After the Lakers unexpectedly reached the 2023 Western Conference Finals, James briefly considered retiring, how would the NBA's all-time scoring champion react if the Lakers were officially eliminated before the start of this year's playoffs?
One thing is for sure, if the Lakers fail to make it past the play-in tournament, the spotlight will remain on James. He has a $51.4 million player option for the 2024-25 season.
Whether James exercises this option or not may not be financially motivated, and there is not much difference between signing a three-year salary cap (about $162 million) after jumping out of his contract and executing the option and extending it to a three-year contract (about $163.7 million for a total price). If James wants to work with the Lakers for up to three years, jumping out of his contract may be a better way to make use of his influence on the team (including getting a trade veto, etc.).
James may want a change
How happy is James with the Lakers' role players or coaching staff? Multiple NBA sources revealed that after the Lakers failed to defend their championship in 2021, James put a lot of pressure on management to trade Russell Westbrook. When it became clear that the partnership was not working, he lobbied for Westbrook to leave. In other words, James played an important role in both the exchange and the exchange of Wei Shao.
Does James, who will turn 40 in eight months, still have that kind of prestige on the Lakers? Does he still want to keep his last few years with the Lakers?
There were some rumors in NBA circles that James wasn't happy with head coach Darvin Ham when the team was struggling at the start of the season. If the Lakers can't win the playoff series this year, will James try to make the team choose between him and the coach?
But all the information suggests that the Lakers are not going to give up on James, who is one of the top names in the league. The Lakers paid Kobe Bryant a salary after he injured his Achilles tendon and even when Kareem Abdul-Jabbar was 42 years old. The Lakers may have their eyes on the future after James, but that doesn't seem to be the focus at the moment.
James could push the Lakers to draft or sign his son, Bronny James, who played for a year at USC. He could also urge the team to trade Hawks point guard Trae Young (a Klutch Sports customer) instead of Donovan Mitchell. The latter could leave the Cleveland Cavaliers as soon as this offseason. James could also fight for a trade veto.
In the relationship with James, the Lakers may also have some initiative. After all, how many teams would have nearly $50 million in cap cap space to provide James with a $157.5 million cap over three seasons? The most obvious answer may be Philadelphia, but most NBA sources believe the 76ers' top target is Paul George. If George re-signs with the Clippers, then the 76ers could pick James.
These sources believe James won't be willing to relocate to the East Coast, even if Embiid chases a championship with Maxey, another Klutch Sports client. Will the 76ers draft Bronny and try to attract his father in the free agent market? An Eastern Conference executive believes that if ever team does, it must be the 76ers.
However, if the 76ers don't become a threat to sign James, the Lakers may take a tougher stance on James. This could lead to a dramatic offseason.
Expensive lineup, limited flexibility
While James' player option is $51.4 million, his cap salary as a free agent this summer is expected to be just under $50 million (based on the $141 million salary cap for the 2024-25 season).
He could help the Lakers by accepting a slightly lower salary. The Lakers will face salary challenges next season ($178.7 million for the first line and $189.5 million for the second line).
James' annual salary is expected to be between $50 million and $51.4 million, and the next big decision is Russell, who could turn down the $18.7 million player option to explore the free agent market or re-sign with the Lakers. He could try to get a bigger or longer contract than last year's two-year contract, with a player option attached. But like most free agents, Russell will likely find that few teams will be able to provide big money this summer.
Wood ($3 million), Hayes ($2.5 million) and Reddish ($2.5 million) could also decline their respective player options, but only Hayes could be worth a slight increase this season. The Lakers can also re-sign their own free agents, starting at $5.4 million for Prince, $13 million for Christie, and $4 million for Dinwiddie.
If everyone but Christie returns, the Lakers' salary will be slightly below the second-tier line, which could be a spending cap within the team. It's also assuming the Pelicans decide to accept the Lakers' 2024 first-round pick instead of delaying it until 2025.
The Lakers won't reach the hard cap, but at that level of salary, they won't have a $5.2 million mini-middle class either. However, if they don't re-sign Prince, or if other players unexpectedly choose to retire, they can get the mini-mid-range.
The Lakers' trade chips
With the Lakers' opportunities on the free agent market relatively limited, with James and Russell both under contract, a trade could be the only real way for them to bolster them.
The thick eyebrows are expected to be for the team's not for sale, but the Lakers could trade everyone else, including Reaves, Hachimura, Vanderbilt, Vincent, Schifino, Lewis, and Russell, Wood, Hayes, and Reddish if they choose to exercise the player option.
In the offseason, the Lakers can trade for a 2024 or 2025 first-round pick (depending on the Pelicans' decision) and a 2029 and 2031 first-round pick.
The Lakers seem to be hoping to get a third star, and the target could be a guard to partner Davis after James' career ends. He could be Young or Mitchell, and they could be this offseason. Also, the Lakers may want to add a defender-minded wing player who can score, but a player like the Nets' Mikal Bridges is unlikely to be on the trade roster this summer.
The coming weeks and months, including the playoffs and the draft lotto draw, will set the stage for future trades, as the trade market has yet to surface.
There is a possibility that James will leave
If James chooses to leave the Lakers after jumping out of contract, the Lakers will reduce their salary bill by $50 million, which will lower the luxury tax, and potentially fall below the salary cap (depending on Russell's choice).
If the Lakers stay above the salary cap, they will receive $12.9 million in the full midrange. If they use the money, their salary cap will be hard capped at $176.7 million. That might be enough to get a good player, but it's probably not a top player, let alone a star who can replace James.
Will the Lakers have more flexibility to reshape their roster without James, but they may not be enough to build the core of a championship-contending team.
The Lakers will have the ability to make more transfers and trades to avoid a rebuild. Overall, the Lakers are likely to try to maintain their imperfect status quo and hope that James will have better health and luck next season to play the final years for the Lakers.