The "dark thunder" of real estate is exploding one by one.
1
"Stepping on the Thunder"
"The rich died in trusts, the middle class died in financial management, and Dick Si died in P2P. ”
This phrase, which was widely circulated in the past few years, is still being fulfilled today. Relevant monitoring data shows that in the real estate sector alone, 107 trust products will default in 2023, with a total default amount of 48.642 billion yuan. Looking back, REITs defaulted more. In 2022, a total of 115 products defaulted, with a total default amount of 93.025 billion yuan, and the default scale reached 91.711 billion yuan in 2021.
The "thunder" planted by the trust is still exploding. One that has recently caused heated discussions in the market comes from Ping An Trust.
On April 10, Ping An Trust issued a statement apologizing for the distress caused to customers by the delay of a product, and said that it had filed a lawsuit against the repurchase obligor and actively promoted the disposal of the project.
This product is Ping An Trust Funing No. 615 Trust Plan, which has a maturity date of March 29 this year. However, on the same day, the relevant investors were informed that there was no cash recovery of the plan and that the trust plan was extended.
According to the China Securities Journal, the trust plan was established on September 29, 2021, raising about 770 million yuan. From the perspective of underlying assets, the trust plans to invest 70% of the equity of Xiamen Ronglu Real Estate Co., Ltd. in the form of equity, so as to indirectly invest in the "Zhenhuafu" project under the name of Xiamen Lianzhengyue Investment Co., Ltd., and the developer of the project is Zhenro Real Estate.
The reason for the postponement of the trust plan is mainly due to the poor sales of real estate projects. According to the data, as of the announcement date, Zhenhuafu has sold a total of 218 sets and received sales of 523 million yuan, with a removal rate of only 21%.
Behind this, Zhenro Real Estate has been thundering for a long time. As early as February 2022, Zhenro Real Estate announced that the company's internal resources could not solve a $200 million debt that was due in March, and the company's stock price plummeted 66% on the same day.
In other words, less than 5 months after the establishment of Funing 615, Zhenro Real Estate exploded. Moreover, when Funing No. 615 was established, it was the peak of Zhenro Real Estate's debt. At that time, the real estate industry was already thundering.
According to public information, in 2023, Ping An Trust's operating income will be 14.553 billion yuan and its net profit will be 4.255 billion yuan, which is the top in the industry.
But the pressure on Ping An Trust is also not small. According to the 21st Century Business Herald, after the Funing 615 incident, some investors reported that the Jiayuan 468 they purchased also faced an extension, and the trust plan involved the Logan Group, which had exploded.
This is just a microcosm. Previously, there was news on the Internet that 37 trust products of Ping An had defaulted, involving thousands of investors. Among them, the "Xiangyuan No. 230 Trust Plan" cannot be paid on time because the underlying assets involve insuring real estate companies.
▲ source network
These are only those that have been exposed, and how many more are under the surface?
2
fall
Behind Ping An Trust, there is a big tree.
According to public information, Ping An Trust is 99.88% owned by Ping An of China, and Ping An of China is listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (2318.HK). HK) and the Shanghai Stock Exchange (601318) as a whole.
It's good to enjoy the shade under the big tree. In the eyes of many people, Ping An Trust has the backing of Ping An of China, and it is always guaranteed.
But judging by the data, Ping An has also encountered some trouble of its own.
According to the financial report, in 2023, Ping An will achieve operating income of 913.789 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 85.665 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.83%. At the same time, the net cash flow from operating activities was 360.403 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.41%.
Looking at the details, except for the slight growth of the banking business, the other four business segments all suffered a decline. Among them, life and health insurance business decreased by 3.2%, property insurance business decreased by 11.4%, technology business decreased by 65.1%, and other business decreased by 30%.
The most tragic is Ping An's asset management business, with a loss of 20.747 billion yuan in one year. You know, this business also made a profit of 2.292 billion in the same period last year.
In the face of the huge losses in the asset management business, Ping An explained that "due to the macroeconomic environment, rising credit risks and capital market fluctuations, some assets are under pressure". It seems to be an understatement, but according to the analysis of industry insiders, the core reason is still related to real estate. Ping An Asset Management has been in the real estate field for a long time, and many of its financial subsidiaries are deeply bound to real estate projects.
There is one more data worth noting. As of the end of 2023, the number of Ping An individual life insurance sales agents in China was 347,000, a decrease of 98,000 or 22% from the end of the previous year. The trend behind this is that as the demographic dividend gradually fades, the insurance industry's past model of relying on crowds to be tactically driven is no longer sustainable.
The signal is also reflected in Ping An's share price. As of the close of trading on April 11, 2024, the share price of Ping An (601318) of China is 38.95 yuan per share, with a total market value of 709.3 billion.
This price has fallen by 55% from its previous peak. At the end of 2020, Ping An's market value once climbed to 1.7 trillion yuan, second only to ICBC and CCB. Today, Ping An's market value has evaporated by nearly 1 trillion yuan.
As early as a few years ago, there were constant calls for "please cherish Ping An of China for 80 yuan", but people saw Ping An's stock price fall to 70 yuan, 60 yuan, 50 yuan, and now it has fallen below 40 yuan. Looking at the slogan of that year, it seems to be a joke.
3
Rumination
Ping An has long been a "Big Mac".
According to the official website, Ping An's total assets have exceeded 11 trillion yuan, making it the world's largest insurance group in terms of assets. It is ranked 16th on Forbes' Global 2000 and 33rd on Fortune's Global 500. Many of its member companies are familiar to everyone.
But few people know that it was once the "invisible boss" in the real estate industry.
In 2015, several real estate bigwigs gathered. Feng Lun of Wantong from the north, Ren Zhiqiang from Huayuan, Pan Shiyi from SOHO, Song Weiping from Greentown from Zhejiang, Lin Zhong from Xuhui from Fujian, Yang Guoqiang and Yu Liang from Vanke from Guangdong, Wu Xu from Xiexin from Chongqing, and Zhang Yuliang from Shanghai Greenland. A group of bigwigs talked and laughed. And the one who brought them together was Ma Mingzhe of Ping'an.
Behind the strong appeal is Ping An's in-depth layout of leading real estate companies. According to incomplete statistics, there are at least more than 20 real estate companies involved in equity cooperation with Ping An. Behind many leading real estate companies such as Country Garden, CIFI, China Fortune, Sunac, Landsea, Greenland, China Merchants Shekou, Gemdale, Poly, China Resources, Greentown, Wharf, Xiexin and many other leading real estate companies, there is a shadow of Ping An.
In addition, according to the statistics of "Real Estate Finance", Ping An Real Estate once invested in more than 400 real estate development companies through 22 first-class subsidiaries through layers of nesting.
At its peak, if the shares of listed real estate companies it held and the real estate owned by it were added together, Ping An's real estate territory was even broader and unfathomable.
Ping An once enjoyed the dividends of real estate. According to the combing of Deep Blue Finance, in 2019 and 2020, Ping An's net investment income was 77.497 billion yuan and 124.701 billion yuan respectively, accounting for 51.87% and 87.14% of the current net profit. A large part of this comes from the income from investing in real estate.
But with the advent of the real estate downward cycle, what was once a dividend has become a drag.
According to the financial report, as of the end of 2022, the scale of Ping An's investment real estate reached 136.655 billion, while the investment real estate of Chinese Life in the same period was only 13.193 billion, which is 1/10 of Ping An.
Although Ping An is also sharply reducing real estate investment, the speed of real estate companies seems to be a little faster.
For example, in the 2021 financial report, due to the provision for the impairment of 43.2 billion yuan of Huaxia Fortune, Ping An's annual profit plummeted by nearly 30%.
There are many more similar pitfalls. If you look at the real estate companies that cooperated closely with Ping An in the past, how many are still safe now? Will the former "invisible landlords" become "wronged bosses"?
Needless to say, Ping An remains one of the strongest companies in China. But even such a giant must understand a reality -
When the train of the times knocks you down, I won't say sorry to you.