【Disk Analysis】
With the decline of the external market, the global financial market has entered a new round of adjustment, and in April, by the news of the Fed's interest rate cut extension, financial institutions began to choose funds into the safe-haven target, which also led to the differentiation of market investment direction. The A-share market has returned to around 3,000 points again, and every time it returns to this position this year, there will be a protective action of the main funds, which is an invisible bullish force, and it is also pregnant with the birth of new opportunities, which is also a new direction and new opportunities that investors must seize. At this stage, it is still dominated by the bullish market, and the pullback is a low-cost investment opportunity.
Riding a bull and a bear found that Sora is a "milestone" in the development process of artificial intelligence, which promotes the acceleration of the arrival of the AGI era, the demand for computing power will continue to explode, and we continue to be optimistic about investment opportunities in the industrial chain. In the medium term, the AI revolution continues, and the AI industry chain has been adjusting recently, forming a seesaw with high-dividend sectors. Sam and Lex Fridman pointed out in an interview that there are still a series of other products to be released before GPT-5 is launched, and OpenAI CTO also pointed out that Sora is planned to be launched in 2024, from GPT-5 to Sora, OpenAI's model progress is expected to continue to drive the popularity of the AI application sector. The demand for Sora computing power will grow exponentially, driving the demand for computing infrastructure.
The three major indexes collectively opened low, and there were less than 500 red stocks in the opening of the two cities, and the performance of Sora, knowledge payment, short drama games and other sectors was strong, and the performance of flying cars, rare earth permanent magnets, nonferrous metals and other sectors was poor. The concept of memory chips rebounded, Montage Technology rose by more than 11%, Novoray New Materials, GigaDevice and other companies rose highly, Montage Technology announced that the company expects net profit in the first quarter to increase by 9.65 times to 11.17 times year-on-year. Sora concept collective rebound, Zhewen Internet one-word limit, digital video rose more than 10%, Insai Group, Zhongguang Tianxue, etc. have followed suit, Mita AI search in March on the list of visits 7.21M, March growth rate of 551.36%, Mita AI search with its innovative technology and high-quality user experience, occupies a certain position in China's AI search market, the future is expected to break through the domestic search competition pattern, the domestic company currently launched AI search function.
The concept of nuclear pollution prevention and control has strengthened against the trend, Zhengguang shares have risen by nearly 20%, Huashengchang and Jiarong Technology have followed suit, and the reserves of nuclear contaminated water in the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant have decreased by about 19,000 tons compared with before the start of the discharge, which is equivalent to only 1% of the whole. At present, Hami - Chongqing ± 800 kV UHV DC project, Wuhan - Nanchang, Zhangbei - Shengli, Sichuan and Chongqing 1000 kV UHV AC project and 1000 kV UHV Beijing West Railway Station, Shijiazhuang Station, Tianjin Station expansion project and other 10 UHV projects are in full swing. Carbon trading and carbon emission concept stocks fluctuated and rose, and Kaier New Materials rose by nearly 20%, and Zhenghe Ecological Daily Limit supports eligible enterprises to list or refinance at home and abroad, and raise funds for the construction and operation of green and low-carbon projects.
Construction machinery concept stocks continue to be active, construction machinery limit, Liugong rose more than 5% to a new high since July 2015, for industrial machinery, agricultural machinery, construction machinery, electric bicycles and other production equipment as a whole in the low level of the industry, accelerate the elimination of backward and inefficient equipment, overdue service of old equipment. The concept of solid-state batteries bottomed out and rebounded, Fengyuan shares closed the daily limit, Dow technology approached the 20CM daily limit, and the advanced energy storage materials and technology research group of Qingdao Institute of Bioenergy and Bioprocess, Chinese Academy of Sciences made new progress in sulfide electrolyte research, solving the industry pain points and bottlenecks of sulfide all-solid-state battery tandem process. Non-ferrous metal stocks bottomed out, and Sheng shares, Shenhuo shares and other shares rose more than 5%, yesterday the London Metal Exchange (LME) industrial metal prices have hit a new high, of which London aluminum is the highest in 14 months.
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【Market Prediction】
The Shanghai Composite Index opened low and moved higher on Thursday, always in a red market shocking trend, and there were signs of main funds protecting the disk near 3,000 points. However, judging from the current disk, the upper moving average is suppressed obviously, and this position can only be regarded as a rebound market after 5 trading days of adjustment, which can only be regarded as a small-level rebound, and the real market has not stabilized. With the gradual release of the first quarterly report, institutional funds will increase position adjustment and stock swaps, which will also lead to obvious signs of adjustment in the market market. Next, pay attention to whether the Shanghai Composite Index can stabilize above 3,000 points.
The ChiNext index was mainly oscillating underwater throughout the day on Thursday, and it is worth noting that the money-making effect of the theme sector has rebounded. AI technology, construction machinery, tourism hotels have performed, which also shows that some funds began to pay attention to the second-line blue-chip opportunities, especially May Day is approaching, before the Spring Festival tourist hotels plummeted, before the Qingming Festival tourist hotels plummeted, there should always be a different "fireworks" before May Day, may not wait until the National Day?
【Gold Rush Plan】
The A-share index showed a volatile and weakening trend in April, and there is still room for further upward repair in the second quarter as a whole, which is currently a staggered period of "style", "fundamentals", and long-term mainline investment. With the continuous development of domestic policies and the tough actions of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the rebound of the index is hawkish and benign, and with the gradual recovery of economic data, the market structure has improved significantly. With the news landing, A-shares, which have withstood the test, are expected to usher in a turnaround. Pay attention to the rotation opportunities of concept stocks supported by performance and the price is still in the bottom range.
The concepts of Sora, intellectual property, and the Internet are the main participating sectors in the theme sector, while the concepts of flying cars, low-altitude economy, and chicken are the sectors with relatively large net outflows. With the release of large models such as Sora, Gemini 1.5 Pro, Genie and Claude 3, as well as the expansion of training parameters and window capacity, it will drive the continuous investment in the domestic computing power industry chain and the landing of the application side.
However, with the continuous iterative tuning of Sora and the increase in the scale of the training dataset, the demand for computing power will show exponential explosive growth in the future, and we will continue to be optimistic about the investment opportunities in upstream computing infrastructure.
Similar to the large language model, which converts text into an intelligible token, Sora converts the video into a series of patches (visual coding blocks) and reduces the dimensionality, uses the patch as a unified representation of the visual image, and predicts the original image information through noise denoising, and then generates a video. Sora also supports image format input, video expansion, video stitching, etc., which is a breakthrough technological change in the field of Wensheng video.
In the long run, the AI industry will accelerate its development, the logic will continue to strengthen, and the emergence of large models such as Kimi and Step Star will strengthen the market's confidence in the capabilities of domestic large models and products, thereby continuously enhancing the market's confidence in the AI application industry. At present, institutional holdings in the sector are still underweighted, and the development trend of the AI industry is clear and good. In addition, the prosperity of the cinema line, short drama and other industries is up, and the policy of the game sector is expected to be restored, and we continue to be optimistic about the investment opportunities in the media sector this year.