Since June 2020, after the border friction between China and India, the two countries have held 21 rounds of military commander-level talks and achieved "disengagement" in some areas, but there is still a long way to go before the border issue is truly resolved. Moreover, since the friction, the relations between the two countries have always been blocked by an "invisible wall" in the course of development, which is obviously very unfavorable to the two large developing countries and the two populous countries. The Chinese side has said that the border issue is not the whole of China-India relations, and hopes that the Indian side will put it in the appropriate position of bilateral relations, work with China in the same direction, and enhance strategic mutual trust. Recently, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has also spoken out to the outside world, and his tone has softened.
According to the Observer, on April 10, in an exclusive interview with Newsweek, Modi said that for India, the relationship with China is very important and significant, and the stable and peaceful relationship between India and China is very important to the two countries, the region and the whole world. "I believe that we need to urgently resolve the protracted situation on the border through active and constructive bilateral contacts at the diplomatic and military levels, so that we can put the anomalies in our bilateral interaction behind us".
In this regard, Reuters believes that this seems to indicate that Modi's tone on bilateral issues between China and India has softened. What do you think? In this regard, we will talk about three topics.
First, on the border issue, India has actually made a lot of moves recently.
First, after the 21st round of military commander-level talks between China and India, India pledged not to escalate the border situation during the negotiations and increased its troops by 10,000 troops in the border areas. In the context of the long winter in the Sino-Indian border area, which is about to pass and the movement of people has become more convenient, this action will inevitably make people think too much. Because during the Sino-Indian confrontation, the biggest gap between the Indian army and the Chinese side was the logistics supply, and after the supply difficulties in the summer were reduced, the Indian side would make more small moves.
Second, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi suddenly went to the so-called "Arunachal Pradesh", that is, the southern Tibetan region of the mainland, to attend the unveiling ceremony of the Sera Tunnel. Obviously, this is a "declaration of sovereignty" because the tunnel is "made in India". The Indian military also said that the opening of this tunnel will help provide all-weather traffic capacity for the Tawang area and will help strengthen the level of India's military warfare. The Chinese side expresses strong dissatisfaction and resolute opposition to this and lodges solemn representations with the Indian side.
Third, Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar expressed his stance on the border issue, declaring that "although India is currently conducting some negotiations with China on the border issue, it will never make any compromise with China on the border security issue." In addition, Jaishankar also criticized India's founding Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru's China policy, slamming his statement that "India second, China first" is a position that prioritizes China over India. Jaishankar believes that it was Jawaharlal Nehru's "wrong policy" that created the territorial dispute that India is currently facing.
Although there have been many moves, the Indian authorities also know that these so-called "disputed territories" have historically belonged to China, and in the case of southern Tibet, it was the British who colonized India that dug a big hole for China and India before leaving, drawing the so-called "McMahon Line", so that the two countries could not live in peace from now on. However, even if it was known, no Indian government dared to make concessions on this issue, because the two sides fought a war on the border back then, and people died. Whoever compromises with China risks losing trust in the government.
As a result, the border issue is more often used by the Indian authorities as a distraction. Modi's speech this time may also have a mystery hidden in it.
Second, when Modi's statement was made, the United States, Japan and the Philippines were conspiring to deal with China, or did they deliberately say it to the United States?
On April 11, the leaders of the United States, Japan, and the Philippines will hold a trilateral meeting in Washington, D.C., and a new Zep agreement on the South China Sea is likely to be reached, with the aim of targeting China, of course. Just this week, the three countries held joint military exercises in the South China Sea. Two days ago, the United States and Japan have reached a consensus that the two countries will increase military cooperation and strengthen cooperation in areas such as artificial intelligence and aerospace.
Against this background, how could India, which is also a member of the "Quadrilateral Dialogue" with the United States and Japan, suddenly soften its tone toward China? One possibility is that Modi is saying this to the United States, and the Sino-Indian border issue may be being used as a tool by the "old immortals" again, because India has recently been very angry with the United States.
First, because of the assassination of the Sikh leader of the United States, the United States not only lodged a written protest to New Delhi, but also sent the documents directly to the Prime Minister's Office, which made Modi a little unable to step down. What is even more embarrassing is that after investigation, the Indian side has to admit that it was really the Indian agent who did this. The United States is trying to win over India to contain China, but it did not expect that India would go to its own house to carry out assassinations, and of course it will become very angry. In response, Modi said, "If our citizens do something good or bad, we are ready to investigate." We are committed to the rule of law".
Second, this is an election year in India, and the vote will be held at the end of this month, and Modi is seeking re-election. After the Indian government arrested opposition leader Kejriwal on suspicion of corruption a month and a half ago, U.S. and German officials have publicly reminded "the importance of the rule of law" because Modi has said "we are committed to the rule of law." Considering this a great disgrace, India immediately summoned German and American diplomats and reprimanded them with a bitter face, and also denounced Washington for "slandering" and making "totally unacceptable" remarks on India's internal affairs.
Against this background, when interviewed by the US media, Modi suddenly softened his tone towards China, or wanted to remind the United States that he still wanted India to help "contain China"? If he wanted to, he would show "sincerity" to India.
Third, and another possibility cannot be ruled out, is that Modi really hopes that China and India can resolve the border issue efficiently.
At present, China is the world's second-largest economy and India is the fifth-largest economy, and as neighbors, if there are no barriers to cooperation, the two countries will help each other and develop faster. Especially for India, China is currently the world's largest industrial manufacturing country, and India is still only a predominantly agricultural country, if you want to "realize" your demographic dividend, you must quickly industrialize, so that you have more industrial workers, in this regard, India is actually very much in need of China's help.
In addition, India's existing industrial scale is still in its infancy, and many companies will be in a state of shutdown if they cannot get the parts or key raw materials produced in China, and if they are replaced by American, Japanese or European products, the cost is too high for India to afford. Therefore, there are obstacles to cooperation between China and India, which is actually even more disadvantageous to India. Of course, Modi can see this. If the border issue between the two countries can be resolved, the biggest obstacle to cooperation will be removed, which is very attractive to India.
During his tenure, Modi visited China twice, and after the Sino-Indian border friction, Modi did not name China once, which is actually a gesture. However, Modi's own words about India do not count, especially the military, which also wants to use the border issue to get more "benefits", in this context, it may not be easy to come up with a solution in a short time.