After the terrorist attack on the concert hall on the outskirts of Moscow on March 22, President Macron immediately said that the branch of the "Islamic State" group suspected of terrorist attacks has also tried to commit crimes in France several times in recent months, "We suggest that Russian intelligence agencies and partners in European countries strengthen cooperation." At the request of the French side, French Defense Minister Le Cornu had a telephone conversation with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu on April 3 to exchange views on the terrorist attack.
The call was the first time since October 2022 that the French and Russian defense ministers spoke, and it was also an extremely rare call between Western countries and Russian defense ministers. At a time when Russia's ties with the West have basically been cut off, the phone call itself is extremely important and has aroused great concern from the outside world. After the phone call, the content of the talks made by the two countries was very different, which further expanded the space for speculation by the outside world. The Russian side agreed to restart dialogue on the Ukraine issue, and the two sides hope to hold a dialogue on the Ukraine crisis on the basis of the Istanbul Peace Plan. In the phone call, Defense Minister Le Cornu first strongly condemned the terrorist attack on the concert hall on the outskirts of Moscow, and then "unreservedly condemned" Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine.
French media commented that France's proposal for a phone call between the defense ministers of Russia and France on the issue of counter-terrorism coincided with the time when France was about to host the Summer Olympics and once again raised the risk of terrorist attacks to the highest alert level. Since 2005, there have been nearly 20 terrorist attacks of varying scales in France, resulting in the deaths of more than 300 people, most of them instigated by the Islamic State. The phone call between the French and Russian defense ministers and the willingness of both sides to strengthen counterterrorism cooperation do not indicate that relations between the two countries have improved. Since the signing of a bilateral security agreement between France and Ukraine, Russia's information offensive against France has been further strengthened, criticizing France for its "deep involvement in the conflict". The positions of the two countries on the terrorist attack at the concert hall on the outskirts of Moscow also show different interpretations. The press release of the French Ministry of Defense pointed out that during the one-hour phone call, Defense Minister Le Cornu only reminded that he was willing to strengthen exchanges with Russia on the fight against terrorism, and insisted that France "does not have any information that the terrorist attack is parallel to Ukraine" and demanded that the Russian side stop any act of instrumentalizing the terrorist attack. The reaction of the Russian side was: "Without Western intelligence assistance, the Kyiv regime will be powerless." Therefore, we hope that the French intelligence agencies will not be among them. ”
The Russian side's statement that it "hopes" France that it has nothing to do with the terrorist attack has made France deeply dissatisfied. On April 4, when Macron cut the ribbon at the Paris Olympic Aquatic Center, he expressed dissatisfaction with Russia's reaction after the phone call between the French and Russian defense ministers, pointing out that France took the initiative to exchange views with Russia in order to convey "useful information" about the source of the terrorist attack, "France has taken joint action with the victims of terrorism, and it is our responsibility to exchange intelligence and technology." The response of the Russian side was "strange and threatening." "It is ridiculous and meaningless for the Russian side to say that France is connected to this case, and that Ukraine is linked to this case. The manipulation of public opinion is part of the arsenal of the Russian war. "France does not accept Russia's offensive position. "Some Russian officials have said that Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States are linked to terrorist attacks, and this disinformation is related to Russia's threatening position. ”
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited France before attending the NATO meeting with President Macron and Foreign Minister Céjour, and the French media said that it was specifically to put pressure on France, demanding that France abandon the idea of including nuclear deterrence forces in the scope of European defense, and Europe still needs US nuclear protection. The U.S. Congress has been slow to pass $61 billion in aid to Ukraine, but it has tried its best to push the EU to increase military aid to Ukraine, asking allies to reduce the burden and take responsibility for the United States. The United States attaches great importance to France's position on the issue of the war in Ukraine, and once again implements a strategy of both fighting and pulling against France. Blinken's landline plane suffered another technical malfunction and had to drive 300 kilometers from Paris to Brussels to attend the meeting of foreign ministers on the 75th anniversary of the founding of NATO.
April 4 marks the 75th anniversary of NATO's official founding. According to Macron, NATO, which is in "brain death", was "electrocuted" due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, rejuvenated, and Finland and Sweden joined to make NATO even stronger. While celebrating its 75th birthday, NATO is also celebrating the 25th anniversary of the accession of Poland, Czech Republic and Hungary, and the 20th anniversary of the accession of the three Baltic countries and Slovakia, Romania, Slovenia and Bulgaria. NATO has expanded from 12 countries at the beginning to 32 countries now, and its strength has also faced many major challenges. The biggest challenge is the war in Ukraine and the possibility of Trump's return to power, which will lead to another period of turmoil in transatlantic relations. The NATO Foreign Ministers' Meeting decided to establish a five-year, 100 billion euro aid fund for Ukraine, and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg asked NATO to "guarantee long-term, credible and predictable military assistance to Ukraine." Just like the 50 billion euros in financial aid to Ukraine adopted by the European Union not long ago, it is difficult to determine how to implement it.
French military historian Guillaume Lasconjarias believes that although the war in Ukraine has regained NATO's cohesion and vitality, the obstacles that hinder NATO's advancement of political and strategic concepts have been removed, Sweden and Finland have joined NATO after nearly 70 years of neutrality, and other European countries have also shown a desire to establish a partnership with NATO. In June 2022, the NATO summit in Madrid put forward NATO's new security concept in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which completely changed the course of NATO. However, many of NATO's internal problems and major challenges have not been resolved, first, the divergent interests of the member states have always been resolved, second, NATO's financial resources have been impasseed from time to time due to serious bureaucracy, and third, some member states have often been different, such as Turkey, Poland, and Hungary. NATO celebrates its 75th birthday in a "strange atmosphere" where rejuvenation and multiple challenges coexist.
Although the United States has no intention of destroying NATO, if it absences or terminates transatlantic ties, the alliance will fall into crisis. This was the case during Trump's 2016-2020 presidency. Europe fears that Trump will withdraw from NATO's military integration mechanism when he returns to power, forcing European allies to take countermeasures. Europe and the United States have shown some form of bilateralism on the issue of military aid to Ukraine, and more than half of NATO members have spent more than 2% of GDP on their military spending. The EU's financial assistance to Ukraine in the name of a loyal ally is intended to show the United States that NATO must not be turned its back. In the current situation, the EU wants to hold the United States, and the United States wants the EU to share the burden. NATO has no intention of declaring war on Russia, and it is impossible for Ukraine to join NATO.
On the question of whether NATO will send troops to Ukraine, on March 10, Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski said at a meeting to commemorate the 25th anniversary of Poland's accession to NATO, "NATO soldiers have appeared in Ukraine. "It is not inconceivable that Western countries will send troops into Ukraine." On March 22, Rob Power, chairman of the NATO Military Committee, visited Ukraine and said in an exclusive interview that NATO is ready for a possible direct conflict with Russia. "While it may be too optimistic in 2023, it shouldn't become too pessimistic in 2024. On March 29, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned in an interview that Europe was already in the "pre-war era": "I know it sounds scary, especially for the younger generation. But we need to accept the reality that we have entered the 'pre-war era'. ”
On March 30, French Defense Minister Le Cornu said in a statement in the "Tribune" that France decided to provide Ukraine with more than 100 old armored vehicles and a batch of Aster30 anti-aircraft missiles under the framework of a new round of aid to Ukraine to enhance the mobility of the Ukrainian army on a long front. Although these armored vehicles have been in service for more than 40 years, they are still serviceable. The French army is replacing the new generation of Griffon armored vehicles. The Ukrainian army urgently called for the strengthening of air defense, and the Astor 30 anti-aircraft missiles supplied by France are similar to the American Patriot missile system. France will also provide guided missiles to Ukraine. Defense Minister Lecornu also said that weapons manufacturers will be asked to give priority to meeting Ukraine's weapons needs, speed up production, and move the production of civilian products back. France's practice of sending obsolete weapons to the battlefield in Ukraine is a striking example of EU countries using the war in Ukraine to "clear their stocks".
According to French media reports, the West has been calling on China to use its influence on Russia to play a more active role. During French Foreign Minister Céjourne's visit to China on 1 April, he hoped that China would "send a very clear message to Russia," "we firmly believe that there will be no sustained peace without negotiations with Ukraine," "there can be no security in Europe without peace on the basis of international law," and "this is the biggest challenge to us, so France is determined to maintain close dialogue with China."
Jean de Gliniasty, the former French ambassador to Russia, believes that France's tough stance on military aid to Ukraine has led to the deterioration of relations with Russia. After Russia made progress on the battlefield, Macron's stance on Russia has changed from the original "don't humiliate Russia" to radical, and even proposed not to rule out the possibility of sending ground troops to Ukraine. Russia has made strong countermeasures, and France has become a specific target of Russian criticism. "Although Franco-Russian relations are at their lowest level, the bridge has not been cut off", and the channels of dialogue are still open.
Jean de Glisniasti said that the phone call between the French and Russian defense ministers after the terrorist attack on the outskirts of Moscow was carried out under the premise of anti-terrorist cooperation. On the one hand, it shows that the diplomatic channels that have been interrupted for a long time have been reopened. Macron, as the leader of the European side in dealing with the Ukraine crisis, believes that while showing deterrence to Russia, he should negotiate with Russia from a position of strength. The Russian side agreed to make a phone call, indicating that the window for negotiations has been opened. On the other hand, France and Russia remain in the opposing camp. Russia insists that the terrorist attack was carried out by Ukraine and that it has Western support behind it. The positions of the two sides are seriously opposed, and the defense ministers of the two countries failed to issue a joint communiqué after the phone call, but instead said their own things. Russia's insistence that France may have been involved in the terrorist attack provoked a strong reaction from Macron. The French side retorted that the terrorist attack had nothing to do with Ukraine and did not want to bear the reputation of pointing fingers behind Ukraine's back. France said that it had suffered greatly from terrorist attacks and would never participate in the terrorist attacks in Russia, which was absolutely unacceptable even if it was insinuation. At the same time, France has always maintained the need to negotiate with Russia to find a solution. In addition, because Russia has taken the initiative on the battlefield, France has tried to reverse the situation on the battlefield and negotiate with Russia from a position of strength.
The French media believes that the essence of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is the conflict between Russia and NATO, the United States "retreated" and forced Europe to be on the front line, and President Macron spoke as the leader of the "hardline camp", hoping to play a leading role in future negotiations with Russia. The French and Russian defense ministers' phone call on the terrorist attack on the outskirts of Moscow and the "war of words" that followed are thought-provoking.
(The article in this column is the opinion of one family and does not represent the position of this newspaper)