According to TrendForce's China PV Industry Bidding Database, a total of 21.37GW of PV module tenders were announced in March 2024, up 85% month-on-month.
In Q1 2024, the bidding volume of PV modules will be about 51.5GW, and the bidding of N-type modules will account for more than 80%.
According to statistics, the bidding volume of PV modules in Q1 2024 will be about 51.5GW, showing a downward trend year-on-year, of which the bidding volume of N-type modules will reach 41.5GW, accounting for 80.62%, and the acceptance of N-type modules will increase significantly, and the demand for domestic and foreign products will switch faster than expected.
HJT modules are emerging, and the demand for lightweight and flexible modules is emerging. According to incomplete statistics, since 2023, about 3.4GW of HJT bidding projects have been identified in PV module bidding, and 2.3GW of HJT bidding volume will reach in Q1 2024, and the demand is expected to accelerate.
Chart: Monthly Bidding Capacity of Domestic Modules (MW) from 2023 to March 2024
Bifacial modules account for about 62%, and demand continues to increase
From the perspective of bidding owners, in March, a total of 10GW of photovoltaic modules under CNNC Xinhua Hydro and CNNC (Nanjing) were tendered, followed by Huadian Group's first batch of 9GW photovoltaic module centralized procurement bidding in 2024, and the bidding volume of the top 10 bidding owners in Q1 2024 accounted for 90% of the total bidding volume.
In Q1 2024, 19GW (37%) will be tendered for modules of 540W and above, 31GW (60%) for modules of 570W and above, and 1.62GW (3%) for modules above 600W.
Bifacial modules accounted for 62% of the tenders, and of the 51.5GW module tenders, 32GW (62%) were specified, of which 27% (13.8GW) were tendered.
Chart: Single-sided and double-sided scale of domestic module bidding, unit: %
The bidding price range of P-type modules has widened, and the price involution continues
In March, the bidding price of a total of 1.1GW module procurement projects of Zhongling New Energy, Shenzhen Gas and Three Gorges Corporation was opened, with bidding prices ranging from RMB 0.795/W to RMB 0.929/W and an average bidding price of RMB 0.841/W.
Chart: Bidding price trend of domestic P-type modules in Q1 2024, unit: RMB/W
The average price of TOPCon bids continued to decline month-on-month, and the leading companies had a strong willingness to raise prices
In March, a total of about 9.3GW of N-type modules were opened, with bidding prices ranging from RMB 0.839/W to RMB 1.003/W, and the average bidding price was RMB 0.887/W, down RMB 0.045/W from the average price in February, and the bid price difference with PERC continued to decline month-on-month. Among them, on March 14, the Three Gorges Group opened the bid for the 2024 photovoltaic module frame centralized procurement (first batch) project, and the price of the N-type bid section was 0.839~1.003 yuan/W, and the average price was 0.907 yuan/W. Compared with the opening price of PetroChina's 7GW module centralized procurement in February, a number of companies with sufficient orders in hand have invested high prices, and the overall quotation and average price of the N-type bid section are slightly higher than PetroChina's previous bid opening price of about 0.903 yuan/W.
Chart: Bidding price trend of N-type TOPCon modules in Q1 2024, unit: RMB/W
The price of HJT modules has dropped significantly, and the market space needs to be opened
Affected by the decline in raw material prices, the price of HJT modules has dropped by 38% from RMB 1.804/W in March 2023 to RMB 1.116/W currently. With the subsequent large-scale layout and technology optimization, there is still room for price decline.
The market space for HJT modules needs to be opened, and companies that take the lead in layout are expected to enjoy dividends. According to incomplete statistics, a total of 1.7GWHJT module projects will be opened in Q1 2023-2024, and the capacity of a single project is below GW, most of which are used for experimental projects, and the market space still needs to be further opened. At present, the production capacity of HJT modules is relatively small, the market competition environment is good, and the profit margin is relatively guaranteed.
Chart: Domestic N-type module bidding price trend in Q1 2024, unit: RMB/W
In Q1 2024, 91GW of winning bids will be announced, and 82% of first-tier enterprises will win bids
In Q1 2024, 91 GW of modules have been announced, including 33.7 GW of the first winning bidder and 57.3 GW of the first winning candidate, and 55.1 GW of JA Solar, Jinko, LONGi, and Trina have won the bid. The top 5 companies (LONGi (601012.SH), Trina Solar (688599.SH), Jinko (688223.SH), Tongwei (600438.SH), and Canadian Solar (688472.SH)) won bids with a scale of 59.8GW, accounting for 88.7%.
Tongwei, GCL and JA Solar have awarded more bids, with 2.6GW, 2.16GW and 1.56GW respectively, while LONGi, Trina and Jinko have won the majority of bids.
Figure: 2024 Q1 domestic PV module bidding and procurement winning scale, unit: MW
On the whole, the gradual start of distributed and centralized projects in March led to a steady increase in the number of tenders. In terms of prices, the bidding price range of P-type modules has widened, and the average price has continued to fall, the average opening price of TOPCon has continued to decline month-on-month, and the leading enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices.