Due to the influence of pessimism about the war on the front line and the rear, the current Ukrainian army is in a stage of internal and external difficulties, personnel changes at the top of the army, insufficient troops, shortage of ammunition, low morale, significant reduction in Western weapons aid, and the increasingly fierce Russian offensive, the inability to take into account both the front line and the rear are directly or indirectly affecting the combat efficiency of this army.
In this conflict, which has lasted for more than two years, Ukraine's current disadvantages have become more and more obvious, which even those of us who are outsiders can clearly understand, and the soldiers who are in it are naturally well aware of this. But even in this situation, the Ukrainian top brass still firmly believes that they can win this war, and is still actively planning this year's "big counteroffensive" operation...
This attitude of the Ukrainian top brass has made it difficult for the soldiers under their hands, and batches of recruits have been "crammed" to the front line, and very few can come back alive, on the contrary, the scale of the Ukrainian cemetery is constantly expanding; after the Verkhovna Rada recently passed the resolution of "canceling the 36-month service of soldiers and they can be automatically demobilized", those soldiers who had hoped to survive the service period and escape the war completely lost confidence (of course, most people are unlikely to survive the 36-month period completely).
As a result, since the Ukrainian army has entered 2024, the number of deserters on the battlefield has begun to surge, and since the country has decided to let Ukrainian soldiers "die" on the battlefield, the GIs have begun to find their own ways to escape from this war.
According to a report released by the Prosecutor General's Office of Ukraine, in the first three months of this year, the Ukrainian prosecutor's office has received at least 13,000 cases of military personnel fleeing their posts (this is what we call "deserters"), involving more than 25,000 people;
In 2022, there were only more than 6,000 cases of desertion recorded in Ukraine, and about 16,000 in 2023, and according to the performance in the first three months of this year, there will be at least 50,000 cases of desertion in Ukraine in 2024.
Of course, these are only cases of desertion that have been discovered, and there are many deserters who have not been recorded, and this number can be very staggering if you count them in detail.
It should be noted that if you choose to be a deserter in the Ukrainian army today, if you are caught, you will face very severe punishment. In January last year, Zelensky signed a new law on the punishment of deserters, revising the punishment measures for deserters in wartime, simply put, to make those deserters pay a heavier price;
According to the regulations, if a soldier's disobedience to the orders of his superiors is found and proven, he can be sentenced to up to eight years' imprisonment, compared to five years before, if a soldier flees without reason in the course of his duty, he can be sentenced to up to 10 years' imprisonment, and threats to commanders and questioning orders from superiors are also punished more severely, whereas in the past similar acts were at best a deduction of wages.
However, the more severe the punitive measures, the more serious the problems that Ukraine needs to face, and the more people will commit crimes against the wind.
Rather than being imprisoned, killed in battle, or captured and waiting for an exchange, some Ukrainian soldiers have chosen to flee the country completely, and it has been reported that some Ukrainian soldiers have risked crossing the border to escape the war and have fled directly to Romania for refuge, which is also recognized by many Ukrainian soldiers as one of the most effective ways to escape.
However, deserters are not so easy to be, if you want to smuggle out of the country, in addition to the need to pay expensive fees, all kinds of accidents on the way to escape are also unavoidable, on the way to escape to Romania, snow-capped mountains, rivers are fatal factors that may lead to the death of deserters.
However, some Ukrainian soldiers' "desertion" path is not their own choice, they may also be desperate to make a helpless move, such as the previous tragic battle of Avdiivka, many Ukrainian soldiers were abandoned by the large army, and after the hopeless escape, these people were either captured or forced to choose to become deserters.
Russian media have disclosed the original words of a Ukrainian soldier who was captured in the Battle of Avdiivka, from which we can learn some inside information; This soldier's name is Anatoly Prokunin, he was captured when covering the retreat of the main forces of the Ukrainian army, according to his description: At that time, their team was only more than 20 people, but the task they received was to cover the retreat of the main force of about 1,000 people of the Ukrainian army, and at that time these 20 people were facing a whole brigade of Russian soldiers, and this kind of battle can be imagined without fighting the result...
And before the team entered Avdiivka, no one told them what the mission was, and it was not until they went to the battlefield that a "commander" who appeared out of nowhere explained the mission to them and brought them to the position.
The outcome was predictable, as half of their squad fled after entering the position, and the other 10 or so surrendered after resisting for a while.
From such an example, you can get a rough idea of what the combat state of the Ukrainian army is!
In the face of the Russian army, which has obvious advantages in equipment, numbers and air power, the Ukrainian army with only ground forces is basically unable to fight now, once it enters the positional war, the Ukrainian soldiers will either surrender directly or abandon their positions and run away, and there is only a dead end waiting for them.
Just yesterday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also talked about the desertion phenomenon that is currently widespread in the Ukrainian army in public, and he mentioned a specific case, but did not directly say the number of the troops:
I think everyone knows about the desertion incident that happened in a certain unit before, but the key to the problem is not their desertion behavior, but that these people not only left the battlefield without authorization, but also caused many other troops to sacrifice a lot of people because of this, and Ukraine has never been merciful to this kind of behavior.
Fortunately, these deserters have been arrested by law enforcement officers, and the most severe trial and punishment awaits them.
Zelensky's remarks, I personally thought that he might be warning those deserters that Ukraine will never tolerate frequent desertion incidents, and even if they do, they will be finally brought to justice.
Compared to being meaninglessly thrown on the battlefield and waiting to die, being a deserter can at least give it a fight, and if you don't do it well, you can turn your bicycle into a motorcycle, and at worst you will be in prison for ten years! You will have food and drink, and you don't have to go to the front line to die...
Of course, desertion is not only in Ukraine, but also in the Russian army, but not on the same scale as in Ukraine.
At this point, some people may ask, isn't the risk of being a prisoner less than the risk of desertion?
Indeed, there is less risk of surrendering! and there is no need to face the punishment set up for deserters...
But the usual fate of the prisoners captured by Russia is that they will be exchanged back to Ukraine, and then the Ukrainian authorities, after a simple health examination of these exchanged prisoners of war, will be appropriately given a few days of vacation according to the condition of their injuries, and when they are almost rested, they will be sent to the front again, and so on, until the end of the whole drama after the "feast".
Desertion is risky, but if they succeed, even if they escape, as long as they are not caught, they don't have to return to the front line, but prisoners of war can't...