The competition in the photovoltaic industry is fierce, is there a "pure land", which can not only benefit from the explosive growth of the photovoltaic industry, but also avoid the price war?
At present, photovoltaic silver paste seems to be such a pure land, a link where the penetration rate of localization increases, battery iteration materials are just needed, and leading enterprises are starting to overcome new technologies.
What is the current degree of localization of photovoltaic silver paste?
In the early days of PV development, the global silver paste market was mainly monopolized by overseas companies such as DuPont, Heraeus, and Samsung SDI, and silver paste could only rely on overseas imports at that time.
Since 2016, mainland silver paste enterprises have gradually begun to have supply capacity, and silver paste has been gradually localized, and the localization rate has reached more than 85% in 2022, and with the acquisition of DuPont and Samsung paste business by domestic enterprises, the localization rate will be about 95% in 2023.
What is the current market size of photovoltaic silver paste?
Don't underestimate the photovoltaic silver paste, which is processed to form the metal electrodes of the battery, which is used to collect and conduct the current on the surface of the photovoltaic cell, which can directly affect the photoelectric conversion efficiency of the battery.
With the improvement of the global competitiveness of mainland photovoltaic enterprises, the growth of the absolute value of the industry scale has driven the growth of silver paste demand.
The consumption of photovoltaic silver paste in China has increased from 2,441 tons in 2019 to 4,177 tons in 2022, with an average annual compound growth rate of 19.61%, and China's photovoltaic silver paste consumption will reach 5,976 tons in 2024.
In the future, the photovoltaic silver paste industry still has the logic of continuing to rise in volume and price.
In terms of volume, the entire photovoltaic industry is developing rapidly, with about 390GW of new global PV installed capacity in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 71.8%, and the global PV new installed capacity will continue to maintain steady growth in the next decade. Such a steady growth will also make the demand for silver paste maintain a steady growth.
In terms of cells, the silver paste consumption of PERC cells is about 6-8mg/W, that of TOPCon is 10-13mg/W, and that of HJT is 16-20mg/W.
At present, the photovoltaic industry has entered the N-type iteration period, and the output of TOPCon cells is expected to surpass PERC in 2024, accounting for about 70%, and with the rapid penetration of N-type cells, the consumption of silver paste will increase highly.
From the price point of view, the processing fee of N-type silver paste is higher, the processing fee of PERC silver paste is about 450-500 yuan/kg, the processing fee of TOPCon silver paste is more than 200 yuan/kg higher than that of PERC, and the processing fee of HJT silver paste is the highest, about 800-1000 yuan/kg.
The technical difficulty of N-type battery silver paste is higher, the processing fee premium is obvious, and the silver price has soared this year, which has led to the increase in the price of silver paste.
It can be seen that the photovoltaic silver paste industry will usher in greater development space, and it is expected that the photovoltaic silver paste market space will reach 43.8 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 22%.
So, what is the market competition pattern of photovoltaic silver paste?
Judging from the current competition in the silver paste market, players such as Juhe Materials, Dike Co., Ltd., and Suzhou Good-Technetium are among the leaders in the mainland industry, and these three players have further improved the concentration of the industry with the expansion of production capacity in recent years.
In 2022, the market share of Zhengyin of Juhe Materials, Dike Co., Ltd., and Suzhou Good-Technetium will reach 41.4%, 21.7%, and 12.8% respectively, with a total market share of 76%.
Moreover, in 2023, Juhe Materials will sell a total of 2,002.96 tons of photovoltaic silver paste, with a year-on-year increase of 45.8%, becoming the first enterprise in the history of the industry to ship more than 2,000 tons of photovoltaic silver paste, and its market share ranks first in the world.
In addition, the Yibin plant production base of Juhe Materials is expected to be put into operation in the first half of this year, with a design capacity of 500 tons, according to which the company's total silver paste production capacity is expected to reach 4,100 tons in 2024.
More specifically, the competition pattern of TOPCon silver paste is more concentrated, due to the technical difficulty and complex process, there are currently no more than 10 manufacturers that can supply in batches, and the top three market shares are Dike shares, Juhe materials and Tiansheng shares.
In 2023, the global TOPCon cell shipments will exceed 120GW, corresponding to the demand for TOPCon silver paste of more than 1,700 tons, while the shipment volume of TOPCon silver paste in 2023 will be 1,008 tons, with a market share of more than 55% in the TOPCon market.
Benefiting from the rapid industrialization of TOPCon, the company's business is still in a stage of rapid development, and it is expected that the shipment of photovoltaic silver paste will reach 2,500-3,000 tons in 2024.
It is precisely because of the rapid expansion of TOPCon that the performance of Dike shares in 2023 is very bright, with an operating income of 9.603 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 154.94%, and a net profit attributable to the parent of 386 million yuan, a drama length of 2336.51%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company of Juhe Materials in 2023 will only increase by 13%.
What's even more surprising is that Dike's ROE in 2023 is as high as 37.7%, while the ROE of Poly Materials is only 10.08%.
Recently, the price of gold has soared, driving the price of silver to also rise, silver paste players said that the head is big, under the pressure of silver prices, what efforts have companies made?
At present, photovoltaic silver paste players have taken action to reduce the cost of silver paste, which can be divided into two major directions.
The first direction is to lay out the silver powder link and reduce imports.
Photovoltaic silver powder is an important part of silver paste, accounting for 95% of the cost of photovoltaic silver paste, and the quality of silver powder directly affects the resistance of electrode materials and affects the photoelectric efficiency.
The localization process of silver paste has been advancing rapidly, but silver powder is still monopolized by foreign players, resulting in a high cost of silver powder.
In the first half of 2023, the import volume of silver powder in the mainland will be 1063.7 tons, with an import value of 402.64 million US dollars, and the export volume will be 8.3 tons, with an export value of 6.702 million US dollars.
In terms of the regional share of imports, 90% came from Japan, while the United States and South Korea accounted for 8.3% and 0.9% respectively.
The importance of silver powder for photovoltaic silver paste is self-evident, and the market is highly looking forward to whether domestic companies can deploy upstream.
If domestic enterprises want to be bigger and stronger, it is imperative to enter the field of silver powder upstream, and industry leaders such as Juhe Materials and Dike have been laying out the field of silver powder.
The second direction is to change the formula of silver paste and reduce the amount of silver powder.
Copper has good electrical and thermal conductivity, and the price is low, the current solution is to use silver-clad copper products for all-silver substitution, but silver-clad copper is only suitable for HJT batteries due to high temperature and easy oxidation, and due to low cost performance, most of the current scientific research is the mainstay, and the mass production is less.
Although the silver-clad copper technology seems to reduce the demand for silver paste, it actually has little impact on the overall market size of photovoltaic silver paste.
Finally, in the process of shifting the photovoltaic industry from P-type to N-type, the silver paste industry will usher in a new round of development with broad prospects. As a leader in the industry, Dike has achieved full coverage of the main technical routes, leading product performance and strong profitability, especially the rapid volume of TOPCon silver paste, which can enable Dike to continue to grow.
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