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When will the inflection point in the game between China and the United States come?
In the face of a rising China, the United States has been eyeing an alternative "war" without gunpowder. As the war dragged on, many people inevitably had such doubts.
In fact, the answer to this question is hidden in the history of the Anglo-American struggle for hegemony......
Strife: The Anglo-American Conflict
In the mid-19th century, an unprecedented Britain was thriving. At that time, it had a more domineering name: the Empire on which the sun never sets.
However, in a corner that has been ignored by the UK, the United States is rising at an unexpected pace.
Some people believe that, apart from hegemonism, expansion, and other national characteristics, Britain at that time was like the United States today, and the United States at that time was just like China today.
It is precisely for this reason that the relationship between Britain and the United States has a strong reference significance for Sino-US relations in the 21 st century.
The United States was born out of Britain, but fate made it happen, and Britain never imagined that it would cultivate the most powerful competitor for itself in the future.
This hidden danger can be traced back to at least the American Revolutionary War.
As a result, the United States was born, and Britain's hegemony was shaken for the first time, and the two countries have since formed a bond. In fact, after the War of Independence, Britain and the United States also had many armed conflicts. For example, in 1793, when the two countries had a dispute over the border, Britain was furious and directly blocked the border between the United States and Canada.
In 1812, for example, the Second Anglo-American War broke out, although neither country was able to get much out of the other in the final Anglo-American Treaty of Ghent. But subtle changes have taken place, with confidence in the United States swelling and the whole country in high spirits.
Even, after the US military won the Battle of New Orleans, American public opinion unanimously believed that Britain had declined, and the so-called empire on which the sun never set would never return to its former glory.
The merciless ridicule and contempt set the stage for a deeper conflict between the two countries.
Between 1854 and 1856, Britain and the United States once again engaged in friction and struggled for control of the isthmus between China and the United States. Although Britain was menacing, in the end it had no choice but to compromise, and the United States had the upper hand. In the years that followed, Britain and the United States never stopped, and often quarreled at the slightest disagreement.
Whether it is territorial contention, regional hegemony, or historical grievances, they can all become the fuse for the outbreak of contradictions between the two countries. In 1862, Britain even tried to intervene in the American Civil War. However, the final victory of the northern camp crushed Britain's attempt to further intervene and divide the Union.
It can be seen that in a specific historical period, the conflict between Britain and the United States is inevitable, like the tip of a needle against a wheat. At the end of the day, there is only one reason: the United States is thriving and rapidly rising.
The United States, which is so full of vitality, has made Britain feel an unprecedented crisis.
Now, China's upward momentum is strong, and the United States is probably sweating profusely, for fear of becoming a victim under the rolling wheels of history.
For Britain and the United States, geopolitics and the international system are necessary factors that lead to conflict. Although Britain and the United States are not geographically close to each other, the two countries share the same power space and compete with each other for the right to speak.
As an independent country not bound by Britain, the rise of the United States on the American continent is itself a provocation to Britain. The United States is like an unruly outsider, breaking the world order carefully constructed by Britain, and it is no wonder that Britain does not like the United States.
The same sentiment can be seen everywhere in today's Sino-US relations.
Before the reform and opening up, the United States had never taken China into account, believing that China was not to be feared and that it was an ancient country that had declined. Unexpectedly, China overtook in the corners and forcibly embarked on a development path of its own, and this huge potential made the United States break its defense.
Britain is targeting the United States, and the United States is making things difficult for China, which is essentially a fear of an uncertain future. However, the wheel of history is rolling forward, and it is inevitable that the old and the new will alternate.
In this case, how did the United States break the deadlock back then?
Historical inflection point: Britain and the United States move towards reconciliation
In fact, the United States has only done two things: wait and develop.
The so-called waiting is to wait for Britain to come to a predetermined end, and development, as the name suggests, is to struggle to survive in the cracks of the high walls built by Britain, continue to improve its strength, and not compromise with a stronger country.
Britain's decline has been evident since the end of the 19th century. At that time, the relationship between Britain and the United States also took a historic turn.
The hardline attitude of the United States has made Britain realize that the United States is not a soft persimmon to be manipulated by others, but an opponent that is not easy to mess with. As a result, the United States could neither become a colony of Britain nor be part of the great powers' pattern of competition. After all, the UK is still the dominant player in this model.
So, starting in 1896, Britain began to really re-examine the United States.
Britain judged that if it tore its face with the United States, it would inevitably usher in a lose-lose outcome. It would be better to change the way of thinking and let the interests of Britain and the United States complement each other. Soon, this notion was embodied in the 1899 Venezuelan border dispute.
For the first time, Britain made a historic concession by recognizing the Monroe Doctrine in its official name. This means that Britain has finally given up the idea of including the United States in its territory, and has recognized that there is only one master of the Americas, and that is the United States.
At this point, Anglo-American relations gradually improved. Subsequently, Britain's concessions became more apparent.
In 1901, Britain and the United States signed a treaty, which once again clarified the ownership of the Sino-American Isthmus Canal. Not only did the United States use this resource freely, but it also regained control of the military initiative. Three years later, in order to express its sincerity in seeking peace, Britain voluntarily withdrew its military forces deployed in the West Indies and Canada.
This move by Britain is actually equivalent to abandoning the Western Hemisphere strategy. Since then, the Americas have become completely American territory.
Even the British government has promised that the United States will be the only exception in the Atlantic military defense plan. Britain's frequent overtures were naturally echoed by the United States, and Theodore Roosevelt wrote a letter to the British Prime Minister, calling both Britain and the United States "great British countries."
Public opinion in the two countries also tended to be harmonious, and the same blood, language, political system and ideology made Britain and the United States close before the First World War. However, the real change in Anglo-American relations will not have to wait until World War II.
During World War II, in order to fight fascism, Britain and the United States stood on the same side and became allies.
Nevertheless, the war dealt a very different blow to the two.
Britain and the United States were both victors, but Britain paid an even more painful price. For no other reason, the war swept through Britain and destroyed almost all of Britain's industrial achievements. In contrast, the United States, far across the ocean, suffered much less damage.
This war also completed the last reversal of power between Britain and the United States.
Britain declined, the United States rose, and this protracted Anglo-American struggle for hegemony also came to an end in an unexpected way.
A New Relationship: A Delicate Alliance
In fact, there are two main points for Britain and the United States to end the confrontation.
First, the United States is strong enough to crush Britain and become a real talker.
The vigorous war deprived Britain of its last strength to compete for hegemony with the United States. The United States benefited from the war and became the most prominent country in the world, firmly sitting in the hegemonic position.
Under these circumstances, the United States can only decide how to develop Anglo-American relations.
Anytime, anywhere, only the strong have the qualifications to be defined.
And now, the decline of the United States is an inevitability, and this once thriving country has inevitably gone downhill. And China's rise is also a historical inevitability. Not only that, the trend of multipolarity is constantly strengthening, and in addition to China, there are many forces that are jointly impacting the United States.
It is only a matter of time before the United States weakens its voice in the United States.
Second, Britain and the United States have more than enough common interests.
The close ties between Britain and the United States in the 19th century also laid a solid foundation for the subsequent cessation of disputes. Especially after World War II, the emergence of the Soviet Union, this new model of government, put pressure on the United States. In contrast, the United Kingdom, which clearly shares the same roots, is more reliable. Therefore, Britain and the United States decisively formed an alliance and fought for the common good.
Not only that, but the United States introduced the Marshall Plan after the war.
The revival of the European economy all depends on the Marshall Plan, and the two sides have real entanglements of interests. In this case, it is even less likely that there will be contradictions between the two countries. Killing 1,000 enemies and inflicting 800 self-losses is the truest portrayal of Anglo-American relations after the war.
In fact, this symbiotic relationship also appears between China and the United States to some extent.
The U.S. launched a trade war and a chip war against China, which failed to defeat Chinese companies, but instead caused strong protests from local U.S. companies.
This is precisely because in today's era of economic globalization, China and the United States have been closely tied up, and one trigger has affected the whole body. The United States' decoupling plan can only be reduced to a joke in the end.
With this premise, perhaps at a certain historical juncture, China and the United States can also completely end the dispute.
Today, the delicate relationship between Britain and the United States may also serve as a reference for China-US relations in the future.
Britain remains America's staunchest ally, but the rift between the two is not without rift. The unity and strength of the European Union have in turn impacted the position of the United States. Despite the UK's departure from the EU, geopolitically speaking, the UK remains a community with the whole of Europe.
This delicate relationship may not change significantly in a short period of time. However, the future of Britain and the United States is still uncertain, and there may be more tests. The same is true between China and the United States.
The only thing that is certain is that China is unwilling to take the initiative to create disputes, and has never been afraid of them.
No matter how the attitude of the United States changes, China will always have its own insistence, that is, not to strive for hegemony, not to expand, and to seek common development. This perseverance will also become a key factor affecting the future direction of China and the United States.
Bibliography:
1. Tang Chuanxing.From "The Sun Never Sets Empire" to "The City on the Top of the Mountain"——The Hegemony Transformation of Britain and the United States[J].Literature and History World,2019,0(11):84-88
2. Huang Zhengbai, Liang Jun.From Conflict to Reconciliation: An Investigation of Modern Anglo-American Relations[J].Historical Collection,2006,(No.5).