Solid-state batteries continue to be popular.
The GAC Group announced that the Haobo model equipped with a new solid-state battery will be launched first.
With the third-generation silicon anode and high-capacity technology, the energy density of solid-state batteries can reach 400 Wh/kg, which is more than 52% higher than that of traditional batteries, and can easily achieve a range of more than 1,000 kilometers.
Not only new energy vehicles, in fact, the largest market for solid-state batteries in the future is eVTOL aircraft, that is, flying cars.
As Li Bin, the CEO of NIO, said, few people will drive 1,000 kilometers in a row.
However, flying cars are possible.
So, what pain points does solid-state batteries solve for flying cars?
Flying cars need to go through stages such as take-off, cruise, and hovering, and the requirements for batteries are extremely strict.
As a core component of eVTOL (electric vertical take-off and landing) technology, the performance and safety of batteries directly determine the performance and market acceptance of aircraft vehicles.
There are two key performance indicators for batteries, one is energy density, and the other is power density.
In terms of energy density, the power required by flying cars is 10-15 times that of electric vehicles, and the commercial threshold of batteries is above 400Wh/kg, and the future requirements will reach 1000Wh/kg, which directly determines the endurance of flying cars.
Comparatively speaking, power density, that is, the discharge power per unit mass of the battery, is a more critical performance indicator for flying cars, which determines whether the aircraft can take off and land safely.
In view of the limitations of traditional liquid batteries and the high requirements for aircraft battery performance, high-performance solid-state batteries are expected to take the lead in the flying car market.
At present, the domestic market has begun to mass-produce 400Wh/kg aviation solid-state batteries, and the energy density and power density have met the rigid requirements of flying cars, achieving a breakthrough.
At the same time, the world's first eVTOL airworthiness certificate has been issued to Chinese companies, and companies such as CITIC Haizhi and EHang have already begun to build a flying car network and will soon start operation.
It has to be said that solid-state batteries have become a global business card for China's eVTOL industry.
So, what will be the future market size of solid-state batteries?
Flying cars bring 10 billion new battery markets.
First of all, look at the pre-installation market, it is expected that in the next 10 years, the domestic cumulative demand for flying cars is 17,000, assuming that a single aircraft with 200kWh, the price is 3 yuan/Wh, and the battery value of a single aircraft is 600,000 yuan, which corresponds to the overall pre-installation market size of more than 10 billion yuan.
The aftermarket needs to be bigger.
Based on the current performance of solid-state batteries and the frequency of use of flying cars, we estimate that solid-state batteries need to be replaced every two years.
Then, during the 20-year service life of the flying car, the battery needs to be replaced 10 times, and the average price of a single flying car to replace the battery is 450,000, which is converted into the overall domestic solid-state battery aftermarket of about 103 billion yuan.
Next, let's take a look at the domestic production capacity.
By the end of 2023, the domestic solid-state battery production capacity plan is close to 400GWh, which is sufficient compared with the annual power battery shipment of 680GWh.
However, at this stage, the shipment volume is low, and the good news is that the progress is very fast.
In 2023, domestic solid-state battery shipments will be 26GWh, and it is expected that solid-state batteries are expected to achieve 49GWh shipments in 2024 and 315 GWh by 2030, with an average annual compound growth rate of about 35%.
It can be said that the battery market is a blue ocean, as long as the solid-state battery accelerates large-scale commercialization, both the new space and the replacement space are huge, and domestic enterprises have already achieved industrialization layout in this field.
So, how is the solid-state battery industry chain and what are the highlights?
The solid-state battery industry chain is divided into three parts: upstream, midstream and downstream.
The upstream raw materials are mainly lithium and cobalt and other mineral resources, the midstream is cathode materials, anode materials, solid-state electrolytes, etc., among which solid-state electrolytes are the core materials of solid-state batteries, and the downstream are power, energy storage, consumption and other application fields.
1. Upstream direction
At present, there is a gap in the supply of upstream solid-state electrolytes, and factors such as short supply and slow development have also become constraints to industrialization.
Sanxiang New Materials
In order to cope with the incremental demand for solid-state batteries, the company's new production line of 100,000 tons of zirconium oxychloride has been put into operation, once the zirconium oxychloride lithium solid-state battery is officially landed, the company will become the biggest beneficiary.
Shanghai Wash
In 2023, it has begun to provide solid-state electrolytes for downstream battery manufacturers, basically covering the head battery manufacturers, with a production capacity of 50 tons under construction, and expansion is also being planned, with stronger certainty than companies that are still in the research and development stage.
Next, in the upstream cathode material direction, we will introduce 3 key companies.
Fengyuan shares
Oxalate is an important combination material for solid-state cathodes, and the company's revenue continues to grow rapidly due to the gradual mass production of midstream solid-state battery manufacturers.
In the first three quarters of 2023, the company's revenue will be 2.32 billion, a year-on-year increase of 91.2%, of which the company's revenue in the third quarter will be 875 million, an increase of 50.6% quarter-on-quarter, and the single-quarter revenue scale will achieve 8 times growth in 3 years, making it the most growing company in the industry.
When the rise of technology
The solid-state cathode has achieved 100-ton shipments, and the sales volume has increased several times year-on-year, supporting the installation of battery factories such as Qingtao and Weilan.
Ronbay Technology
The company's Ni90 high-nickel products have been supplied to Weilan New Energy's 360Wh/kg solid-state batteries, which have been officially applied to three models including NIO ET7.
In addition, the companies that can be paid attention to in the negative electrode direction include Putailai, Yuanli Shares, Lanxi Zhide, Beiteri, Xiangfenghua, etc.
2. Midstream direction
Ganfeng Lithium
The solid-state battery production capacity is 10GWh, and the long-term plan is more than 40GWh, and it has been equipped with Cialis European models, which is the earliest solid-state battery commercialization enterprise and has built the largest solid-state battery production base in China.
Although the company's performance in 2023 is under pressure, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has stabilized in early 2024. The company also increased its capital by 33.33% of the equity of Ruichi Electric, a subsidiary of Cialis, to further build a vertically integrated business model, and the second growth curve of solid-state batteries can be expected.
CATL
The world's leading battery manufacturing company, focusing on the layout of sulfide all-solid-state routes, has been mass-produced with high-energy-density solid-state batteries. In April 2023, the company released a solid-state battery with an energy density of up to 500Wh/kg, which is mainly used in the aircraft and automotive field, and is implementing aviation-grade standards and tests.
Gotion Hi-Tech
The 360Wh/kg solid-state battery has entered the mass production stage with a range of more than 1,000 kilometers, and the 400Wh/kg ternary solid-state battery has a prototype sample, and will be implemented in silicon-based anode and lithium metal anode technology in the future.
As the saying goes, the train runs fast because of the headband, and the locomotive is the source of power to move forward.
In the same way, in the field of eVTOL, solid-state batteries perfectly meet the market demand of flying cars, and are the core technical link to promote the implementation of new industrialization, and the future market space is huge.
Pay attention to Little Elephant and get the most valuable "Growth 20: 20 Companies with the Most Growth Potential in 2024" investment report now!