1. Highlights of the week

Chief Core Opinion Set (08 April – 14 April 2024)

Lian Ping (President and Chief Economist of Guangkai Chief Industry Research Institute): Macro policies have increased strategic expansion

In 2024, China will further implement a proactive fiscal policy to support economic growth by appropriately strengthening and improving quality and efficiency. Policy measures include the issuance of additional ultra-long-term treasury bonds, the increase of local government special bonds, the implementation of structural tax and fee reductions, and the expansion of fiscal expenditure. These measures aim to enhance disaster prevention, mitigation and relief capabilities, stabilize investment, make up for shortcomings, and benefit people's livelihood. In 2024, China's monetary policy will strengthen the dual adjustment of aggregate and structure, maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity, and may further cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates. The policy objectives are to reduce the financing cost of the real economy, expand domestic demand, support the steady and healthy development of the real estate market, boost the confidence of the capital market, and improve the willingness and ability of banks to lend.

The key to this year's macroeconomic policy lies in the close coordination of fiscal and monetary policies, as well as the coordination and coordination of other policies such as employment, industry, region, science and technology, and environmental protection. The policy goal is to form a synergy, ensure the same direction, avoid conflicts between different policies, fully mobilize the enthusiasm of business entities, and jointly promote high-quality development.

The paper puts forward a series of policy suggestions, including reasonably raising the level of government debt, enriching monetary policy tools and means, and increasing financial support for real estate enterprises. These proposals aim to further promote steady economic growth, strengthen macroeconomic policy adjustment, and solve problems such as unstable expectations, lack of confidence, and weak demand at the micro level. Overall, in 2024, the Chinese government will respond to the complex and severe domestic and international economic situation through more proactive, flexible and powerful macroeconomic policies to ensure stable and healthy economic development.

Yang Delong (Chief Economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund): Multiple factors have driven the international gold price to continue to hit new highs, and high-quality assets are deployed on dips and waiting for the value to return

Despite the market volatility, the gold and non-ferrous metals sectors outperformed, while the liquor sector declined, showing a divergence in the market structure. Despite this, the market has repeatedly oscillated above 3,000 points, indicating that the market is brewing a second wave of upward trend.

The current market is still in the all-time bottom zone, and the CSI 300 is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio close to its all-time low. From the perspective of sentiment indicators, the issuance of new funds and the trading volume of the two markets both show that the market has the characteristics of the bottom. In the economic transformation, the growth of traditional industries has slowed down, while emerging economic fields such as new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, etc. continue to rise, and the new energy vehicle industry has performed particularly well, driving the recovery of related industrial chains.

The rapid rise in gold prices is related to a variety of factors, including international turmoil, expectations of possible interest rate cuts in the United States, and the increase of gold reserves by many central banks. These factors have combined to drive the price of gold higher and are expected to remain strong for some time to come. The authors recommend hedging risk by investing in physical gold or related financial products.

April is a dense period for earnings disclosures, and companies with good performance are likely to rebound. In particular, it is pointed out that although the liquor sector has fallen in the short term, it still has investment value in the long run. Consumer white horse stocks have strong profitability and are expected to move through the economic cycle.

During the holiday season, tourist attractions are overcrowded, showing strong demand for tourism consumption, which is an important driver of economic recovery. At the same time, the article points out that the mid-to-high-end consumption has declined, and it is necessary to stimulate consumption willingness by increasing the employment rate and residents' income level.

During U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's visit to China, she sent a positive signal that the stability of the U.S.-China trade relationship is conducive to the recovery of the global economy. The author believes that China's economy has begun to recover, and the increase in policies to stabilize economic growth is conducive to the strengthening of the capital market. It is recommended that investors invest in high-quality stocks and funds on dips, wait patiently for the value to return, and be optimistic about the market's shock recovery, believing that the prospects for economic recovery will continue to improve, and the capital market is expected to usher in structural market opportunities.

2. Economic outlook

Yu Xiangrong (Chief Economist, Citigroup Greater China): Re-examine the cyclical view of China's growth

Since the beginning of the year, China's economy has shown more than expected growth, especially the downward trend in real estate has converged, and the implementation of policies to stabilize growth is accelerating. The authors are cautiously optimistic about China's medium-term growth outlook and have raised their full-year GDP growth forecast to 5%.

The economy is off to a good start: While real estate remains a drag, the export chain and industrial production have picked up. PMI data for the manufacturing and services sectors showed that economic activity is improving, and the CPI inflation indicator is also back in positive growth territory. Manufacturing capital expenditure and infrastructure investment maintained solid growth. Convergence of the real estate decline: While the property sector has not yet fully recovered, it has not deteriorated further recently, with some indicators suggesting a bottom. In terms of policy, the government is optimizing the real estate policy and providing more support to stabilize the market and consumer confidence. Accelerate the implementation of policies to stabilize growth: The government has set a moderate GDP growth target and implemented a series of supporting policies, such as equipment renewal and trade-in of consumer goods. Fiscal spending has accelerated, monetary policy has been relaxed, and the government is optimizing the business environment and opening up to the outside world.

The article also warns of several potential risks, including the vulnerability of the real estate sector, the potential impact of energy consumption reduction targets on the industrial economy, the risk of local debt, and the uncertainty of the external environment, especially the US economic recession and the protectionist policies of the European and American industries in China. Overall, while China's economy is facing structural challenges, it is also showing some positive signs, and the full-year growth target is expected to be achieved. However, it is still necessary to pay close attention to the above-mentioned risk points to ensure stable economic growth.

Wu Ge (Chief Economist of Changjiang Securities): Economy, seeking change

In terms of domestic demand, measures such as "exchanging the old for the new" and relaxing purchase restrictions have continued. However, historically, if the total policy is moderate, it is difficult for real estate to change significantly. The rollover of debt by real estate companies seems to have accelerated, but non-performing credit has risen. The PMI employment sub-item is at a historical low, and the labor market will still constrain household consumption. Equipment modernization or form part of the support for the economy.

Overseas, U.S. economic data was significantly better than expected, and market trading even began to shift from interest rate cuts to "reflation". With the lagged impact of the "dovish" policy of major central banks in the early stage, the global manufacturing PMI has expanded and is expected to continue, which is conducive to the improvement outside the mainland. It is worth mentioning that the United States and Europe have adjusted their trade policies more frequently, and "going overseas" is facing greater uncertainty.

In terms of prices, the price of black products, which is mainly priced in China, continues to diverge from the price of non-ferrous metals, which is mainly priced overseas, reflecting the differentiation of domestic and foreign demand. The combination of geopolitical risks and election years tends to boost risk aversion to support gold prices. The improvement of domestic PPI is waiting for the physical workload to be implemented. As the impulse effect of the Spring Festival fades, the CPI will fall back to zero growth rate again in the short term.

In terms of policy, the recent National Standing Committee proposed that real estate is "related to the overall situation of economic and social development", and the follow-up trends are worth observing. The established policies of the "two sessions" will be implemented one after another, but the high economic data at the beginning of the year and the recovery of external demand will make it unlikely that the aggregate incremental tool will be introduced. Statements such as "resolutely guarding against exchange rate overshoot expectations" indicate that the policy rate will remain stable and credit growth will continue to decline.

Zhao Jian (Founding President of Xijing Research Institute): China and the World: The Great Divergence and Rebalancing

China's economy is experiencing a structural recovery that exceeds expectations. The investment in internal circulation has shrunk, the power of external circulation has increased, and the manufacturing industry has picked up. The difference between global inflation and China's deflation gives China's exports a cost advantage. After the epidemic, China has become the main producer, exports have surged, and the renminbi has appreciated. In 2022, China is showing signs of deflation under global inflation, and it may absorb excess capacity through export capacity or domestic inflation. It is expected that in the next 1-2 years, the large divergence and rebalancing will dominate the macro asset allocation. Theoretically, there should be no "global inflation and Chinese deflation" in the global unified market, but the current situation shows a divergence, possibly due to the obstacles of globalization. The trend of deglobalization reflects de-sinicization, which is caused by competition, geopolitics, and cultural conflicts. China's economic rise brings challenges.

In the restructuring of international capital and industrial chains, capital seeks to reduce its dependence on China, but the scale of China's market and the depth of its industry make the process complicated. China has low manufacturing cost and high demand, and has been the world's factory for a long time. In China's industrialization and urbanization, the main reason for the rise in costs and the weakening of low advantages is the increase in land prices. Monetary policy may affect rising costs and affect stable growth. After three years of the pandemic, China's economy has shown resilience. In 2020-2021, China's supply was restored, and exports surged. In the second half of 2021, global inflation eased, China's overcapacity deflation, the government rectified real estate, local debt, and domestic demand was insufficient. The difference between global inflation and China's deflation has created a potential energy, helping to improve exports and strengthen external circulation. The recession of domestic demand shows the advantage of export costs and promotes the growth of external demand. Globalization provides a buffer against the crisis in China's economy, and an open and inclusive environment is needed. China's capacity is facing challenges in absorbing external markets. In terms of investment strategy, the divergence of commodity markets reflects changes in domestic and foreign investment. In the capital market, the A-share policy is uncertain, and there are investment opportunities in the recovery sector of external demand, and the Hong Kong stock market may be more certain.

Guo Lei (Chief Economist of GF Securities): From real growth to nominal growth

First, from the understanding of high-frequency data and economic data in the first two months, there are two bright spots in the economy in the first quarter of 2024: first, the export environment has improved, which has brought about a boom in the related manufacturing industry; second, the living radius of residents has been restored, and the activity of the service industry has risen; Since quarterly GDP is based on the production method, it can be roughly understood as a function of the added value of industry and the added value of the service industry, and the low demand of some links under the expenditure method will not necessarily bring about the same amount of production reduction (which can form inventory), so the real GDP in the first quarter is more likely to have a good start.

Second, but it is worth noting that the price pivot remained low in the first quarter. The CPI in the first quarter is expected to be around 0.1%, higher than -0.3% in the fourth quarter of last year, but the upward slope is not significant; the PPI hovered in the range of -2.5% to -2.7% in January-February, only slightly higher than the -2.8% in the fourth quarter of last year, and it will still be low in March from the current price signal. Therefore, in terms of nominal GDP, the change in the first quarter is likely to be more limited than that in the fourth quarter of last year.

Third, we can observe both of these characteristics through the China Business Conditions Index (BCI). From January to March, the BCI was 51.1, 51.6, and 52.1, respectively, which was significantly higher than the level after July 2023, but the BCI intermediate price outlook index hovered at a low level, at 35.6 in the first quarter, which was little changed from the average of the second and fourth quarters of 2023 (35.6, 35.2, 33.4). The differentiation between prosperity indicators and price indicators is more obvious (Figure), and the last round of similar situation was part of 2015-2016.

Fourth, why is the current nominal growth elasticity lower than the actual growth? From the perspective of PPI sub-items from January to February, the prices of products related to the construction industry chain such as coal mining, ferrous smelting, non-metallic minerals (cement, glass, etc.), and chemicals are significantly lower than the overall year-on-year. Composite indicators such as the South China Composite Index and the South China Industrial Products Index were all in a state of hovering in the first quarter, among which although copper prices and other prices rose significantly, coke, rebar and other downward products were dragged down. We summarized the "divergence between construction and manufacturing" in the first quarter, and this characteristic had a greater impact on nominal growth than real growth. In addition, according to the data of the Bureau of Statistics, the prices of some emerging industries with rapid supply growth are also in the negative growth range from the previous month.

Fifth, the significance of nominal growth to the economy should not be overlooked. First, the growth rate of fiscal revenue is synchronized with nominal GDP, taxation is a tax on the nominal value of economic activities, and the tax structure with value-added tax as the main body is more sensitive to prices; second, the growth rate of corporate earnings is synchronized with nominal GDP, and profits are determined by three factors: volume, price, and profit margin; and third, micro expectations are also affected by nominal GDP. Real GDP growth in the first quarter is expected to be not low, or even higher than expected, but nominal GDP still needs to improve further. During the same period, the Wind All-A Index was -2.9% month-on-month, and the 10-year Treasury bond yield pivot declined, which should be related to the fact that the elasticity of nominal GDP growth has not yet been formed.

Sixth, the policy has been concerned about the low price center and nominal growth center, and the central bank pointed out that "maintaining price stability and promoting a moderate price recovery are important considerations for grasping monetary policy". In addition to the monetary environment, there are three opportunities for the rebound of the PPI pivot in the subsequent period of 2024: first, the incremental broad fiscal is expected to gradually land, which will support the investment in the construction industry; second, the government work report determined that "energy consumption per unit of GDP will be reduced by about 2.5%", and on April 3, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology have deployed the regulation and control of crude steel output in 2024 (we have discussed in detail in the recent report "Energy Consumption Target, PPI and the Current Round of Supply-side Optimization"); Actively cultivating emerging industries and future industries" pointed out that "strengthen the overall layout and investment guidance of key industries to prevent overcapacity and low-level duplicate construction".

Seventh, the trend of nominal GDP is an important observation clue for the macro in the next stage. As mentioned above, if the nominal GDP rebounds explicitly, it is equivalent to the economic rebound in real growth, and further superimposed the two basic conclusions of the construction industry chain bottoming out and the optimization of supply and demand of new industries. From the perspective of high-frequency data, cement prices and rebar prices can be tracked to verify the impact of existing clues such as generalized fiscal acceleration and crude steel output regulation.

Shen Jianguang (Vice President and Chief Economist of JD.com): How to maintain the current economic recovery momentum?

At the beginning of 2024, China's economy showed signs of recovery. Domestic holiday tourism is active, fiscal and monetary policies are relaxed, and service consumption, exports, and manufacturing investment have all improved. The China Development Forum attracts international business executives, and the visa-free policy promotes Sino-foreign exchanges. However, the real estate downturn, fiscal debt constraints, foreign investment decline and other problems still need to be resolved, and policies need to continue to exert force in foreign trade, real estate, consumption and other fields.

Holiday travel data shows that tourism consumption has rebounded, with the number of tourists and consumption spending during the Qingming holiday exceeding the pre-epidemic level. The box office also hit a new high. Exports grew more than expected, demand picked up in emerging market countries, and exports of labor-intensive and real estate-related products grew significantly. Investment in the manufacturing industry grew, and investment in the high-tech and equipment manufacturing industry led the growth, thanks to financial support and equipment renewal.

However, the real estate market is still facing challenges, with indicators such as development investment, new construction started, and sales area declining. The slow growth of fiscal revenue, the increasing pressure of local debt, the decrease of foreign direct investment, and the restructuring of the global industrial chain affect the investment decisions of multinational companies.

In order to maintain economic recovery, policy recommendations include: deepening opening-up, improving foreign trade and foreign investment expectations, maintaining economic and trade relations with developed countries, expanding institutional opening-up, and creating a high-quality business environment; Through these measures, China's economy is expected to achieve sustained and stable growth.

3. Investment Strategy

Chen Li (Chief Economist of Soochow Securities): Japan's asset prices may accelerate - a one-sided emotional survey in Tokyo recently

Although there are both positive and negative macro data on Japan's economic recovery, the author feels that the overall confidence of society has increased through contact with people from different walks of life. Inflation poses a challenge to economic life, but the rise in assets and wages has alleviated the problem. Japan's employment rate has reached record highs, unemployment has remained low, and collective bargaining has contributed to significant wage growth. Data released by the union showed that the wage increase in 2024 reached an all-time high, outpacing the increase in the CPI.

Using Mitsui & Co. as an example, the authors point out that Japanese companies attract medium- to long-term investors through regular dividend distributions and share buybacks. Mitsui & Co. has succeeded in increasing its price-to-book ratio by maintaining stable operating cash flow and committing to allocate a certain percentage of cash flow to shareholders, while setting an ROE target and a share repurchase policy with excess profits. The new regulations of the Tokyo Stock Exchange require listed companies to disclose their cost of capital and stock price management measures, which promotes constructive dialogue between companies and shareholders and increases corporate value.

The article observes that the price of the Tokyo real estate market may enter a period of rapid growth. Since 2013, the increase in housing prices in Tokyo has gradually increased, especially after 2021. Japan's policymakers keep interest rates low and are the main drivers of house price increases. Although Japan has ended the era of negative interest rates, the central bank's modest policy adjustment and continued quantitative easing indicate that Japan does not intend to abandon the low interest rate environment. Post-90s young people dare to buy houses with the support of low down payments and low loan interest rates, and the government pushes up housing prices through urban construction projects. At the same time, the Japanese stock market performed strongly, driven by multiple investors.

Zhou Hao (Chief Economist of Guotai Junan International), Sun Yingchao (Analyst of Guotai Junan): U.S. stocks are waiting in volatility, while Hong Kong stocks are still in full bloom

U.S. inflation has exploded again, and the market has begun to wait helplessly for the expected interest rate cut. The probability of a rate cut in June has fallen from about 50% two weeks ago to around 10%, and for the most part, a rate cut seems to be a luxury. The minutes of the Fed's meeting, released overnight, showed that the Fed may consider slowing down the process of reducing its balance sheet, which may be the only good news that the market can talk about.

For the market, a rate cut seems increasingly far away, and more importantly, even if it happens in June, it is difficult for the market to expect the next rate cut to happen on track. In other words, rate cuts in the current environment are a dynamic approach, not a traditional rule-based state.

A related question is whether the Fed will cut interest rates in an emergency manner if there is a sharp drop in US stocks, which is not an easy question to answer, but one thing is certain, a sharp decline in the stock market will bring about an increase in interest rate cut expectations, which will alleviate the market's concerns about high interest rates to some extent. In general, U.S. stocks need to wait, correct, or adjust while waiting.

Hong Kong stocks appeared to be very stable amid the volatility of the external market, and the Hang Seng Index retested and stood above the 17,000-point mark. Several key factors for Hong Kong stocks – Treasury yields, US-China relations, and China's economic performance – have all shown signs of stabilizing recently. Investors will of course ask, is it "stable" that US Treasury yields are rising? Our feeling is that it is a relatively common phenomenon for the market to accept and adapt to higher US Treasury interest rates, so the rise in interest rates is not an absolute surprise.

China's economic data has been exceeding expectations recently, and exports are expected to strengthen further with the "non-landing" of the U.S. economy. In any case, these positives have been overlooked before. Another phenomenon worth noting is that the correlation between Hong Kong stocks and US stocks seems to be weakening, and this "seesaw" effect means that related trading strategies may need to be taken seriously.

News hotspots of the week 20240408-0414

Real estate news at a glance

On April 8, the Beijing Housing Provident Fund Management Center solicited public opinions on the "Implementation Measures for Housing Provident Fund to Support the Green Development of Buildings in Beijing". Among them, it is proposed that for the purchase of two-star and above green buildings, prefabricated buildings or ultra-low energy consumption buildings, the maximum loan amount of the housing provident fund can be increased, up to 400,000 yuan, and the maximum loan amount shall not exceed 1.6 million yuan. The reporter combed and found that recently, Xiangtan in Hunan, Qiannan Prefecture in Guizhou, Suzhou in Anhui, Ordos in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and other places have intensively adjusted and optimized the housing provident fund policy. According to incomplete statistics from the China Index Research Institute, as of April 7, about 70 provident fund-related policies have been issued in various places in 2024. Industry insiders believe that the optimization of the provident fund policy is still one of the main means to support the development of the real estate market and promote the release of demand in the past two years, and the optimization and adjustment of the provident fund policy is conducive to reducing the cost of home purchase, reducing the pressure of home buyers, and boosting the sentiment of home buyers.

Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development: Cities that have not issued policies related to affordable housing should accelerate the implementation Up to now, 65 cities across the country have submitted affordable housing construction plans and projects in 2024. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development said that all localities should earnestly promote the implementation of affordable housing construction and achieve results. At present, many cities have formed some good experience and practices in clarifying the standards for the protection objects, setting the construction according to the needs, waiting for the construction of the waiting pool, land security, fund supervision, placement prices, and the working mechanism of construction distribution management. Cities that have not yet issued implementation opinions and supporting policies should fully learn from them, accelerate the introduction of policies, and form an affordable housing policy system as soon as possible. According to the requirements, all localities should do a solid job in the preliminary work of the project, realize the supply of clean land, improve the planning and design scheme, and reach the conditions for starting construction as soon as possible. Where construction has already started, it is necessary to do a good job in organizing and managing the construction, ensure the quality and safety of the project, increase investment, and speed up the progress of construction. In addition, in accordance with the standards of green, low-carbon, intelligent and safe, all localities should do a good job in house design, supporting facilities construction, and public service supply, so as to build affordable housing into "good houses".

On April 8, the Information Office of the Shenyang Municipal Government held a press conference to further optimize the withdrawal of housing provident fund and loan policies: From April 1, 2024 to September 30, 2024, employees can take out loans to purchase self-occupied housing in the administrative area of Shenyang, and the employees themselves and their spouses can apply for the withdrawal of housing provident fund to pay the down payment for the purchase of a house, and the withdrawal time limit is before November 30, 2024. In addition, Shenyang will optimize the "business-to-business" loan policy and service measures, relax the application conditions for "business-to-business" loans, and adjust the "commercial loan has been repaid for more than 5 years (inclusive)" to "the commercial loan has been repaid for more than 3 years (inclusive)" in the application conditions for "business-to-business" loans, and other application conditions will still be implemented according to the original policy.

Guangzhou raises the maximum amount of provident fund loans: the maximum amount of loans applied for by one person is adjusted to 700,000 yuan According to the news on the website of the Guangzhou Housing Provident Fund Management Center on April 8, the Guangzhou Housing Provident Fund Management Center issued a notice on matters related to the adjustment of the maximum amount of personal housing provident fund loans. Among them, it is proposed that if a housing provident fund loan is used to purchase a self-occupied house, the maximum amount of a loan applied for by one person will be adjusted to 700,000 yuan, and the maximum amount of a loan jointly applied for by two or more people to purchase the same self-occupied house will be adjusted to 1.2 million yuan.

Changsha further standardizes the order of stock housing transactions Changsha Municipal Bureau of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, Municipal Bureau of Capital Regulation, Municipal Bureau of Market Supervision and other seven departments recently jointly issued the "Notice on Further Standardizing the Order of Stock Housing Transactions", from improving the management of stock housing transactions, standardizing the stock housing transaction contract (online signing) filing, standardizing the supervision of stock housing transaction funds, standardizing the management of the real estate brokerage industry, and strengthening the stock housing transaction information sharing system. Clear provisions have been made on the investigation and punishment of violations of laws and regulations by real estate brokers, requiring truthful declaration of transaction prices, and not collecting and paying stock housing transaction funds through accounts other than regulatory accounts. It is worth noting that Changsha City has made it clear that the city's stock housing transactions will be unified under the supervision and management of the municipal housing and urban-rural development department, and will be undertaken by the Changsha Housing Transaction Management Center, giving full play to the benign interaction between the new commercial housing market and the stock housing market to meet diversified and reasonable housing needs.

Jiangxi four places cancel the lower limit of the first home loan interest rate The surging news, a few days ago, Nanchang, Ganzhou, Jiujiang and Xinyu in Jiangxi have announced that from April 1, 2024, the lower limit of the local commercial personal housing loan interest rate for the first housing will be cancelled in stages. This policy is conducive to further reducing the cost of housing for residents and supporting the demand for rigid and improved housing. It is reported that after the phased cancellation of the lower limit of the first home loan interest rate, financial institutions can timely and flexibly adjust the local first home loan interest rate according to market changes, and the actual mortgage interest rate is expected to further decline. Combined with a series of supporting policies such as tax incentives and subsidy policies that have been implemented in the relevant districted cities in the province in the early stage, optimizing the loan down payment ratio and provident fund use policy, and "mortgage transfer" for second-hand housing, this move will help reduce the cost of home buyers, better support the demand for rigid and improved housing, and support the growth of residents' investment and consumption.

On April 9, according to the WeChat public account "Zhangjiagang Housing and Construction", Zhangjiagang officially issued the "Relevant Measures to Further Promote the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market in Zhangjiagang City". In terms of the deed tax subsidy for "selling the old and buying the new", after selling their own housing from January 1, 2023 to December 31, 2023, and purchasing a newly built commercial house between December 1, 2023 and March 31, April 1 and June 30, and July 1 and December 31, 2024, they will be given a house purchase subsidy of 100%, 80% and 50% of the new house deed tax payment share. Households that sell their own houses between January 1, 2024 and December 31, 2024 and purchase newly built commercial houses within 3 months, 3-6 months and 6-12 months after the sale will be given a house purchase subsidy of 100%, 80% and 50% of the new house deed tax payment share. This year, Zhangjiagang City will continue to promote the resettlement of "room tickets", try to use the city's room ticket exchange, expand the range of housing options for resettled households, and expand the application scenarios of room tickets, encourage the use of room tickets to purchase various types of houses, and relax the restrictions on the use of room tickets.

Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development: Increase the construction and supply of affordable housing and continue to meet the rigid needs of wage earners The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development held an on-site meeting on the construction of affordable housing in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province on April 9, the meeting pointed out that it is necessary to adapt to the development trend of new urbanization and changes in the supply and demand of real estate, accurately recognize changes, respond scientifically, take the initiative to change, and accelerate the construction of a new model of real estate development, and deeply understand the importance of grasping the construction of affordable housing, increase the construction and supply of affordable housing, and improve the "market + security" The housing supply system continues to meet the rigid housing needs of wage and salary groups.

The transformation of urban villages in many places has been accelerated, and special loans have been accelerated to solve financial problems The transformation of urban villages, one of the "three major projects" (urban village transformation, "level-emergency dual-use" public infrastructure construction, and affordable housing construction), has pressed the "acceleration button". Since 2024, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other places have announced implementation plans for urban village renovation projects throughout the year. For example, the Shenzhen Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau proposed to systematically build a government-led "1+N" policy system for urban village transformation. According to the statistics of the 2024 work plan announced by various districts in Shenzhen, 22 urban village reconstruction projects in Shenzhen have been named and promoted this year. Deng Qiaoqiao, a senior researcher at the E-House Research Institute, told reporters that the incremental impact of this round of urban village transformation on real estate development, sales and infrastructure construction is lower than that of shantytown reform, but it is conducive to the high-quality development of cities and industries and can solve long-term problems.

Fund News at a Glance

The State Council: Strengthen the supervision of securities and fund institutions, promote the industry to return to its origins, and become better and stronger The State Council issued several opinions on strengthening supervision and preventing risks and promoting the high-quality development of the capital market. Among them, it is proposed to strengthen the supervision of securities and fund institutions, and promote the industry to return to its origins and become better and stronger. Promote the high-quality development of securities and fund institutions. Guide industry institutions to establish a correct business philosophy and handle the relationship between functionality and profitability. Strengthen the management of shareholders and business access of industry institutions, and improve the conditions for senior executives and the filing management system. Improve the regulatory system for key businesses such as derivatives and margin trading. Promote industry institutions to strengthen investment banking capabilities and wealth management capacity-building. Support leading institutions to enhance their core competitiveness through mergers and acquisitions, organizational innovation, etc., and encourage small and medium-sized institutions to develop differently and operate with characteristics.

There are obvious signs of recovery in the issuance of public funds At least 82 new funds are scheduled to be issued after the Qingming holiday According to the Securities Daily, data shows that the issuance scale of public funds in March 2024 will exceed 150 billion yuan, and the scale in January and February will be 56.538 billion yuan and 36.097 billion yuan respectively; Since March 2024, a total of 149 funds (A/C shares are combined) in the public fund market have been publicly offered to investors and officially established, of which the number of new bond funds has exceeded 65% of the total number of new funds, with a total issuance scale of 157.1 billion yuan. In February, the number of new funds was only 60, with a fund issuance scale of 36.097 billion yuan, and the number of new funds in January was 95, with a fund issuance scale of 56.538 billion yuan. According to the reporter's statistics, judging from the new funds that have been scheduled to be issued, there are at least 82 new fund products to be issued after April 7.

The public offering results are all released, and the four types of funds reduce losses, and this type of product earns nearly 240 billion According to the Securities Times, according to the data of Tianxiang Investment Advisors, in 2023, the profit performance of bond funds will be eye-catching, with its total profit reaching 238.1 billion yuan, exceeding the total profit of currency funds of 228.1 billion yuan, and achieving significant growth compared with 2022. In 2022, the total profit of bond funds was 83.9 billion yuan, while the total profit of currency funds was 199.5 billion yuan. In addition to bond funds and currency funds, commodity funds and REITs funds also recorded positive profits, with a total profit of 6.1 billion yuan and 1.2 billion yuan respectively. However, QDII funds, FOF funds, equity funds and hybrid funds have seen profit losses, with the profits of the four types of funds in 2023 recording -3.3 billion yuan, -8.1 billion yuan, -324.5 billion yuan and -572.5 billion yuan respectively. Despite this, in the same period of the previous year, the profits of the above-mentioned types of funds recorded -35.1 billion yuan, -16.6 billion yuan, -579.6 billion yuan and -1.1 trillion yuan respectively, compared with the same period of the previous year, the losses of these funds this year have decreased.

World Gold Council: Global gold ETF outflows of $823 million in March According to The Paper, on April 9, the World Gold Council released data showing that in March, global gold ETF funds continued to flow out (a decrease of $823 million), but the outflow rate was much lower than in previous months, as inflows into North America and Asia cushioned losses in Europe. While collective holdings fell further, global gold-backed ETFs saw their total AUM increase by 8% due to the strengthening of the gold price.

According to the China Securities Daily, recently, a number of newly established wholly foreign-owned public offerings have launched their new equity products. According to statistics, since the beginning of this year, the total number of wholly foreign-owned public offering funds such as BlackRock Fund, Neuberger Berman Fund, and Fidelity Fund has exceeded 6. In addition, there is also a wholly foreign-owned public offering that based on the long-term optimism of the Chinese market and the need for business expansion, the company may continue to increase capital in the future. Some foreign investors pointed out that from a long-term perspective, the stability of economic fundamentals, the optimization of the capital market structure and the support of the policy environment have provided a broad space for asset management institutions to expand their business in the Chinese market. At this stage, China's capital market may be in a value depression, providing attractive long-term investment opportunities for forward-thinking investors and asset managers.

Economic news at a glance

China's capital market ushered in the third "National Nine Articles" The State Council recently issued the "Several Opinions on Strengthening Supervision and Preventing Risks and Promoting the High-quality Development of the Capital Market". The opinions issued this time have a total of 9 parts, which is the third "national nine articles" in the capital market. According to reports, the opinions issued by the State Council thoroughly implement the spirit of General Secretary Xi Jinping's important instructions on the capital market, and implement the deployment of the Central Financial Work Conference, which is a guiding document for the capital market issued by the State Council again after the two "National Nine Articles" in 2004 and 2014.

Wu Qing, Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission: Focusing on the three aspects of strict control of listing, strict and continuous supervision, and increasing the supervision of delisting Wu Qing, Secretary of the Party Committee and Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, said in an exclusive interview with Xinhua News Agency on the implementation of the third "National Nine Articles" in the capital market, that in terms of strong supervision, we will build a comprehensive and three-dimensional capital market supervision system, and fully implement the supervision of "long teeth and thorns", with edges and corners. The supervision of listed companies should highlight the supervision of the whole chain and enhance the investment value of listed companies, and continue to make efforts in three aspects: strict listing control, strict and continuous supervision, and increased delisting supervision. Institutional supervision should promote the return to the origin, become better and stronger, further consolidate the responsibility of "gatekeepers", guide institutions in various industries such as securities and futures funds to correct their business philosophy, and improve their compliance level, professional service capabilities and core competitiveness. Actively cultivate rational investment, value investment, long-term investment philosophy and healthy investment culture. Transaction supervision should promote fairness and efficiency, standardize the trading behavior of all types of entities and funds, severely crack down on violations of laws and regulations that disrupt the market, and maintain an open, fair, and just order.

RMB loans increased by 9.46 trillion yuan in the first quarter, and social financing increased by 12.93 trillion yuan On April 12, the People's Bank of China released a report on financial statistics for March 2024. According to the data, RMB loans increased by 9.46 trillion yuan in the first quarter. Specifically, in March, RMB loans increased by 3.09 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 800 billion yuan. According to preliminary statistics, the cumulative increase in the scale of social financing in the first quarter of 2024 will be 12.93 trillion yuan, 1.61 trillion yuan less than the same period of the previous year. In addition, according to the March 2024 statistical data report on the scale and stock of social financing, preliminary statistics show that the stock of social financing scale at the end of March 2024 was 390.32 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%. In addition, the data showed that at the end of March, the balance of broad money (M2) was 304.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 68.58 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%. The balance of money in circulation (M0) was 11.72 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11%. Net cash investment in the first quarter was 376.6 billion yuan.

The scale of imports and exports in the first quarter exceeded 10 trillion yuan for the first time According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, in March, the total value of imports and exports was 3.56 trillion yuan, down 1.3% year-on-year. Among them, exports were 1.99 trillion yuan, down 3.8% year-on-year, and imports were 1.57 trillion yuan, up 2% year-on-year. In the first quarter, the total value of imports and exports was 10.17 trillion yuan, exceeding 10 trillion yuan for the first time in the same period in history, a year-on-year increase of 5%, and the growth rate hit a new high in six quarters; of which exports were 5.74 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.9 percent; imports were 4.43 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5 percent; ASEAN, the European Union, and the United States were the top three trading partners of the mainland, with total import and export values of 1.6 trillion yuan, 1.27 trillion yuan, and 1.07 trillion yuan respectively, up 6.4 percent, down 3.5 percent, and down 0.7 percent year-on-year respectively; The total import and export to the Belt and Road countries was 4.82 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%.

Recently, the People's Bank of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, the State Administration of Financial Supervision and the China Securities Regulatory Commission, issued the "Guiding Opinions on Further Strengthening Financial Support for Green and Low-Carbon Development" to do a good job in green finance and actively support green and low-carbon development. In terms of optimizing the green finance standard system and strengthening information disclosure, the guidance proposes to promote the gradual implementation of carbon accounting in the financial system, and formulate and introduce unified carbon accounting standards for financial institutions and financial businesses. Formulate a unified green finance standard system, and accelerate the research and formulation of transition finance standards. Promote financial institutions and financing entities to carry out environmental information disclosure, and promote cross-departmental, multi-dimensional, and high-value green data docking. In terms of promoting the development of green financial products and markets, the guidance is clear, the construction of the carbon emission trading market will be promoted, and the scope of trading entities suitable for the development of the mainland carbon market will be gradually expanded. Encourage financial institutions to use green finance or transition finance standards to increase credit support for green development and low-carbon transition in energy, industry, transportation, construction and other fields. We will further strengthen the capital market's support for green and low-carbon development, and support eligible enterprises to list and refinance at home and abroad. In addition, the guidance also proposes to promote the improvement of laws and regulations, improve the assessment and evaluation mechanism of financial institutions' green finance, enrich relevant monetary policy tools, and deepen the regional reform of green finance.

The People's Bank of China set up a re-loan for scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation to support scientific and technological innovation, technological transformation and equipment renewal In order to implement the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference and the Central Financial Work Conference, do a good job in the financial "five major articles", and implement the State Council's executive meeting on promoting a new round of large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in decision-making and deployment, the People's Bank of China has set up scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation re-loans, and encouraged and guided financial institutions to increase the number of technology-based small and medium-sized enterprises, Financial support for technological transformation and equipment renewal projects in key areas. The re-lending of scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation is the continuation of the policy of the original re-lending for scientific and technological innovation and special re-lending for equipment renovation, which is reformed and improved on the basis of summarizing the experience of the two tools, supporting financial institutions to improve the quality and efficiency of financial services, and better meeting the financing needs in the fields of scientific and technological innovation, technological transformation and equipment renewal. The reloan amount for scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation is 500 billion yuan, with an interest rate of 1.75% and a term of 1 year, which can be extended twice and each time for a period of 1 year. The recipients include 21 financial institutions, including China Development Bank, policy banks, state-owned commercial banks, Postal Savings Bank of China, and joint-stock commercial banks. Based on the application of the enterprise, the financial institution shall make its own decision on whether to issue loans and the terms under which the loans shall be granted in accordance with the principle of assuming the risks provided by the competent authorities of the enterprise and with reference to the list of alternative enterprises and projects provided by the competent authorities of the industry. Financial institutions apply to the People's Bank of China for re-lending, and the People's Bank of China reviews the loan ledger and issues re-loans to the financial institution at 60% of the loan principal for loans that meet the requirements in the list of alternative enterprises or projects.

The reporter learned from the State Administration of Financial Supervision and Administration that on the morning of April 8, the county supervision branch of the State Administration of Financial Supervision was listed in a unified manner, marking the formal establishment of the "four-level vertical management" structure of the State Administration of Financial Supervision system, the further improvement of the financial supervision organization system, and the important progress made in the reform of the financial management system. According to the State Administration of Financial Supervision, the reform of county-level institutions is an important part of deepening the reform of the financial management system. The establishment of the county-level supervision branch will lay a solid foundation for building a complete and effective modern financial supervision system and promoting the high-quality development of financial supervision.

Li Qiang presided over a symposium of experts and entrepreneurs on the economic situation Li Qiang, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and premier of the State Council, presided over a symposium of experts and entrepreneurs on the economic situation on the afternoon of April 8 to listen to opinions and suggestions on the current economic situation and the next step of economic work. Li Qiang stressed that to consolidate and enhance the positive trend of economic recovery, it is necessary to do a good job in the detailed implementation of the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference and the National People's Congress and the National People's Congress and the National People's Congress and the National People's Congress of It is necessary to continue to consolidate the foundation and cultivate the yuan, stimulate the vitality of the main body of business, and enhance the endogenous driving force for development. It is necessary to strengthen the combination effect and enhance the consistency of macroeconomic policy orientation. It is necessary to pay attention to precise policy implementation and improve the effectiveness of macro policy transmission to micro level. It is necessary to resolutely adhere to the bottom line and resolve risks in key areas. It is necessary to put the work of people's livelihood in a prominent position and do a good job in doing practical things about people's livelihood one by one.

Ministry of Finance: Yellen's Visit to China Reaches Two New Consensus Outcomes On April 8, Chinese Vice Minister of Finance Liao Min briefed the media on U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's visit to China and answered questions from reporters. According to Liao Min, the two sides agreed to jointly implement the important consensus reached by the two heads of state, continue to strengthen communication and cooperation in the economic and financial fields, strive to create a good environment for two-way trade and investment activities of enterprises of the two countries, and promote the healthy and stable development of China-US economic relations. Regarding the consensus results, the two sides reaffirmed the three-point consensus reached at the San Francisco talks in November last year on "strengthening communication", "preventing decoupling" and "addressing common challenges", and reached the following new consensus outcomes: First, the two Ministries of Finance will take the lead in exchanges on the issue of balanced growth between the two countries and the global economy under the framework of the China-US Economic Working Group; second, the People's Bank of China and the US Treasury Department will continue to carry out exchanges on financial stability, sustainable finance, anti-money laundering and other issues under the framework of the Financial Working Group. As for the next steps, in accordance with the instructions of the leaders of the two sides, the working levels of the two sides will continue to promote the implementation of the consensus under the economic and financial working group. The fourth meeting of the two working groups is planned to be held separately in the United States in mid-April.

On April 10, Yu Jianhua, Director General of the General Administration of Customs of the European Union, met with Ana Gallego Torres, Director-General of the Directorate-General for Justice and Consumer Affairs of the European Union, in Hangzhou, and the two sides exchanged views on further implementing the outcomes of the Second EU-China High-level Dialogue on the Digital Sector, deepening cooperation on consumer product safety, and strengthening cooperation in enterprise training. Yu Jianhua said that the EU is one of China's most important trading partners and one of China's most important import and export markets for consumer goods. Over the past 18 years since the establishment of the China-EU Consumer Product Safety Cooperation Mechanism, the two sides have made joint efforts to safeguard the safety of consumer goods, jointly responded to new situations, new problems and new challenges, and achieved a series of practical results. China Customs attaches great importance to cooperation with the Directorate-General for Justice and Consumer Affairs of the European Union, and is willing to work with the European side to implement the new consensus and achievements reached by the two sides, effectively improve the safety level of consumer goods on both sides, protect the rights and interests of consumers, and promote trade facilitation.

Recently, a responsible comrade of the Ministry of Finance was interviewed by reporters on issues related to Fitch International Credit Rating's downgrade of China's sovereign credit rating. As a result, the indicator system of Fitch's sovereign credit rating methodology fails to effectively and forward-looking reflect the positive effect of fiscal policy on promoting economic growth and stabilizing macro leverage. In the long run, maintaining a moderate deficit and making good use of precious debt funds will help expand domestic demand, support economic growth, and ultimately maintain good sovereign credit. The deficit ratio in 2024 will be arranged at 3%, which is moderate and reasonable on the whole, which is conducive to stable economic growth, and can also better control the government debt ratio, so as to reserve policy space for coping with possible risks and challenges in the future.

Li Qiang signed the State Council order to promulgate the "Regulations on Ecological Protection Compensation" Premier Li Qiang of the State Council recently signed an order of the State Council to promulgate the "Regulations on Ecological Protection and Compensation", which will come into force on June 1, 2024. The Regulations consist of 6 chapters and 33 articles. The first is to clarify the connotation of ecological protection compensation. The second is to clarify the working principles and improve the working mechanism. The third is to standardize the vertical financial compensation. The State shall compensate units and individuals that carry out the protection of important ecological and environmental elements and carry out ecological protection in areas with important ecological functions through fiscal transfer payments and other means. Fourth, improve inter-regional horizontal compensation. Encourage, guide and promote the establishment of horizontal compensation mechanisms between ecological beneficiary areas and ecological protection areas through consultation and other means. Fifth, encourage the promotion of market mechanism compensation. Encourage social forces and local governments to carry out ecological protection compensation through the purchase of ecological products and services in accordance with market rules. Sixth, strengthen safeguards, supervision and management.

CPI rose 0.1% year-on-year in March In March 2024, the national consumer price rose by 0.1% year-on-year. Among them, the price of food decreased by 2.7%, the price of non-food products increased by 0.7%, the price of consumer goods decreased by 0.4%, and the price of services increased by 0.8%. From January to March, on average, consumer prices across the country were unchanged from the same period last year. In March, the national consumer price fell by 1.0% month-on-month. Among them, the prices of urban goods decreased by 1.0 percent, the prices of rural areas decreased by 0.7 percent, the prices of food decreased by 3.2 percent, the prices of non-food goods decreased by 0.5 percent, the prices of consumer goods decreased by 0.9 percent, and the prices of services decreased by 1.1 percent.

PPI fell 2.8% year-on-year in March In March 2024, the ex-factory prices of industrial producers fell by 2.8% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month, while the purchasing prices of industrial producers fell by 3.5% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month. In the first quarter, the ex-factory prices of industrial producers decreased by 2.7 percent over the same period of the previous year, and the purchase prices of industrial producers decreased by 3.4 percent.

According to the WeChat official account of the National Development and Reform Commission on April 8, the National Development and Reform Commission and other six departments announced the revised "Measures for the Administration of Infrastructure and Public Utilities Concessions" (hereinafter referred to as the "Measures"), which will come into force on May 1, 2024. The person in charge of the Department of Laws and Regulations of the National Development and Reform Commission said that the "Administrative Measures" reflect the spirit of reform of the new PPP mechanism in the system design, including encouraging private enterprises to participate. The maximum term of the franchise will be extended to 40 years, and private enterprises will be encouraged to participate in the franchise project through direct investment, sole proprietorship, holding, participation in the consortium and other ways, and shall comply with the provisions of the "Guiding Opinions" on the support list on the project field and share ratio of private enterprises, and make it clear that the benefits obtained by the franchisee to improve the operation and management and improve the technology belong to it.

State Administration of Financial Regulation: Encourage banks to provide comprehensive financial services such as settlement, financial consulting, and exchange rate hedging for small and micro enterprises The State Council Information Office held a regular briefing on the policies of the State Council at 3 p.m. on April 10 to introduce the implementation plan for the construction of a coordinated financing credit service platform to improve the financing convenience level of small and medium-sized enterprises. To ensure the amount is to maintain the support of inclusive credit without decreasing, and strive to achieve that the growth rate of inclusive small and micro enterprise loans is not lower than the growth rate of various loans. Price stabilization is to stabilize credit prices and guide banks to reasonably determine the interest rate of inclusive small and micro enterprise loans. Banks are required to strictly regulate cooperation with third-party institutions to promote a steady and moderate reduction in the cost of comprehensive social financing. The optimal structure is to optimize the credit structure, increase the first loan and renewal loan, and increase the loan of small and micro enterprises. At the same time, we will implement the requirements of the CPC Central Committee on the development of new quality productive forces, highlight the support for scientific and technological innovation, specialization, special innovation, and green and low-carbon development, and increase medium and long-term loan support for small and micro enterprises in terms of equipment renewal, technological transformation, and project research and development. In addition to credit support, we also encourage banks to build a "credit+" service model to provide small and micro enterprises with comprehensive financial services such as settlement, financial consulting, and exchange rate hedging, so as to better meet the diversified financial needs of small and micro enterprises.

Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: will focus on petrochemical chemicals, steel and other key industries, and comprehensively promote equipment renewal and technological transformation On the afternoon of April 11, the Information Office of the State Council held a regular briefing on the policies of the State Council, and Shan Zhongde, vice minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said at the press conference that the next step will be to focus on key industries such as petrochemical industry, steel, nonferrous metals, building materials, machinery, automobiles, light industry, textiles, electronics, etc., and carry out advanced equipment updates, digital transformation, and green equipment promotion. Four major actions to improve the safety level, and comprehensively promote equipment renewal and technological transformation. Implement advanced equipment renewal actions. For industrial machine tools, agricultural machinery, construction machinery and other industries, speed up the replacement of backward and inefficient equipment such as old machine tools that have been in service for more than 10 years; for aviation, photovoltaic, power battery and other industries, benchmark against the international advanced level, update a number of high-tech, high-efficiency, high-reliability advanced equipment; around the weak links such as R&D and design, pilot test verification, inspection and testing, update and upgrade a number of test and testing equipment. Implement digital transformation initiatives. Focusing on promoting the digitalization, networking, and intelligence of the manufacturing industry, we will promote the application of intelligent manufacturing equipment such as industrial robots and intelligent logistics, build a number of smart factories, strengthen the construction of digital infrastructure, and accelerate the large-scale deployment of industrial Internet, gigabit optical networks, and computing power centers.

National Development and Reform Commission: The consumer goods trade-in document led by the Ministry of Commerce has been printed and may be officially introduced in the next few days On the afternoon of April 11, the Information Office of the State Council held a regular briefing on the policies of the State Council, Zhao Chenxin, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at the press conference that at present, the State Administration of Market Supervision led the development of the standard improvement action plan has been introduced, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology led the development of the industrial field equipment update documents have also been officially launched, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development led the construction and municipal field equipment renewal implementation plan has also been issued and implemented, the Ministry of Commerce led the consumer goods trade-in documents have been printed, may be officially introduced in the next few days. In addition to these, there are energy conservation and carbon reduction action plans for key industries, as well as implementation plans in the fields of transportation, education, cultural tourism, medical care, etc., the leading units are the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Transport, the Ministry of Education, the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, and the Health Commission.

Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: will support mainland new energy vehicle enterprises to accelerate overseas development according to local conditions The relevant person in charge of China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said in an exclusive interview with China Daily, "In the next step, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will strengthen high-level open cooperation in the field of new energy vehicles, so that scientific and technological innovation achievements can better benefit people around the world." The first is to promote the coordination of standards and regulations. Accelerate the docking of standards and regulations in the field of new energy vehicles at home and abroad, strengthen low-carbon development cooperation with relevant countries and regions, promote the formation of mutually recognized carbon emission and carbon footprint accounting rules, and create a good environment for global technology application and product promotion. The second is to improve the service support system. Strengthen policy guidance and support enterprises to accelerate overseas development according to local conditions. Give full play to the role of the international development and innovation alliance of Chinese automobile enterprises, improve the support system of policy consultation, product certification, compliance training, etc., and improve the ability of international operation. Improve the international logistics system and strengthen the guarantee of transportation services such as railways and shipping. The third is to optimize the environment for trade development. Adhere to international innovation and global development, safeguard the multilateral trading system, give full play to the role of multilateral and bilateral mechanisms, and promote the establishment of fair, reasonable and transparent international trade rules. ”

On April 8, the Ministry of Finance, the General Administration of Customs, and the State Administration of Taxation issued the Notice on the List of Non-Duty-free Import and Export Commodities for Border People's Mutual Market Trade (hereinafter referred to as the Notice) to optimize the policy environment for the diversified development of border people's mutual trade. In terms of imported goods, the circular clarifies that except for the commodities listed in the Negative List of Imported Commodities for Border Residents' Mutual Market Trade, border residents can import them through mutual market trade. A total of 21 commodities are not exempt from duty-free for imported goods in border people's mutual trade, including tobacco, alcohol, etc., as well as agricultural products such as wheat that exceed the prescribed amount. The import duty-free quota is calculated and used on an individual basis. In terms of export commodities, the list of non-duty-free export commodities for border people's mutual trade includes commodities prohibited by the state, commodities subject to export tariffs, and commodities for which export tax rebates have been cancelled. The relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Finance said that in the future, it will work with relevant departments to dynamically adjust the list of non-duty-free import and export commodities in the border people's mutual market trade in a timely manner according to the actual situation of the development of border people's mutual market trade.

In order to implement the decisions and deployments of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, and implement the requirements of the "Opinions on Further Optimizing Payment Services and Improving Payment Convenience" issued by the General Office of the State Council, the People's Bank of China, the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange and the State Administration of Cultural Heritage jointly issued the Notice on Further Optimizing Payment Services for Key Cultural Tourism Venues and Improving Payment Convenience. The notice makes it clear that three-star and above tourist hotels, national 5A and 4A tourist attractions, national and provincial tourist resorts, and national tourism and leisure blocks should achieve full coverage of domestic and foreign bank card acceptance. Relevant business entities of key cultural and tourism venues should retain manual ticketing windows, support cash payment, and protect consumers' right to choose payment. Actively promote the establishment of foreign currency exchange business outlets in cultural and tourism venues with a large number of foreign visitors to China, and improve the level of foreign currency exchange services. We will continue to improve mobile payment services, optimize business processes, enrich product functions, and improve the convenience of mobile payment in online and offline scenarios of cultural and tourism venues. Based on better meeting the diversified payment service needs of the elderly, foreign visitors to China and other groups in the field of cultural tourism, the notice requires local cultural and tourism departments and cultural relics departments to strengthen coordination and linkage with local branches of the People's Bank of China, identify key cultural and tourism venues, clarify key merchants, formulate work plans, and continue to improve the domestic and foreign bank card acceptance environment and cash use environment, improve the convenience of mobile payment, Strengthen publicity and promotion, refine work measures, do a good job in supply and demand docking, evaluation and supervision, and jointly improve the level of payment facilitation in the field of culture and tourism.

Ministry of Justice: Business operators shall not implement "price discrimination" and "big data killing" The Information Office of the State Council held a regular briefing on the policies of the State Council to introduce the relevant situation of the "Regulations on the Implementation of the Law of the People's Republic of China on the Protection of Consumer Rights and Interests". Guo Qiwen, head of the Second Legislative Bureau of the Ministry of Justice, said at the meeting that in the legislative process, the Ministry of Justice and the State Administration for Market Regulation worked closely to focus on the current pain points and difficult problems that consumers are concerned about, and improve the relevant provisions within the basic framework of the Consumer Rights Protection Law. The relevant provisions of the Law on the Protection of Consumer Rights and Interests have been refined and supplemented, and the obligations of business operators to protect the personal and property safety of consumers, the handling of defective products, the clear marking of prices, and the use of standard terms, as well as the obligations of the protection of the rights and interests of consumers of the elderly and minors, have been further refined and supplemented. Improve provisions on online consumption, stipulating that business operators must not compel consumers to purchase goods or receive services, and must not carry out "price discrimination" or "big data killing". Livestream marketing platform operators shall perform their obligations to protect consumer rights and interests in accordance with law. Regulate prepaid consumption business activities, and clarify the relevant rules for operators to collect and refund advance payments.

The State Administration of Financial Supervision solicits public opinions on the "Measures for Anti-Insurance Fraud (Draft for Comments)" "In recent years, the number of insurance fraud cases involving gangs, professions, and cross-regions and institutions has gradually increased. Some of the contents of the current Anti-Insurance Fraud Guidelines are no longer suitable for the current anti-fraud work. The head of the relevant department of the State Administration of Financial Supervision and Administration said on April 11. To this end, the State Administration of Financial Supervision has drafted the Measures for Anti-Insurance Fraud (Draft for Comments) to solicit public opinions. The above-mentioned person in charge said that the "Measures" emphasize top-level design, strengthen overall planning, highlight the protection of consumer rights and interests in anti-fraud work, strengthen technology empowerment and big data application, and promote a new model of big data anti-fraud work.

According to the website of the Ministry of Commerce, on April 8, Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao held talks with Liszt, the minister of foreign trade of the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs, in Paris, France. The two sides had an in-depth exchange of views on issues related to China-France economic and trade relations. Wang Wentao said that this year marks the 60th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and France, and under the strategic guidance of the diplomacy of the two heads of state, the scale and quality of bilateral economic and trade cooperation have been continuously improved. At present, China is promoting high-quality development, accelerating the development of new quality productivity, and actively creating a level playing field for domestic and foreign enterprises, which will provide greater market opportunities for European companies, including France. China is ready to work with France to give full play to the role of existing economic and trade mechanisms, manage differences through dialogue and cooperation, and promote the resolution of each other's major and legitimate concerns.

On April 9, the China Association of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises released data showing that the SME development index in the first quarter was 89.3, up 0.2 points from the previous quarter, higher than the level of the same period in 2022 and the same as the same period in 2023, but still below the critical value of 100. The sub-industry index rose 3, 1 flat and 4 fell. In the first quarter, the indices of industry, real estate, and information transmission, computer services, and software increased by 0.4, 0.1, and 0.3 points respectively over the previous quarter, while the index of wholesale and retail trade remained flat, and the indices of construction, transportation, postal and warehousing, social services, and accommodation and catering decreased by 0.2, 0.1, 0.3, and 0.2 points respectively from the previous quarter, and the index of social services fell by a large margin. The eight sub-industry indices are all below the critical value of 100. Sub-indices rose across the board. In the first quarter, the macroeconomic sentiment index, comprehensive business index, market index, cost index, capital index, labor index, input index and efficiency index all stopped falling and rebounded, rising by 0.2, 0.2, 0.3, 0.1, 0.3, 0.1, 0.2 and 0.1 points respectively from the previous quarter.

The issuance scale increased by more than 100%, and the asset management trust market rebounded in March According to the Economic Information Daily, in March, the market for the issuance and establishment of asset management trust products rose significantly month-on-month. According to the latest data from the Yongyi Financial Trust Research Institute, a total of 2,452 asset management trust products were issued in March, an increase of 66.35% month-on-month, and the issuance scale was 131.858 billion yuan, an increase of 106.88% month-on-month. The number and scale of non-standard and standard trust products have both rebounded, and the scale of stock investment products has increased more significantly. Experts said that the establishment base of the issuance in February was at a relatively low level, which was the main reason for the significant increase in the issuance and establishment of the asset management trust market in March.

Chongqing: Rectifying Outstanding Problems such as Illegal Collection, Use, and Leakage of Personal Information by Financial Service Apps Recently, the Chongqing Supervision Bureau of the State Administration of Financial Regulation, the Chongqing Local Financial Administration, and the Chongqing Municipal Communications Administration jointly issued the "Notice on Promoting the Improvement of the Compliance Operation Capacity of Personal Information Protection of Financial Service Apps". The "Notice" is divided into four major types of financial service apps: online lending, investment and wealth management, mobile banking, and online payment, which are classified in the "Provisions on the Scope of Necessary Personal Information for Common Types of Mobile Internet Applications", covering part-time financial management, securities trading, credit cards, insurance, business inquiries, consumer finance, financial information, commodity investment, foreign exchange inquiries, investment and wealth management, In terms of lottery services, we will sort out specific references and practical guidelines from the nine aspects of personal information protection of financial service apps, and clarify the specifications and processes for institutions in the collection, storage, use, and processing of personal financial information. The Notice also clarifies that the three departments shall establish a joint supervision mechanism, carry out special inspections in a timely manner, and carry out coordinated governance and joint supervision of the illegal collection and use of personal information by financial service apps ex officio, so as to form a joint regulatory force and rectify outstanding problems such as the illegal collection, use, and leakage of personal information by financial service apps.

Wang Hui of the Ministry of Civil Affairs: The pension industry will be a new economic growth point On April 8, Wang Hui, the second-level inspector of the Department of Pension Services of the Ministry of Civil Affairs, said at the "Sixth Longevity Era Summit Forum" in the 2024 World Health Expo that the mainland's pension industry is promising, and the development of the silver economy is not only a practical need to realize the yearning for a better life for the elderly, but also a new driving force for high-quality economic and social development. The pension industry has broad prospects in the future and will be a new economic growth point, which can stimulate investment and promote employment. With the increase of the elderly population, the willingness of the elderly to consume and the consumption ability of the elderly will gradually increase, and the pension industry will become bigger and bigger. Wang Hui said that there is a core principle in the process of developing the pension industry, that is, to correctly handle the relationship between the government and the market. The government should let the market play a decisive role in the allocation of resources for pension services, and the government should be committed to building a healthy and efficient pension service format, so that the micro subjects of pension services are more dynamic, the market mechanism is more effective, and the macro control is more moderate.

Small and medium-sized banks cut deposit interest rates Experts expect that deposit interest rate adjustments will be ushered in again this year According to the China Securities Daily, since April, a number of small and medium-sized banks in Henan, Guangdong, Yunnan, Guizhou, Shanxi and other places have lowered interest rates for short-term, medium- and long-term time deposits. Experts said that the interest rate adjustment of small and medium-sized banks is still a follow-up to the interest rate cut of commercial bank deposits at the end of 2023. Experts said that the trend of fixed-term deposits is becoming more and more obvious, which brings higher debt costs to commercial banks. In addition, the net interest margin of the banking industry is still under downward pressure against the backdrop of promoting the steady and moderate decline of social comprehensive financing costs. Considering the timing of deposit rate reductions, the pressure on bank interest margins, and the regularization of deposits, it is expected that the market will usher in another adjustment of deposit interest rates this year.

Zhejiang: Strive to account for 18% of inclusive small and micro enterprise credit loans by the end of 2027 The Zhejiang Supervision Bureau of the State Administration of Financial Supervision disclosed that the Ningbo Supervision Bureau, the Provincial Party Committee Financial Office, the Zhejiang Branch of the People's Bank of China, the Zhejiang Securities Regulatory Bureau, and the Ningbo Securities Regulatory Bureau issued the "Work Plan on Promoting the High-quality Development of Inclusive Finance". Promote the construction of a modern inclusive financial system with Zhejiang characteristics, and help build a high-level common prosperity demonstration zone. The overall requirements require adhering to the people-centered development philosophy, focusing on the financial needs of inclusive customers such as small and micro enterprises, "three rural", new citizens, and the elderly, optimizing the capital supply structure, broadening financing channels, improving insurance protection, and creating a leading model for the high-quality development of inclusive finance in Zhejiang. By the end of 2027, the loan coverage rate of active business entities will reach 50%, the proportion of inclusive credit loans for small and micro enterprises will reach 18%, and the penetration rate of export credit insurance will not be less than 30%. The specific measures put forward 21 pragmatic and effective measures from six aspects: deepening the supply-side reform of inclusive finance, strengthening financial support for key areas and weak links, promoting the deep integration of inclusive and technology, green, digital and pension finance, improving the inclusive insurance security system, improving the risk prevention and control capabilities of inclusive finance, and improving the infrastructure of inclusive finance.

Shanghai Single-Purpose Prepaid Consumption Card Management Implementation Measures Solicitation According to the Securities Times, the "Shanghai Single-Purpose Prepaid Consumption Card Management Implementation Measures" will expire on April 30, 2024, and has been included in the city's annual revision plan for administrative normative documents. On the basis of full investigation and listening to the opinions of all parties, the Shanghai Municipal Commission of Commerce has drafted the "Implementation Measures for the Administration of Single-Purpose Prepaid Consumption Cards in Shanghai (Draft for Comments)", which is now open to the public for comments, and the deadline is April 15. Where the balance of funds received in advance by business operators exceeds 200,000 yuan, it shall be included in the general risk warning, and business operators shall adopt a special deposit account for management of 40% of the balance of all funds received in advance. If the balance of funds received in advance exceeds 50 million yuan or 20% of the main business income of the previous year, it shall be included in the special risk warning, and the operator shall adopt a special deposit account for the management of all the balance of funds received in advance.

Hangzhou: It is planned to build a Hangzhou Intelligent Robot Industry Innovation Center and actively strive for a national innovation platform The Hangzhou Municipal Bureau of Economy and Information Technology openly solicits opinions from the public on the "Implementation Opinions on Promoting the High-quality Development of the Intelligent Robot Industry in Hangzhou" (draft for comments). Among them, it is proposed to build a service platform. The construction of Hangzhou intelligent robot industry innovation center, give full play to the functions of innovation leadership, testing and verification, standard formulation, simulation training, exchange and display, scientific research transformation, industrial incubation, etc., and strive to build a provincial innovation center in three years, actively strive for a national innovation platform, and create a landmark in Hangzhou with new quality productivity. Combined with the construction of the West Science and Technology Innovation Corridor and the East Intelligent Manufacturing Corridor, we will build 2-3 intelligent robot industry platforms, and strive to become a policy depression and industrial highland for artificial intelligence. Encourage scientific research institutes and leading enterprises in Hangzhou to form innovation consortiums, and build or introduce a number of open and shared scientific and technological innovation platforms.

Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: The industrial added value of textile enterprises above designated size increased by 7.7% year-on-year from January to February The website of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced on April 8 the operation of the textile industry from January to February 2024: the industrial added value of textile enterprises above designated size increased by 7.7% year-on-year, the operating income was 675 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.7%, and the total profit was 18.2 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase. The output of clothing and cloth of enterprises above designated size decreased by 0.3% and 0.2% year-on-year respectively, while the output of yarn and chemical fiber increased by 0.7% and 27.7% year-on-year. The total retail sales of consumer goods of units above designated size nationwide reached 2,992 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7 percent. From January to February, the mainland's textile and garment exports totaled US$45.1 billion, up 14.3 percent year-on-year, up 32.8 percentage points over the same period last year, of which textile exports were US$21.7 billion, up 15.5 percent year-on-year, and clothing exports were US$23.4 billion, up 13.1 percent year-on-year.

Passenger Car Association: Passenger car exports in March reached 406,000 units, the highest monthly export volume in history On April 9, the China Passenger Car Association announced that overall automobile exports this year continued to grow strongly at the end of last year. Passenger car exports (including finished vehicles and CKDs) in March totaled 406,000 units, reflecting a 39% y/y increase and a 36% m/m increase, and a total of 1,063,000 units from January to March, reflecting a 36% y/y increase. New energy vehicles accounted for 29.3% of total exports in March, up 5.4 percentage points from the same period last year. In March, exports of domestic brands increased by 33% y/y and 37% m/m to 341,000 units, while exports of joint ventures and luxury brands increased by 110% y/y to 65,000 units.

Guangzhou: Encourage local securities companies, asset management, banks, independent investment advisers and other key financial institutions to develop investment advisory business The Office of the Financial Commission of the Guangzhou Municipal Committee of the Communist Party of China issued the "Several Measures for Vigorously Developing the Investment Advisory Business in Guangzhou". It proposes to encourage local securities companies, asset management, banks, independent investment advisers and other key financial institutions to develop investment advisory business, support local financial institutions to apply for investment advisory licenses approved by national regulatory authorities, and set up independent investment advisory management teams to carry out investment advisory related business work. Support financial institutions to use financial technology to provide investment advisory services to investors. Promote government guidance funds, social capital, listed companies and other types of capital and investment institutions in the field of investment consulting such as Guangzhou Investment Advisory Industry Chain Investment Company to strengthen cooperation, invest in and cultivate high-quality companies in the upstream and downstream of the investment consulting industry chain, and promote their settlement and agglomeration in Guangzhou, and jointly participate in the construction of Guangzhou's investment consulting industry.

Focusing on key tasks and strengthening high-level coordination and linkage, the expanded meeting of the Shanghai Leading Group for Promoting the Integrated Development of the Yangtze River Delta was held The Shanghai Leading Group for Promoting the Integrated Development of the Yangtze River Delta held an expanded meeting on April 9. The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to strengthen the cross-regional coordination of scientific and technological innovation and industrial innovation, focus on basic research, joint technology research and other innovative systems and mechanisms, and build high-end industrial clusters around the three leading industries, new energy vehicles and other fields to enhance overall competitiveness. Accelerate the transformation and development of digitalization, intelligence and greening, give full play to the enabling role of producer services and professional services, promote the cross-regional extension of platforms such as the digitalization of aviation and trade, and strive to build a new energy system with the green and low-carbon supply chain system as the traction, so as to improve the economy, stability and sustainability of green energy production and supply.

The total output value of Shenzhen's robot industry reached 179.7 billion yuan last year On April 9, the Shenzhen Robot Association released the "2023 Shenzhen Robot Industry Development White Paper". According to the data, the total output value of Shenzhen's robot industry chain in 2023 will be 179.7 billion yuan, compared with 164.4 billion yuan in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, compared with 3.9% in 2022, a significant rebound has been achieved, and the growth rate is much higher than the 3.3% growth rate of the added value of Shenzhen's high-tech manufacturing industry, which is close to the growth rate of the added value of Shenzhen's strategic emerging industries (8.8%).

U.S. March CPI rose more than expected year-on-year Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on the 10th showed that the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rose by 3.5% year-on-year in March this year, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from February, exceeding market expectations. According to the data, the US CPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month in March this year, the same increase as in February. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month and 3.8% year-on-year, both unchanged from February. Specifically, energy prices rose 1.1% month-on-month in March, following a sharp increase in February, with gasoline prices rising 1.7% month-on-month. The cost of living, which accounts for about one-third of the CPI, rose 0.4% month-on-month, unchanged from February. Food prices rose 0.1% month-on-month.

New York Fed: U.S. one-year inflation expectations remain stable, fears of inability to repay debt intensify Zhitong Financial News, the New York Fed released a report on Monday saying that Americans' expectations for the inflation outlook last month were mixed, and they expected greater price increases in a range of key goods and services, while worries about not being able to repay debt intensified. In its March consumer expectations survey, the bank found that the public expects inflation to be 3% in a year's time, unchanged from the previous month. Inflation is expected to rise to 2.9% three years from now, up from 2.7% in February, and 2.6% five years from now, down from 2.9% forecast last month.

Japan has achieved a current account surplus for 13 consecutive months According to the preliminary statistical report on the balance of payments released by the Ministry of Finance of Japan on the 8th, due to the narrowing of the trade deficit and the increase in the travel surplus, Japan's current account surplus in February was 2.64 trillion yen (1 US dollar is about 151.78 yen), achieving a surplus for 13 consecutive months. According to the data, Japan's trade deficit in goods was 280.9 billion yen in February, a significant decrease from the same period last year. Among them, exports increased by 5.5% year-on-year to 8.10 trillion yen, driven by increased exports of automobiles, auto parts and plastics, and increased by 1.4% to 8.38 trillion yen, driven by increased imports of clothing, computer equipment and petroleum products. In terms of trade in services, the number of foreign tourists visiting Japan increased sharply year-on-year, narrowing the deficit in services trade to 55.6 billion yen. In addition, the increase in income from overseas securities investment resulted in a surplus of 3.31 trillion yen in overseas investment income, including interest and dividends.

The European Central Bank kept the three major interest rates unchanged for the fifth time in a row The European Central Bank held a monetary policy meeting on the 11th and decided to keep the three key interest rates unchanged. This is the fifth consecutive time that the ECB has kept interest rates unchanged since October last year. The European Central Bank announced on the same day that the main refinancing rate, marginal lending rate and deposit facility interest rate will remain unchanged at 4.50%, 4.75% and 4.00% respectively.

U.S. PPI rose 2.1% year-on-year in March, the highest since April 2023 The U.S. PPI rose 2.1% year-on-year in March, the highest since April 2023, with an estimated increase of 2.2% and a 1.6% increase in the previous month, while the U.S. PPI rose 0.2% month-on-month in March, with an estimated increase of 0.3% and a previous increase of 0.6%. The US PPI, which excludes food, energy and trade, rose 2.8% year-on-year in March.

ADB expects strong growth in Asia-Pacific The Asian Development Bank (ADB) said in its Asian Development Outlook 2024 report on April 11 that the Asia-Pacific economy will continue to grow strongly, with developing economies in Asia and the Pacific expected to grow by 4.9 percent this year. According to the report, despite the uncertainty of the external environment, factors such as the end of the interest rate hike cycle of the world's major economies and the continued recovery of commodity trade will support the economic growth of the Asia-Pacific region, and the overall outlook for the region is positive, with regions such as South Asia, Southeast Asia and East Asia leading economic growth. The report also forecasts that inflation in developing Asia-Pacific economies will fall to 3.2 percent in 2024 and 3.0 percent in 2025, but in South Asia, Central Asia and the Caucasus, inflation will reach 7.0 percent and 7.9 percent, respectively, this year.

List of stocks and bonds news

The China Securities Regulatory Commission solicited opinions: it has made targeted improvements in strictly regulating the reduction of major shareholders' holdings and effectively preventing detours and reducing shareholdings The China Securities Regulatory Commission has solicited opinions from the public on six institutional rules including the "Guidelines for the Evaluation of Scientific and Technological Innovation Attributes (Trial)". In terms of the supervision of listed companies, it includes 1 rule formulation and 1 rule amendment. The first is to formulate the "Administrative Measures for the Reduction of Shareholdings by Shareholders of Listed Companies". The original "Several Provisions on the Reduction of Shareholdings by Shareholders, Directors, Supervisors and Senior Executives of Listed Companies" was upgraded to the "Administrative Measures for the Reduction of Shareholdings by Shareholders of Listed Companies", which was promulgated in the form of regulations of the China Securities Regulatory Commission. In terms of content, the basic framework of the original shareholding reduction regulations remains unchanged, and at the same time, in combination with the key concerns of all parties, targeted improvements have been made in strictly regulating the shareholding reduction of major shareholders, effectively preventing detour shareholding reduction, refining the liability clauses for violations, and strengthening the obligations of key entities. The second is to revise the "Rules for the Management of the Company's Shares Held by Directors, Supervisors and Senior Managers of Listed Companies and Their Changes". Absorb and integrate the requirements of the original shareholding reduction regulations to regulate the shareholding reduction of directors, supervisors and senior executives, and further clearly stipulate that all parties shall jointly abide by the original shareholding reduction restrictions after the divorce and division of shares.

According to the Securities Times, in order to implement the "Several Opinions of the State Council on Strengthening Supervision and Preventing Risks and Promoting the High-quality Development of the Capital Market", on April 12, the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges solicited opinions from the public on specific business rules such as the "Review Rules for Stock Issuance and Listing" and "Stock Issuance and Listing Rules", involving improving listing conditions, standardizing shareholding reduction, and strict delisting standards. The main points are as follows: 1. Further improve the quality of IPO declaration, prevent and control "sick declaration", and add the circumstances of "withdrawal after inspection" and "withdrawal after supervision" on the basis of the original provisions of 2 times of inadmissibility within 1 year, and set a 6-month declaration interval. 2. Improve the listing conditions on the main board, and moderately increase the indicators of net profit, net cash flow, operating income and market value. 3. Strictly manage the reduction of shareholdings by major shareholders, and clarify the requirements for the combined calculation of the shares held in each securities account and the number of shares that have not been repurchased for refinancing or repurchase. 4. Intensify the supervision of restructuring and listing, reduce the value of "shell resources", improve the conditions for reorganization and listing on the main board, and improve the rapid review mechanism for small amounts of restructuring. 5. Adopt strong restraint measures for non-compliance with dividends, focusing on the inclusion of companies that have not paid dividends for many years or have a low dividend ratio into the situation of "implementing other risk warnings" (ST). 6. Broaden the scope of application of mandatory delisting for major violations, add three new regulatory delisting situations, and tighten financial delisting indicators.

On the 12th, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) solicited opinions from the public on the "Administrative Provisions on Programmatic Trading in the Securities Market (Trial) (Draft for Comments)" (hereinafter referred to as the "Administrative Regulations"). Zhang Wangjun, director of the First Department of Market Supervision of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, said at a press conference held on the same day that the "Management Regulations" put forward stricter and differentiated regulatory requirements for high-frequency trading. One is an additional reporting mechanism. In the process of high-frequency trading, system security and stability are of paramount importance. In the event of a malfunction, it may affect the normal trading operation of the market. Therefore, in addition to the general reporting requirements, the Administrative Regulations also require additional information such as the location of the high-frequency trading reporting system server, the system test report, and the system failure contingency plan. The second is differentiated fees. Many overseas exchanges charge higher fees for high-frequency trading, with the aim of using market-oriented adjustment methods to guide high-frequency trading to actively control the frequency of trading and standardize trading behavior. In the Administrative Regulations, the CSRC authorizes stock exchanges to increase the fees for high-frequency trading and consider charging other fees such as order cancellation fees. In this regard, the stock exchange will also make separate provisions. Third, the supervision of transactions is appropriate and strict. According to the "Administrative Regulations", the stock exchange will focus on the supervision of high-frequency trading, and if abnormal trading behaviors are found, it can take strict management measures in accordance with the regulations. This is conducive to urging high-frequency trading investors to strengthen internal management and risk control, and participate in transactions in accordance with laws and regulations.

China Securities Regulatory Commission: The proportion of IPO enterprise inspection this year is not less than 25% According to the 2024 departmental budget recently announced by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the total budget of revenue and expenditure this year is 2.807 billion yuan, an increase of 24.9% from the total budget of 2.247 billion yuan in 2023, and at the same time, it is clear that the proportion of inspection of initial enterprises is not less than 25%. According to the department's budget disclosure, in 2024, the China Securities Regulatory Commission will strengthen the inspection of listed companies, bond issuers, companies listed on the New Third Board, IPO companies, etc., and organize inspections of securities companies, fund companies, futures companies, private equity institutions, as well as legal, auditing, and evaluation institutions. In terms of quantitative indicators, the CSRC has made it clear that the proportion of inspections of IPO companies will not be less than 25%, while in 2023, the proportion of inspections of IPO companies organized by the CSRC will only be no less than 5%. At the same time, the "Performance Target Table for Supervision and Monitoring Review Expenditure Projects" also requires the number of confirmation documents such as inspection result notices to be issued at least 2,115, an increase of 248 year-on-year, and the number of briefing indicators such as inspections, daily supervision work summaries, and special action progress is no less than 1,954, an increase of 16.5% year-on-year. At the same time, the law enforcement and case-handling objectives are clear: in 2024, it will crack down on the "key minority" such as the actual controllers, directors, supervisors and senior executives of listed companies to carry out illegal information disclosure such as financial fraud and capital occupation in an organized and premeditated manner; Pay attention to giving full play to the joint force of law enforcement, optimize the coordination mechanism for executions, strengthen cross-border supervision and law enforcement cooperation, and actively build a law enforcement pattern with close connection between the front and back ends and internal and external cooperation. Innovate law enforcement publicity models and respond to market concerns in a timely manner. In terms of quality indicators, the proportion of inspections on key supervision objects and high-risk areas is not less than 67%, and last year the index was not less than 62.6%. In terms of timeliness, the average number of days for filing cases is less than or equal to 115 days, an increase of 15 days compared with last year.

According to the China Securities Daily, the Securities Association of China intends to revise some provisions of the "Implementation Measures for Self-Discipline Measures of the Securities Association of China" to add a situation of heavier self-discipline measures, that is, "interfering with securities-related work by bribery". Generally speaking, the CSA has taken six heavy self-discipline measures: refusing to cooperate with the investigation, falsifying, concealing, destroying, or transferring evidentiary materials, retaliating against complainants and informants, refusing to make corrections, perfunctory rectifications, or making false rectifications, two or more violations of the same kind occurred within 12 months, interfering with securities-related work by bribery, and other aggravating circumstances.

China's foreign exchange reserves were US$3,245.7 billion at the end of March According to statistics from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, as of the end of March 2024, the size of the mainland's foreign exchange reserves was US$3,245.7 billion, an increase of US$19.8 billion, or 0.62%, from the end of February. In March 2024, affected by the monetary policies and expectations of major economies, macroeconomic data and other factors, the US dollar index rose, and global financial asset prices rose overall. Factors such as exchange rate translation and changes in asset prices combined to increase the scale of foreign exchange reserves in the month. The mainland's economic upward trend has been consolidated and strengthened, and the fundamentals of the long-term positive economy will not change, which will provide support for the scale of foreign exchange reserves to remain basically stable.

SAFE Issued Circular on Further Optimizing the Administration of Trade Foreign Exchange Business to Promote Cross-border Trade Facilitation The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) issued the Circular of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Further Optimizing the Administration of Trade Foreign Exchange Business (hereinafter referred to as the "Circular"), which will come into effect on June 1, 2024. The "Notice" has a total of 6 policy measures, mainly including three aspects, one is to optimize the registration management of foreign trade enterprises. The handling method of the "List of Trade Foreign Exchange Receipts and Payments Enterprises" will be adjusted from the approval of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange to the direct handling of the bank. The second is to facilitate the settlement of foreign exchange receipts and payments for cross-border trade of enterprises. Simplify the trade balance and payment procedures for enterprises in areas under special customs supervision. Relax the authority of banks to handle special foreign exchange refunds for trade in goods (non-original returns or refunds for more than 180 days). Optimize the handling of deferred foreign exchange collection and payment for Class B and C enterprises. The third is to clean up and integrate the foreign exchange management regulations on trade in goods. Abolish some documents, consolidate the provisions on the handling of foreign exchange registration business for trade in goods, and revise some forms of documents.

Regulatory-guided new stock inquiry pricing is becoming more and more reasonable, and the breakage rate is only 3.03% during the year According to the Securities Daily, since the beginning of this year, affected by many factors such as the decrease in the number of new shares issued and the stricter supervision of new stock pricing, the "new" market has shown new changes, which is reflected in the sharp decline in the breakage rate and the average increase in the closing price of new shares on the first day of more than 100%. According to the statistics of Wind Information, as of April 8, the breakage rate of the 33 new stocks listed during the year was only 3.03%, and it showed a continuous downward trend. According to statistics, in the same period of 2023, 12 of the 76 new stocks were broken, with a breakage rate of 15.79%, and in the same period of 2022, 21 of the 91 new stocks were broken, with a breakage rate of 23.08%. In terms of the first-day market performance of new stocks, the average first-day closing price of 33 new stocks during the year increased by 102.77%, showing a significant upward trend compared with 38.33% in the same period in 2023 and 36.40% in the same period in 2022. From the perspective of individual stocks, there are 13 companies with an increase of more than 100% in the closing price on the first day of listing and 26 companies with an increase of more than 50%.

On April 12, the Shanghai Gold Exchange announced that, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the "Shanghai Gold Exchange Risk Control Management Measures", the margin ratio and price limit of gold deferred contract transactions and the margin of performance guarantee inquiry contracts were adjusted. The relevant matters are hereby notified as follows: starting from the closing liquidation on April 15, 2024 (Monday), the margin ratio of Au (T+D), mAu (T+D), Au (T+N1), Au (T+N2), NYAuTN06, NYAuTN12 and other contracts will be adjusted from 8% to 9%, and the limit on the rise and fall of the next trading day will be adjusted from 7% to 8%; The margin of CAu99.99 contract has been adjusted from 45,000 yuan per lot to 51,000 yuan per lot.

During the year, a total of 19.7 billion yuan was approved for the issuance of bonds and capital increases by insurance companies, and it is expected that the demand for "blood replenishment" will remain high throughout the year According to the Securities Daily, insurance companies will issue bonds intensively and increase capital this year. On April 9, the State Administration of Financial Supervision and Administration issued the Reply on the Issuance of Capital Supplementary Bonds by Chinese Property and Casualty Insurance Co., Ltd., agreeing that PICC Property & Casualty Insurance Co., Ltd. will publicly issue 10-year redeemable capital supplementary bonds in the national interbank bond market, with an issuance scale of RMB 12 billion. Judging from public data, this is the first case of an insurance company issuing capital supplementary bonds this year with regulatory approval. According to the reporter's statistics, since the beginning of this year, 8 insurance companies have been approved to increase their capital, with a capital increase of more than 7.7 billion yuan. During the year, a total of 19.7 billion yuan was "blood replenishment". The interviewed experts said that due to factors such as the second phase of the second generation project, the fluctuation of the capital market last year, and the deep adjustment and transformation of the industry, the demand for capital replenishment in the insurance industry will remain high in 2024.

According to the Securities Daily, since the beginning of this year, regulatory law enforcement has been "long teeth and thorns", large fines in the capital market have been issued frequently, and strong regulatory signals have been continuously released. According to incomplete statistics from the websites of the China Securities Regulatory Commission and local securities regulatory bureaus, since the beginning of this year, the regulatory authorities have issued 88 administrative penalty decisions, and the amount of fines and confiscations is close to 900 million yuan. Among them, there were 47 illegal fines, accounting for 53.41%, and 27 were involved in financial fraud, accounting for 30.68%. In addition, there were 17 cases involving insider trading (including leakage of inside information) and 4 cases involving market manipulation. Under the regulatory concept of "two strong and two strict", the regulatory authorities will continue to improve the efficiency of law enforcement, increase law enforcement efforts, and strike hard at illegal acts such as fraudulent issuance, financial fraud, market manipulation, insider trading, etc., and continue to send a clear signal of "zero tolerance" to the market to create a good market order.

According to the Economic Information Daily, this year's "low-altitude economy" was written into the government work report for the first time, and the reporter noticed that many places are actively laying out the development of the low-altitude economy, and have successively introduced low-altitude economy-related planning and support policies, and continue to optimize the development environment in terms of industrial agglomeration and application scenarios. At the same time, many companies are also focusing on cutting-edge fields to accelerate the technological innovation and industry application of products such as electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft (eVTOL) and civil drones. The industry believes that with the increasing number of low-altitude flight activities, the effect of low-altitude infrastructure investment is gradually emerging, and it is optimistic that the scale of low-altitude economy is expected to exceed one trillion yuan by 2026.

According to the Shanghai Securities News, the latest data from the private placement network shows that as of the end of March, the average drawdown of tens of billions of private placements has narrowed to 0.63% since the beginning of this year, and the subjective strategy private placement has turned losses into profits. From the perspective of the investment layout of high-performing private placements, cross-border ETFs are favored. According to the data, in March this year, the average return of 83 10-billion-level private placements with performance was 1.92%, of which 71 10-billion-level private placements achieved positive returns, accounting for 85.84%. As of the end of March, the average drawdown of tens of billions of private placements this year narrowed to 0.63%, and the proportion of positive returns rose to 42.17%. According to statistics, as of the end of March, the average return of 37 10-billion-level subjective private placements with performance records was 1.51% this year, and the proportion of positive returns was 56.76%. However, in the same period, the average drawdown of tens of billions of quantitative private placements was as high as 3.53%, of which positive returns accounted for only 18.18%.

The M&A and restructuring market was active during the year, and listed companies actively set up industrial M&A funds According to Securities Daily, Flush iFinD data shows that the M&A and restructuring of the A-share market was more active during the year. According to the calculation of the first announcement date and excluding the failure cases, as of the press release on April 8, the A-share market has disclosed a total of 587 mergers and acquisitions since the beginning of this year, of which 87 have been completed and 500 are in progress. It is worth noting that behind many M&A targets, several investment institutions are waiting to exit. The industry said that in the primary market, M&A exit has become an important exit method. In the international market, mergers and acquisitions once surpassed IPOs to become the mainstream exit channel. At present, more and more investment institutions are aware of the importance of M&A channels, believing that M&A can achieve a faster and more stable exit.

According to Securities Daily, the phenomenon of spin-off and listing of A-share companies has cooled down significantly. According to incomplete statistics, four companies have terminated the "A split A" plan during the year, and many companies have "dismantled" their children to be listed on the New Third Board, or are preparing to go public in Hong Kong. In addition, the number of companies that disclosed their spin-off plans for the first time during the year also decreased compared to previous years. Tian Lihui, dean of the Financial Development Research Institute of Nankai University, told reporters that the termination of the spin-off can be a change in the strategic decision of the enterprise, or a change in the company's operating conditions, or the expected goal of the spin-off plan is frustrated. Enterprises are required to fully disclose the reasons and effects of the termination of the spin-off to protect the rights and interests of investors.

Monetary and economic policy

Lian Ping (President and Chief Economist of Guangkai Chief Industry Research Institute): Macro policies have increased strategic expansion

Category Market Views 20240408-0414

real estate

Tianfeng Securities

Chinese real estate will not follow the old path of Japan

China's real estate market is fundamentally different from the historical real estate crises in Japan and the United States, which are mainly reflected in three aspects: demand space, leverage use and financialization.

First of all, in terms of demand space, China's urbanization process is different from the real estate market in Japan in the 90s and the United States in 2007. There is still room for growth in China's urbanization rate, especially the large gap between the urbanization rate of the registered population and the urbanization rate of the permanent population, indicating that the potential housing demand still exists. In addition, there are about 250 million people in China who do not work and live in their hukou areas, and the housing needs of this group of people are affected by the hukou policy, resulting in a regional supply and demand divergence in the real estate market, with some regions likely to face structural surpluses and others to be structurally deficient.

Second, in terms of leverage, the average down payment ratio of Chinese residents is relatively high, which means that even if house prices fall, the proportion of properties in negative equity will not be too high. Compared to the low or no down payment during the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, China's homebuyers are not highly leveraged, which has helped to slow the pace of decline in home prices. In addition, China has not yet universally implemented a personal bankruptcy system, which means that even if the property becomes negative equity, banks can recover the remaining loans, spreading the risk among individuals and slowing the transmission of risk to the financial system.

Finally, in terms of the degree of financialization, the financial attributes and degree of financialization of China's real estate market are relatively low, and there is no complex real estate derivatives market similar to that of the United States. This means that the risk diffusion momentum in China's real estate market is suppressed, and it is not easy to have a chain reaction like the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States.

To sum up, although China's real estate market has a tendency to bubble demand in the past, it has begun to resolve continuously and rapidly since the second half of 2021. Factors such as low leverage, low financialization and the absence of a personal bankruptcy system have combined to play a role in the deceleration of China's real estate risk transmission. Therefore, despite market concerns, the adjustment process of China's real estate market should be viewed rationally, and its economic background and system are different from those of the international market, and should not be simply compared.

Founder Securities:

In the first quarter, sales declined, the concentration of land acquisition was further strengthened, and high-quality leaders were more resilient.

The relationship between supply and demand in the real estate market has undergone major changes, the industry risk has not yet completely ended, and the confidence on the demand side still needs to wait. In this context, according to CRIC statistics, on the sales side: in the first quarter of 2024, the cumulative sales amount of the TOP100 real estate companies will be 846.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of -49.1%. The leading real estate enterprises weakened to varying degrees in the first quarter, but the sales of leading real estate companies in the first quarter were generally better than those of the industry, showing a certain degree of resilience; Land acquisition: In the first quarter of 2024, due to the structure of land supply and other reasons, the new value of the top 100 real estate companies increased by +24.3% year-on-year.

The water level of the performance reservoir may decline, and the follow-up revenue needs to be boosted by sales.

As of the end of 2023, the total contract liabilities (including pre-receivables) of the 25 A-share real estate enterprises whose main business is real estate development business (sample real estate enterprises, the same below) were 755.6 billion yuan, down 25.8% year-on-year from 1,018.9 billion yuan at the end of 2022. In recent years, the industry's overall willingness to invest is not strong, and the confidence on the demand side is still insufficient, and the pressure on industry sales may directly lead to the decline of industry contract liabilities, and it is expected that the water level of the real estate sector performance reservoir will continue to decline in 2024Q1.

Gross profit margin may remain under pressure, and cost control may be a core factor in maintaining corporate profitability.

In 2023, the overall gross profit margin of the sample real estate enterprises will be 17.1% (-3.0pct compared with the gross profit margin of 2022), and it is expected that the gross profit margin of the real estate sector will remain under pressure in 2024Q1. In terms of period rates, the overall period rate of sample real estate enterprises in 2023 is 7.3% (+0.1pct compared with the period rate in 2022). In recent years, the overall rate of sample real estate enterprises has remained at about 7.0% during the period, and it is expected that the rate level will remain stable during 2024Q1.

债市

CITIC Securities: The possibility of RRR cuts is rising, or it will be implemented in the second quarter

From the perspective of monetary policy attitude, bond supply pressure, and supporting the performance of the capital market, the possibility of the current RRR cut is rising, or it will be implemented in the second quarter. For the bond market, there has been no obvious switch in the main line of the bond market in April, and the acceleration of the supply of government bonds may form a marginal disturbance to the bond market, but the pattern of overall low interest rate shocks may continue.

Review of recent bond market trends:

After the larger-than-expected PMI landed at the end of March, the bond market slightly loosened the pattern of bearish passivation on fundamentals, but inflation data showed that the pressure on the bond market from short-term fundamental repair was controllable. Entering April, the issuance of special treasury bonds may be approaching, although the liquidity gap in April is seasonally low, but we should also pay attention to the impact of the concentrated supply of government bonds. In this regard, the market pays more attention to what form and intensity of monetary policy tools the central bank will adopt in the future.

The likelihood of RRR cuts is rising:

(1) Although the PBOC has been relatively cautious in its quantitative operations since March, it is still positive in its policy statements on important occasions, and may still adopt RRR cuts in the second quarter for the sake of maintaining the stability of the RMB.

(2) RRR cuts can release medium- and long-term liquidity to support the issuance of special treasury bonds and other long-term bonds: On the one hand, the second quarter may become the issuance window of ultra-long-term treasury bonds, and on the other hand, according to the Financial Associated Press, the three policy banks plan to significantly increase the issuance of long-term bonds. The increase in bond supply is likely to have an impact on the bond market and drive interest rates upward. However, the central government's fiscal expansion and government bond interest rates need to remain stable to avoid a significant increase in the central debt ratio and the debt costs of other financial institutions, so the central bank may release medium- and long-term liquidity through RRR cuts.

(3) At present, the A-share market is in a period of revision of domestic economic expectations and global liquidity expectations, and the A-share market is changing from incremental capital to stock capital game, and the volatility may increase significantly, and the RRR cut can boost investor confidence, thereby stabilizing the performance of the capital market, especially the stock market.

Outlook:

At present, the possibility of RRR cut is rising, or it will be implemented in the second quarter, and the specific timing may be moderately front-loaded in combination with the rhythm of special treasury bond issuance. Considering that the deposit reserve ratio has been lowered by 0.5 percentage points in February this year, if the RRR is cut in the second quarter, the range may be 25bps, corresponding to the release of liquidity of 500 billion yuan. For the bond market, there has been no obvious switch in the main line of the bond market in April, and the acceleration of the supply of government bonds may form a marginal disturbance to the bond market, but considering that the central bank is likely to provide sufficient liquidity support through RRR cuts, the overall pattern of low and ultra-long bond interest rates may continue.

Great Wall Securities: The bond market may still be dominated by shocks

Last week, the overall funding situation was slightly tighter, but short-end yields fell. R001 decreased from 1.88% on April 1 to 1.73% on April 7; DR001 also fell from 1.72% to 1.71%; DR007 fluctuated in the range of 1.81%~1.87%, and FR007 (repo fixing rate) fluctuated in the range of 1.85%~2.10%. In terms of open market operations, the central bank invested 6 billion yuan in reverse repurchase last week, and the weekly amount of funds was a new low in recent years, the total maturity of reverse repurchase was 450 billion yuan, and the final net withdrawal of currency was 444 billion yuan.

China's yield curve has steepened and moved downward. Although the central bank only carried out 6 billion yuan of reverse repurchase, the net withdrawal is larger, but it has not changed the situation of loose funds, and the current standard for judging whether the funds are loose has changed from "volume" to "price", that is, from DR007 and other interest rate indicators to judge, rather than from the central bank's net number of observations.

On March 29, the central bank held a regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee for the first quarter of 2024, in which it emphasized that "it is necessary to increase the implementation of the monetary policy that has been introduced", indicating that the monetary policies such as RRR and interest rate cuts implemented since the first quarter will still appear in the future. At the same time, the central bank also pointed out that "in the process of economic recovery, we should also pay attention to the change in long-term yields", which caused widespread discussion in the bond market during the Qingming Festival holiday. The market generally believes that the central bank's move is a reminder that the yield on long-term bonds (10 and 30 years) has fallen too fast in the past two months, but judging from the fact that the bond market did not fall sharply on April 8, the market may not have overreacted to this, and the bond market may still be dominated by volatility in the short term.

stock market

Guosheng Securities

The structure of the continuous rebound of the two city indices is still not over, and there may be repair expectations in the short term, coupled with the recently released economic data in March that is better than market expectations, and the economic recovery may be in the acceleration stage, which will lay a good foundation for the further rebound of A-shares, and the market is expected to continue to rebound and even challenge new highs. Therefore, the market bullish sentiment is still relatively positive, and you can continue to actively go long around the main line of the market, such as non-ferrous metals, low-altitude economy and other sectors or stocks with better fundamentals. Looking forward to the second quarter, Ping An Securities believes that the overall opportunities in the A-share market still outweigh the risks, and the valuation level of major indices is still below the historical average level. It is recommended to grasp investment opportunities along the direction of economic changes and reform policies: first, the dividend strategy, pay attention to the dividend level under the dividend reform, such as coal, banks, petroleum and petrochemical sectors and enterprises that may have room for improvement; second, new quality productivity, benefiting from the expected growth of the digital economy TMT, advanced manufacturing and biomedicine; third, the prosperity is expected to improve the upstream resource sector, such as nonferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemical.

Haitong Securities' A-share outlook for the second quarter: Baima stocks may become the main line in the medium term, focusing on electronics, digital infrastructure, etc

In the second quarter, A-shares may be volatile

Haitong Securities pointed out that since the beginning of the year, A-shares have shown a V-shaped trend. Looking back at the trend of A-shares in the first quarter of this year, from January to early February, the market fell rapidly under the disturbance of negative factors such as fundamentals and capital, and with the introduction of positive policies one after another, there have also been positive changes in the capital side, and A-shares have rebounded rapidly since the beginning of February. Since 2/5, the stock market has rebounded after the bottom, and the rate of rise in this round of market is significantly faster than that of history, and the market has also accumulated a certain amount of profit-taking pressure, and the short-term market upward rhythm may slow down.

After the first wave of the market in history, it is necessary to pay attention to the verification of fundamental data. The current policy tone has turned positive, but it remains to be seen the effect of policy implementation and whether the subsequent macroeconomic data can accelerate the recovery. In addition, it has entered April, and the follow-up will enter the performance intensive disclosure window period, and the verification of the fundamental data of listed companies will also become an important factor affecting the market. If the short-term fundamental data verification is less than expected, the stock market as a whole may be in a volatile position in the second quarter.

White horse stocks may become the main line in the medium term

Haitong Securities believes that looking back on history, it can be found that the first wave of rise in the early stage of the bull market is mainly due to policy easing and sentiment repair, and the trend of fundamentals has not yet been clarified, so the market at this stage often does not have a specific main line of market, but presents the characteristics of general rise and rotation of various industries. After the market shock in the second quarter, it is expected to clarify the main line of the market.

Although it is still necessary to observe the fundamental performance in the short term, with the increase and effectiveness of the stable growth policy in the medium term, the macro and micro fundamentals are expected to gradually improve, and the white horse sector with low valuation and greater performance elasticity may gradually usher in layout opportunities. At present, the valuation of the white horse sector has been low, and if the white horse stocks want to prevail, the necessary conditions are the domestic economic upturn, the improvement of corporate earnings, and the inflow of institutional funds represented by foreign capital.

In the second half of the year, the Fed's interest rate cut cycle may begin, and the A-share capital side will also usher in a positive catalyst, and the white horse sector may gradually usher in a layout period.

From a medium-term perspective, the growth of white horses is more sustainable

With the policy efforts to promote the restoration of fundamentals, and the continuous return of foreign capital on the capital side, the white horse sector with low valuation and greater performance flexibility in the medium term may become the main line of the stock market. From the perspective of the white horse stocks, the white horse stocks can be further subdivided into two asset classes: white horse stability and white horse growth. At present, domestic policies are gradually intensifying, but in the short term, it remains to be seen whether the economic recovery can be strengthened; overseas inflation in the United States is still resilient, and the Fed may have to wait until the second half of the year to cut interest rates. Therefore, in the context of the need to consolidate the economic recovery, the postponement of overseas interest rate cuts, and the need to repair the market wind, the short-term white horse is stable or more stable.

If we focus on a longer cycle, policy support and technological breakthroughs accelerate the independent and controllable field of electronic segments, the aging trend accelerates the release of pharmaceutical demand, the fundamentals of electronics, medicine and other industries are gradually reversing, and the sustainability of the growth of white horses such as technology manufacturing and medicine may be better. In addition, liquor and new energy in the Baima sector may have a phased rebound opportunity.

Chief Core Opinion Set (08 April – 14 April 2024)

2. Economic outlook

3. Investment Strategy

Monetary and economic policy

Category Market Views 20240408-0414