Today I will talk about a technical issue, about the buying and selling point.
The recent market has made many retail investors who are chasing up and down suffer.
You always feel that you have to break through, every time you chase up, you are hit by a board, and suddenly you feel as if you are going to break the position, and every time you just fall out, you rise back again.
Let's start with an important point.
That is, for the market, we must first have a basic judgment.
If your basic judgment is wrong, it is difficult to make money in a volatile market, and it is good not to lose money.
There are three options for this basic judgment.
1. Adjustments on the way up.
The adjustment on the way up must be a good opportunity to increase positions.
To put it simply, it is an opportunity to buy, buy, buy, and pick up people in reverse.
On the way up, some funds need to be cashed in profits, so they will sell their chips and fall.
It's not a simple shuffle, it's a change of hands in chips.
There are many kinds of adjustments on the way up, but from the index level, this decline will not be too deep, and it will be yin and yang.
If it's an adjustment on the way up, just follow the discipline of low suction.
2. Waiting on the way to the shock.
There is also a kind of market, which is a simple shock.
This kind of market is the most difficult to judge, because human nature itself is bullish or bearish.
The simple shock is that the main force has made a price cage and played with retail investors, which is directly wool.
When retail investors are unilaterally bullish, it is easy to chase higher.
If you are bearish, or if you are afraid, it is easy to stop loss and leave the market.
No matter which one it is, it is all in the middle of it, and the leeks are properly cut.
The judgment of the volatile market is very difficult, if you can't understand it, just keep fifty percent of the position and wait patiently.
For example, when you walk into a dense trading area, the index repeatedly oscillates back and forth in a range, and there is no directional choice.
Prioritize lowering your position and then be patient.
3. A rebound on the way down.
The last one, which is the most difficult to do and the easiest to trap, is the rebound on the way down.
To put it bluntly, this is a downward trend, and the rebound is an opportunity to run away.
On the way down, if you chase the rise and kill the fall, it will be very fatal, especially the behavior of chasing the rise.
The buying point and the selling point are just the opposite.
All the rises, stop at the key moving average position, and form a clear resistance line, is a rebound on the way down, and the rebound must be a runaway.
Judging the downtrend is actually relatively simple, give up the mindset of the main bullish and look for the position of each high point of the capital.
If you fail to break through the high twice or three times, or if the high moves downward, you have to admit that you have entered a downtrend.
Once the trend has formed, give up on buying points and concentrate on finding selling points.
If you don't know how to make a basic judgment, what should you do? How to sell high and buy low, how to find a buying and selling point?
This is a question that many people have.
First of all, if you don't know how to judge, my personal advice is to lie flat, lie flat in half a position, and don't do anything.
You don't even know the trend of the market, and you want to make money by trading, it's impossible, it's a complete joke.
Another way is to sell high and buy low to do index ETFs.
Because of the index itself, the risk is very low, and there will be no large-scale losses at most.
It is relatively simple to sell high and buy low in the index.
For example, if the market fluctuates at 3000-3100, then sell close to 3100 and buy back near 3000.
Don't take emotions, simply follow the rise and fall of the index, and mechanically execute high and low buy.
The so-called buying and selling point is the point of the index, do not follow any technical rules, forget the technology.
Another, more common way, is to do the buying and selling point control on the technical cycle.
It's actually quite simple, but the premise is to follow the rules.
The rise and fall of a stock will eventually form a simple fluctuation cycle.
The easiest way to identify the cycle is to look at the MACD indicator.
Most retail investors are familiar with the MACD as a golden cross to buy and a dead cross to sell.
But following the MACD to do the market, it seems that you can't make any money, because there is often a golden fork that dies not long after.
Here are a few important points to emphasize.
First, about the time period.
The MACD is essentially a lagging technical indicator, so it will appear that you can't make money by buying it.
Many of the indicators for buying and selling points are designed according to the underlying logic of MACD.
Most investors use the daily level of buying and selling.
But the actual situation is that the use of 60 minutes, 120 minutes, including the weekly line, multi-period combination is the most effective.
For example, the level of the weekly golden cross is completely different from the daily line, especially the long-term adjusted golden cross.
For example, if you want to buy a good point, one step ahead of others, you have to look at the 60-minute and 120-minute golden cross, not the daily line.
Different cycles, different buying and selling points, and different corresponding prices.
Of course, the earlier you buy, the lower the price, the greater the corresponding risk, and the same is true for selling.
Second, about the identification of scam lines.
K-lines can deceive people, and the corresponding indicators must also deceive people.
The MACD deception line is actually very easy to identify.
The MACD's golden cross, out of the red, the corresponding K-line, should theoretically be a yang line, or even above the middle yang.
But the deception line, the corresponding yang line, is often a weak yang line, or even a yin line.
This is the deception line made by using the method after the indicator.
Moreover, the main deception line has a cycle and cost, and it will not be deceived every day, and it will not be able to bear it by itself.
Therefore, the slow half-beat on the indicator, it is obvious to change the period.
Large cycles and small cycles, like nesting dolls, are interlocking, and the higher the degree of periodic coupling, the higher the actual accuracy.
It is impossible for the deception line to be completely non-existent, but if it is identified for multiple cycles, it can effectively prevent the deception line.
Third, about position arrangement.
There is no such thing as 100% accuracy in buying points, so there must be a need to make position arrangements.
For example, if you use 60 minutes as a buy point, because the cycle frequency is shorter and the probability of error is high, the position should be divided into at least 2-3 times.
If you buy a point with a daily line, the cycle frequency is slightly longer, and the position can be concentrated a little bit, divided into 1-2 times.
There are some weekly buying points, once the trend is established, the risk is very small.
It is very important to correlate the position with the frequency of trading.
Especially in a volatile market, the position must not be filled at one time, it will be very passive.
Only when you want to enter the unilateral upward trend, you can be bolder, otherwise you are cautious.
The buying and selling point itself is a rule, and this rule can follow a certain law, but try not to make subjective assumptions and do whatever you want.
Indicators cannot be 100% accurate, but they are much better and have a higher success rate than emotional trading.