attract deposits at high interest rates".
With the 5-year LPR all the way down, the deposit rate has also become a consensus in the industry. A picture review ↓
Liu Yinping, an analyst at Rong 360 Digital Technology Research Institute, believes that the overall bank deposit interest rate will show a downward trend in 2022, but due to the high enthusiasm of the people for deposits, they tend to buy medium and long-term deposits with higher interest rates, the proportion of bank fixed deposits has increased, and the deposit cost rate has also risen.
From the perspective of interest rate trends, this year, banks' ordinary fixed deposits and large-amount certificates of deposit have shown a trend of rising short- and medium-term interest rates and stable and declining long-term interest rates. From the perspective of different types of banks, state-owned banks have played a leading role in controlling the cost of collecting deposits and lowering interest rates, and the interest rates on various deposits are lower than those of other banks, and the interest rate gap with other banks has widened since the beginning of this year.
Talking about investors' enthusiasm for investing in government bonds, Yang Haiping, a researcher at the Securities and Futures Research Institute of the Central University of Finance and Economics, suggested that government bonds should be sold over the counter to increase the quota, which can benefit more investors and residents. "In the case of over-the-counter sales, we can consider limiting the purchase quota of individual residents, supplemented by online subscription arrangements. Yang Haiping said.
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