According to the global network, on April 11, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Mao Ning answered a reporter's question at a regular press conference, and the current Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said that he was shocked by the "gentlemen's agreement" reached between former President Duterte and China, and stressed that he is actively seeking to clarify this "agreement".
Mao Ning responded that Ren'ai Jiao is part of the Nansha Islands, and China has indisputable sovereignty over the Nansha Islands, including Ren'ai Jiao and other islands and reefs. On the issue of disputes over islands and reefs in the South China Sea, China has always exercised restraint and has constantly sought channels for dialogue and consultation to manage differences.
However, in disregard of China's warnings, the Philippine Government has continued to deliver hull repair materials to the USS Sierra Madre, which is illegally "beached" at Ren'ai Jiao, in an attempt to repair and strengthen the "beached" Philippine ship, so as to achieve its goal of actually controlling Ren'ai Jiao. This move is a serious violation of the "gentlemen's agreement" reached between the Duterte government of the Philippines and China, and it is hoped that it will keep its promises, abide by the consensus, and stop provocations.
Marcos Jr
At the same time, Mao Ning also made clear the mainland's three-point position on handling the current situation at Ren'ai Jiao, that is, asking the Philippine side to immediately tow away the "beached" ship and restore the original state of Ren'ai Jiao as if it was unmanned and without facilities; if the Philippines needs to provide daily necessities and supplies to the ship's residents before the Philippines tows away the "beached" warship, the Chinese side is willing to proceed from humanitarianism, inform the Chinese side in advance, and allow the Philippine side to carry out the transportation and replenishment after on-site verification; if the Philippine side transports a large amount of building materials to the ship, the Chinese side will resolutely block it in accordance with laws and regulations.
On the 27th of last month, former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte's spokesman Roque said in an interview with Philippine media that during Duterte's administration, a "gentlemen's agreement" was reached with China, which required the Philippine government to stop sending hull repair materials to the "Sierra Madre", and the Chinese side agreed that the Philippines would send fresh water and necessary daily necessities to the warships "beached" at Ren'ai Jiao.
But that tacit understanding has now been broken by the Marcos Jr. administration. Since Marcos Jr. took office, he has gradually wanted to strengthen military ties with the United States, from the joint crackdown on "illegal fishing" between the United States and the Philippines at the beginning of Marcos Jr.'s presidency, to the resumption of four US military bases in the Philippines, to the subsequent joint military exercises in the South China Sea between the United States, Japan, Australia and the Philippines, and the United States' statement that the "US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty" applies to the "beached" warships on Ren'ai Jiao.
The broken ship that "sits" on Ren'ai Jiao
Even Roque said that under the "gentlemen's agreement" reached and actively abided by by China and the Philippines, there has been no major friction between China and the Philippines around Ren'ai Jiao, which has also become a tacit understanding between China and the Philippines. The Philippines has also promoted the rapid development of investment and trade between China and the Philippines through a breakthrough in relations with China, which has benefited the Philippines a lot and avoided the escalation of the situation in the South China Sea, which can be said to be a win-win situation.
But now, the Marcos Jr. administration believes that the United States will intervene in the South China Sea in accordance with the "U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty" in a vain attempt to blackmail the United States into seizing sovereignty over the mainland's islands and reefs in the South China Sea, but this is undoubtedly a wrong idea, because the United States is unlikely to confront China head-on for the benefit of the Philippines.
If the Marcos Jr. administration overturns the Duterte administration's "gentlemen's agreement" with China, it will have to put forward its own appropriate policy for resolving the South China Sea issue and reach an agreement with the mainland, rather than leading the entire Philippines to war.
Duterte
But unfortunately, what we have seen so far is that Marcos Jr. is unwilling to recognize and abide by the "gentlemen's agreement" on the one hand. At the same time, the Marcos Jr. administration has not been able to propose new measures to properly manage differences, and on the contrary, it has "not read back" the new plan proposed by China, and has a face that firmly cooperates with the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy and acts as a pawn of the U.S. anti-China horse.
Of course, in this regard, Marcos Jr. faces greater internal pressure. After all, Marcos Jr. has strengthened his presidential power and position in the context of provoking disputes in the South China Sea and unleashing nationalist sentiments in the Philippines, but at the same time he is also being engulfed by nationalist sentiments. On the issue of disputes over islands and reefs in the South China Sea, if Marcos Jr. shows a weak attitude, it is tantamount to overturning all his South China Sea policies since taking office, which will affect the foundation of Marcos Jr.'s governance, so there is a high probability that he will still go all the way to the dark in the future.
At present, in order to realize its illegal claims to islands and reefs in the South China Sea, the Philippines is constantly confirming the validity of the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty to the United States. Last month, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin reaffirmed in a phone call with Philippine Secretary Teodoro that the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty applies anywhere, and this month, U.S. President Joe Biden, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and others have reaffirmed the validity of the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty.
China-Philippines relations
But Marcos Jr.'s move can only be regarded as a wolf into the house. The Marcos Jr. administration abandoned Duterte's legacy and chose to introduce American power into the South China Sea, trying to fish in troubled waters in the game between the two great powers. But such a move can only offend China and put the United States in a position that is difficult to choose. On the one hand, until now, the Marcos Jr. administration has not been able to confirm whether the United States will really end up in the event of a conflict between China and the Philippines; on the other hand, the Philippines has once again reintroduced its US military forces into the South China Sea and introduced it into the Philippines, how can the Philippine government's independent foreign policy and national interests be guaranteed and maintained?
Finally, on the South China Sea issue, the Philippines is too far away from the United States and too close to China, no matter how the Philippines wants to play, it is destined to be only a bargaining chip.