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The last round of domestic oil prices was adjusted on April 1, which was the seventh adjustment of domestic oil prices and the "fourth rise" of domestic oil prices in the year. According to the principle of "10 working days" adjustment of the domestic refined oil pricing mechanism, the eighth oil price adjustment window in 2024 will officially open at 24 o'clock in the evening of April 16.
After more than a week of oil price statistics, it is expected that the oil price will be raised by 200 yuan/ton, equivalent to an increase of 0.16 yuan to 0.19 yuan per liter, and it is expected that No. 92 gasoline will exceed 8.3 yuan/liter per liter. This means that domestic oil prices will be raised twice in a row in April, which may be the "fifth increase" in domestic oil prices this year, and will hit a new high in 2024. According to the calculation of the 50-liter fuel tank of the family car, after the increase in oil prices, it will cost 8-10 yuan more to fill up a tank.
Since 2024, domestic refined oil prices have undergone seven rounds of adjustments, showing a pattern of "four rises, one fall and two stranded". If the oil price is raised this time, the domestic refined oil price will show "five rises, one fall and two stranded". According to the principle of "ten working days", the next round of refined oil price adjustment will be at 24 o'clock on April 29.
-- China's refined oil production
At present, China mainly develops onshore oil and gas resources, and relatively little develops offshore resources. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from 2012 to 2021, China's crude oil production fluctuated, with annual output remaining between 1.9 and 220 million tons. In 2021, China's crude oil production was 199 million tons, an increase of 2.05% over the same period of the previous year.
From 2015 to 2018, China's refined oil output maintained a steady upward trend, and in 2019, China's refined oil output declined slightly. In 2020, the global epidemic led to a decline in demand for refined oil products, and domestic refined oil production also shrank. With the improvement of the domestic epidemic, the output of refined oil has also begun to rebound, and the output of refined oil in 2021 will be 357.382 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, of which diesel will increase by 2.7%, gasoline will increase by 17.3%, and kerosene will decrease by 2.6%.
-- China's consumption of refined oil products
From 2015 to 2019, the apparent consumption of refined oil products in mainland China increased year by year. In 2020, due to the impact of the epidemic, the apparent consumption of domestic refined oil products was 2.9 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.7%. As the epidemic gradually came under control, the demand for refined oil products also began to recover. In 2021, China's apparent consumption of refined oil products was 320 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10%. Among them, gasoline and diesel demand took the lead in recovery, and kerosene demand is still below the pre-epidemic level. With the normalization of epidemic prevention and control, China has fully resumed work and production, and refined oil consumption has generally recovered to the pre-epidemic level. The gap between supply and demand of refined oil products will continue to narrow on the basis of 2020.
The Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission predicts that oil prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term, but it is unlikely that they will continue to rise sharply. On the one hand, affected by geopolitical factors and "OPEC+" production cuts, crude oil supply is tight in the short term; On the demand side, the warmer weather has led to the growth of travel consumption. On the other hand, rising oil prices have adversely affected the fight against inflation.
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For more research and analysis of this industry, please refer to the "Market Research and Investment Forecast Analysis Report of China's Refined Oil Industry" by Qianzhan Industry Research Institute.
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