In the past, people's thinking advocated more children and grandchildren, and families could only prosper when they had more children, and even in the planning era, many people were willing to risk being fined or even losing their jobs to have more children.
However, in recent years, the situation has undergone a major reversal, and young people do not give birth to children after giving subsidies, resulting in a continuous decline in the mainland's birth rate.
Up to now, the mainland's birth data has hit three "new lows": 9.02 million births, a new low since the founding of China, a birth rate of 6.39 per thousand, the lowest level on record, and a total fertility rate of less than 1.05, one of the lowest fertility rates in the world.
This also means that if it continues, it will be difficult to reverse the downward trend in the number of births without the introduction of effective policies to encourage births.
In the face of this situation, the state has "moved seriously" and introduced a series of measures, but it is clear that the effect of giving birth is not ideal. Let's take a look:
.01.
What will be the impact of the collapse in fertility?
Many netizens believe that in the long run, fewer people are not necessarily a bad thing. Because there are fewer people, there will be fewer carbon emissions, and the natural environment may gradually get better.
If there are fewer people, the bargaining power of our "workers" will also be improved, and there may not be a dialogue of "you don't do it, some people do it".
There are fewer people, education is not so rolly, children's childhood is happier, and old mothers are more comfortable.
There are fewer people, the city is no longer crowded, the traffic is no longer congested, and the big city can enjoy a quiet life...
Indeed, a declining population will allocate more resources and enjoy more benefits. However, this is the ideal scenario that will only occur when the population structure returns to a stable state after the population has declined.
But before that, you may have to go through a long period of pain.
The first is the issue of pension.
As the aging population intensifies, there is a gap in pensions. At that point, young people will not be able to maintain the normal retirement of the elderly, and then they may face higher tax rates, a later retirement age, lower return on investment, and possibly even a government budget crisis.
Some people say that it's a big deal to save money for the elderly, in fact, this is not impossible, but the money you save today is enough to spend tomorrow, this question is very critical.
For example, in the aging era, everyone's demand for buying a house and a car has dropped sharply, but the demand for the service industry will be higher and higher.
In other words, if you think about your parents' generation, if you heard him say that he had saved 100,000 yuan for retirement when you were young, did you think it was a huge amount of money? But now? How long do you think 100,000 yuan can last in the city?
Second, economic growth stalled
A previous report by Capital Economics said that slowing productivity growth and a shrinking labor force threaten to make it impossible for China to overtake the United States forever. Or, if China does surpass the United States, the United States will regain its top spot with the help of immigrants and continue to replenish its labor supply.
To put it bluntly, as there are fewer young people, so will there be less innovation, which is likely to drag down the economy.
One thing is certain, however, that birth rates are not the only determinants of productivity, and if they are, sub-Saharan Africa is the most dynamic economy in the world.
Furthermore, it affects the competitiveness of the country
Once the population decreases, it means that the domestic market will shrink, the demand for investment will weaken, economic problems such as changes in the industrial structure will appear, and the development of enterprises will face more difficulties.
Moreover, the population decline will also affect the competitiveness of international scientific and technological innovation and military strength, involve the core interests of the country, and affect the national security situation.
.02.
Ren Zeping proposed a "new method"
In the face of the continuous decline in the fertility rate, in recent years, the country has taken earnest, and in 2016, it fully liberalized the second child, and even took many measures to encourage childbirth.
For example, tax exemptions, increasing the loan amount of the housing provident fund, giving cash subsidies to families with many children, house purchase discounts, etc...
However, urging the second child did not have the desired effect, in this regard, Ren Zeping proposed a "new method" and won the support of the parents.
Recently, expert Ren Zeping also proposed in the article "China Fertility Report 2024" that we should start from several aspects to fully liberalize and encourage childbirth.
1. Comprehensively liberalize childbearing, so that reproductive rights can return to the family.
To put it bluntly, it is to respect the wishes of human beings to have children, and let the people decide for themselves how many children they want to have.
2. Subsidies for intergenerational care
Ren Zeping suggested increasing the supply of childcare services, vigorously increasing the enrollment rate of 0-3 years old from the current 4% to 40%, and issuing subsidies for intergenerational care. (That is to say, grandparents with grandchildren are also subsidized)
Although the current situation on the mainland is still that the elderly help to bring their grandchildren, in recent years, there have also been many news that the elderly have shown no mercy to their grandchildren.
In fact, the reason why many elderly people are like this is mainly because the economy is relatively tight, but they are helpless, so it is easier to vent negative emotions on their children.
If subsidies can be issued for intergenerational care, and the elderly with grandchildren also have income, then the elderly will not have so much pressure to provide for the elderly, and the young people can also have a lot of ease.
3. Vigorously issue birth subsidies to effectively reduce the burden on families in raising children.
Ren Zeping suggested that the national level should introduce a birth subsidy policy, which will be issued to families according to the number of children, and give families with children 1,000-6,000 yuan per month.
For example, the subsidy for one child is 1,000 yuan, the subsidy for two-child families is 3,000 yuan, and the subsidy for three-child families is 6,000 yuan.
Obviously, if this suggestion of the experts can be adopted, it will not only solve the problem in the short term, expand domestic demand, stabilize growth, and stabilize employment, and even in the long run, it will also help boost the fertility level and enhance economic and social vitality.
In short, population is not only a matter of security, but also of sustainable economic development, and to change the situation that young people are unwilling to give birth, the only way to do so is to give more support, so that young people dare to give birth and have the conditions to give birth.
To put it bluntly, only when everyone has no worries will young people be willing to give birth... You say, don't you?
*Tips*
Every word of the article was typed out by my heart, and I clicked "watching" to let me know that you are also "doing your best" for life.