(Image source: Photo.com)
Recently, Morgan Stanley analysts raised their forecasts for Brent crude oil prices. Brent crude oil prices will reach $92 per barrel in the second quarter, while the forecast for Brent crude oil prices in the third quarter has also been revised upward to $94 per barrel.
Morgan Stanley noted that the forecast increase is mainly based on several key factors. The first is supply constraints from OPEC, which has been trying to limit crude oil production in order to maintain price stability. The second is the decline in production in Russia, one of the world's largest oil producers, which will have a significant impact on the global crude oil market. Finally, there is the rise in seasonal demand in the future, which will also increase as the global economy gradually recovers. The combination of these factors is expected to trigger supply tightness in the second and third quarters.
In particular, it is worth mentioning that the Russian oil industry occupies an important place in the national economy. JPMorgan Chase & Co. pointed out in its latest research note that global benchmark crude oil prices could push Brent oil prices to $90 in April, reach a median $90 by May, and may even approach $100 by September due to Russia's surprise decision to cut production.
Russia is one of the world's largest oil exporters
In 2020, the total revenue from global oil exports was US$661.8 billion, down 34.5% year-on-year. Oil is the world's second-largest export commodity after integrated circuits. According to data released by World's Top Exports, Russia is one of the world's largest oil exporters and ranks second in the world in terms of export volume.
Analysis of global crude oil production
According to OPEC, the Organization of the Global Petroleum Exporting Countries, overall crude oil production fluctuated less during the 2015-2019 period, reaching about 33,000 kilobarrels per day in October 2018. However, since 2020, due to multiple factors such as the outbreak of the global new crown epidemic, the macroeconomic downturn and the substitution of new energy, crude oil production has declined significantly. Crude oil production has recovered as the pandemic and the economy gradually recovers, but it is still below 29,000 kb/d as of January 2023.
From the perspective of regional structure, the top 10 countries in oil consumption in 2020 are the United States, China, India, the United Arab Emirates, Russia, Japan, etc. The United States is the largest consumer of oil resources, accounting for 19.41% of global oil consumption in 2020.
Standard Chartered forecasts that global demand for crude oil will reach an all-time high of 103.01 million b/d in May, a new record of 103.62 million b/d in June, and even higher at 104.31 million b/d in August. Standard Chartered said the tight oil market will continue to drive oil prices higher, forecasting Brent oil to average $94 a barrel in the second quarter of 2024.
Prospective Economist APP Information Group
For more research and analysis of this industry, please refer to the "Analysis Report on the Development Prospect Forecast and Investment Strategic Planning of China's Petrochemical Industry" by Qianzhan Industry Research Institute.
At the same time, the Prospective Industry Research Institute also provides solutions such as industrial big data, industrial research reports, industrial planning, park planning, industrial investment, industrial mapping, smart investment promotion system, industry status certificate, IPO consulting/fundraising and investment feasibility study, and specialized and special new small giant declaration. To quote the content of this article in any public information disclosure such as prospectus and annual report, formal authorization from Qianzhan Industry Research Institute is required.
More in-depth industry analysis is available in the [Prospective Economist APP], and you can also communicate and interact with 500+ economists/senior industry researchers. More enterprise data, enterprise information, and enterprise development are all in the [Qichamao APP], the most cost-effective and most comprehensive enterprise query platform.