We have said the word financial war more than once, and there were still many people who did not think of it before, but recently more and more specific cases are vividly presented in front of us. Let us have a more vivid understanding.
In fact, this is the main form of the great power game now and for a period of time in the future. Finance is also a form and a means of warfare, with the aim of bringing down the other country.
For example, we used to say that in the 1997 Southeast Asian financial crisis, American capital took the opportunity to acquire most of the shares of South Korea's Samsung, and the information on the Internet showed that foreign capital accounted for 55% of Samsung's common shares, most of which were American. Especially in terms of preferred shares, foreign shares are as high as 89%, and American capital also accounts for the vast majority.
Samsung, South Korea's largest conglomerate, is actually working for Americans, and this sentence is not a joke.
Such cases are now also really happening in China, such as the news that Wanda Group, which received 60 billion capital injections last month. Led by PAG, the joint injection of 60 billion yuan into Dalian Sundameng Commercial Management Co., Ltd., with a 60% stake, while Dalian Wanda Commercial Management holds a 40% stake.
In other words, Wanda Group no longer belongs to Wang Jianlin, but to PAG.
South Korea's Samsung and Wanda Group, in fact, are the same on the surface, they are all taking advantage of your illness to kill you, South Korea is short of money, and ask the big brother of the United States for help, and the condition offered by the big brother is that South Korea will open the market to the United States, from 50% to 100% of the holdings. Then Samsung will be surnamed Mei instead of Han. Americans buy the bottom at a low price.
Wanda is also short of money, and in the past year, it has successively sold the third-party payment license of its fast money company, Wanda Plaza, Wanda Real Estate-related assets, and Wanda Film equity...... Do you think he's selling for fun?
This is to take advantage of your illness to kill you, when Wanda was delisted from the Hong Kong stock market, the market value was still more than 200 billion, and now, 60 billion will control 60%.
This is a typical low-price bottom-up, after all, Wang Jianlin once said before that Wanda Plaza can collect 100 billion yuan just for rent. Although the market is sluggish now, it is impossible to remain in a depression forever, there will always be a recovery, and it is possible that the rental income will return to the cost in a few years.
Wanda's ending is currently worse than Samsung's, the old United States invested in Samsung, just for money, the actual control is still the Li family, although the United States has obtained a lot of profits through the acquisition of Samsung shares, but Samsung has also survived the wind and waves through these American capital, and is now also a world-class large enterprise group.
Wanda, on the other hand, has lost all the actual control, even if it can turn the tables again with the help of foreign capital in the future, it will be a turnaround.
Next, let's talk about Vanke, which is also a living case of financial warfare.
First of all, let's state that this is not a defense for Vanke, as the saying goes: flies don't bite seamless eggs, and it can't be more vivid when used in Vanke's case.
In the past, when the market was good, everyone was good, even if there was an uneven distribution of spoils, after all, they could still get money, and they were all good at discussing the amount, and everything could be covered up.
Now that the market is not good, the spoils are unevenly distributed, and contradictions will come out. Thunder is also prone to bursting. First of all, this is a problem of its own, and it cannot be said that the problem depends on external factors.
There is a consensus in the economic circles that there are three major mines in the world, China Real Estate and the United States, Japanese bonds or European bonds. The explosion of any of these three mines will be painful for the countries concerned.
In the past, we could still joke and say that let's see who of these three mines explodes first. Now there is no need to ridicule, people's US stocks, Japanese bonds and European bonds are still alive and kicking, and the middle house has exploded.
What happened after it exploded? Now everyone has seen it.
You can say that the real estate itself is the root cause of the real estate problem, but no one can deny that the US dollar interest rate hike is the last straw that breaks the camel's back, and it is also the most important external contributing factor.
Since 2022, the private leading real estate companies have all exploded, so Vanke's problems are particularly different. Because Vanke is state-owned, it is not a private enterprise. That's why there is a saying that Vanke is the last fig leaf for China's real estate.
Now even Vanke has a problem, two days ago, Xiao Jin, the general manager of Vanke Jinan, was taken away by the police, and it has not been released for 48 hours, and there is a high probability that it has been cold. This last fig leaf was also ripped off.
We will not repeat this information that can be searched on the Internet, but let's analyze the advantages and disadvantages of China's financial warfare.
Judging from the facts of the past two years, the United States has used the strong dollar to stimulate potential domestic contradictions and risks, and used it to crush China's pillar industry, real estate. So far, the results have been remarkable, which has also stimulated the determination and courage of the US side to persevere.
The ultimate destination of the U.S. interest rate hike is China, which is already clear. Recently, the Fed's expectations management and market forecasts have also pushed the time of interest rate cuts to September, and there are even predictions that there will be no rate cuts this year.
At this juncture, Vanke's problems undoubtedly add fuel to the fire.
China is in an unequal position in terms of financial warfare. China can only defend, not the ability to counterattack. The United States can use a series of means such as a strong dollar, dollar debt, international rating agencies, and internal traitors to form a combination punch to attack China, while China has no similar means to fight back.
For example, with the help of S&P Moody's Fitch rating agencies to send out red flags, causing some companies to lose their credibility and encounter difficulties in financing, and then with the help of high-interest US dollars to increase the overseas debt repayment burden of these companies, coupled with the problems of these companies themselves, the expansion of the stall is too large, and it happens to encounter the overall decline of the real estate market, and the payment cannot be recovered.
The time, place, and people are all together, the sins of heaven and the sins of people are seamlessly connected, it is not strange that there is a thunderstorm, but it is strange that it is okay.
By blowing up China's real estate market, there is a chain reaction to China's entire consumer market and financial market, and the war of international financial capital led by the United States, if we do not evaluate it with emotion, can be said to have achieved remarkable results, and it has now reached the stage of harvesting spoils, such as the exit of Wanda Wang Jianlin. Wanda is a typical case of being harvested.
And these means, China does not have a world-renowned rating agency, the status of the world's currency, including the cooperation of the traitor, China is like a three-year-old child, without any ability to fight back, can only be constantly repaired internally, difficult to protect itself.
Some people may not want to listen to it, but aren't you a capitulation faction when you say this? What do you mean by belittling China so much?
I don't have to rush to state this, so that you can discuss whether it is true or not? My intention is to make you understand the difficulties of the current situation, and the reasons for this difficulties and their internal connections. It does not mean that this is the rhetoric of the capitulationists.
In fact, it is also very difficult for the United States to maintain its strength. There are remarks on the Internet that the United States is falsifying data, which is not groundless, and the surface data is very good, but it can't hide the dilemma of homeless people and zero-yuan purchases.
But the United States is still gritting its teeth and insisting, because it knows that this is the last chance, and if it does not succeed this time, it will no longer be able to contain China in the future.
China's intention to pivot in recent years is obvious, which is to shift to high-end manufacturing and domestic consumption.
After the national housing price doubled in 2016, the concept of "housing for living, not speculation" was put forward at the Central Economic Work Conference at the end of 2016, and three red lines were issued at the end of 2020, which directly blocked the financing channels for real estate.
As a result, people are not as good as heaven, and they are really killed. Originally, if there were no international factors such as the US dollar interest rate hike, we would have suppressed real estate with a heavy hand, and then gradually eliminated the status of the pillar industry of real estate, and at the same time developed high-end manufacturing and cultivated the domestic consumer market. This was a very correct strategic shift.
It's a pity that someone else seized the opportunity to short China. It is equivalent to China taking the initiative to eradicate the fence in front, and the hard battle is over, and as a result, others have picked peaches.
This is all hindsight, and then after the blow, China found out that it was too hasty, and real estate can't die now, so it began to save real estate again, and all kinds of means were used, and this is the status quo we see.
However, I would say but, one of the two paths that was originally used to replace real estate has already gone through, and that is high-end manufacturing.
To this day, whoever wants to say that China's high-end manufacturing has not succeeded is talking nonsense with an open eye.
Made in China 2025, I haven't mentioned it in the past few years, we said in the program, Made in China 2025, except for high-end chips, all other plans have been completed, and even overfulfilled in advance, and what has been done, so I won't mention it anymore.
German Industry 4.0, which is at the same time as Made in China 2025, has now become 0.4.
On the other hand, the domestic consumer market is still relatively difficult, and China is now struggling to support it in the financial war, which is essentially to build the domestic consumer market in order to gain time.
Everyone can see that once the domestic consumer market is up, coupled with high value-added manufacturing, real estate will not matter.
"Who's going to be short? Whatever! You're welcome, I don't care. ”
So now is the most anxious time, China needs real estate stall time to cultivate the domestic consumer market, and Lao Mei doesn't want to give China time, so she has to kill you now. This is the essence of the various appearances of the squinting eyes.
On the one hand, it can be seen that the dawn is emerging, not to mention anything else, just say that this year's various holiday consumption, as long as you say that you have gone out, you will naturally feel it. On the other hand, the CPI and PPI data are far from satisfactory. The road ahead is tortuous, and we can only strive to move forward.
Although it is difficult, after all, China has already crossed one leg, and the other leg is at least half possible. In other words, China has a road ahead, and it just needs to get through it.
The United States, on the other hand, is not so optimistic. There is no road ahead of it, and apart from the financial war that has blown up China, what other path do you think it can take?
Reviving manufacturing, or cutting the national debt, or willing to shrink the front and retreat to the Americas, or using AI to generate all kinds of supplies? And so on, can you think of any way out for the United States?