A sharp rise in oil prices is imminent
Today is the fifth working day of this round of refined oil price adjustment, according to market news, it is expected that the oil price will rise by 200 yuan/ton, which is equivalent to an increase of 0.16 yuan/liter to 0.19 yuan/liter. This not only significantly exceeded the previously expected increase, but also recorded the highest increase of the year. It can be said that a sharp rise in oil prices has become inevitable.
Industry insiders said that the adjustment may be the biggest increase since the beginning of the year. This means that everyone should be ready for the upcoming increase in oil prices at 24 o'clock next Tuesday. Although today's increase is only 5 yuan/ton more than the previous times, the price is expected to reach a high of 200 yuan/ton, which is already the highest price level in this round. It can be said that the sharp rise in oil prices has officially arrived.
The factors behind it are superimposed
The reason for this round of oil price surge is not a single factor. From the perspective of the international crude oil market, the prices of U.S. crude oil and Brent crude oil have both shown a slight decline recently, but the decline is not obvious. This is mainly due to the easing of tensions between Israel and Gaza and the reduction of supply concerns.
However, experts point out that the conflict between Israel and Gaza is far from being completely resolved, and the Netanyahu government has also announced a new round of military operations, and the future situation remains uncertain. In addition, the Iran incident could also limit further declines in oil prices.
On the other hand, Mexico's state-owned energy company's plan to cut crude oil exports by at least 330,000 b/d in May has further exacerbated the supply crunch.
In general, although international oil prices have rebounded in the short term, experts believe that oil prices still have room to rise due to multiple factors such as geopolitics. Mainland oil prices are likely to continue to rise sharply.
Problems with domestic storage tanks have emerged
From the perspective of the domestic market, consumers are also unlikely to receive price concessions in the short term. According to the domestic refined oil price adjustment mechanism, it will be adjusted every 5 working days, and the next adjustment time is set at 24 o'clock on April 16.
According to the current expected increase, the prices of 92# gasoline, 95# gasoline, 98# gasoline and 0# diesel have all broken through historical highs, and the increase is staggering. Taking Beijing as an example, 92# gasoline and 95# gasoline will rise to 8.09 yuan/liter and 8.61 yuan/liter respectively, hitting a new high; 0# diesel will also exceed 7.81 yuan/liter.
Not only that, the level of refined oil inventories in some regions has also attracted attention. For example, in Xinjiang, the price of 0# diesel may reach 7.53 yuan/liter, setting a new high in the region this year. According to industry analysts, this may be related to the lack of local oil supply, and the existing storage tank capacity has been difficult to meet the demand.
This is undoubtedly bad news for the majority of consumers. In the context of sluggish economic growth and high inflation, a sharp increase in oil prices will inevitably bring additional burdens and exacerbate the cost of living for the people.
Policy control measures are yet to be introduced
Given the societal concerns that may arise from the surge in oil prices, industry experts believe that the government should take targeted measures to respond.
First of all, it is necessary to continue to pay close attention to the changes in the supply and demand pattern of oil products at home and abroad, and adjust the price adjustment mechanism of refined oil products in a timely manner to prevent large price fluctuations. At the same time, improve the reserve system, improve the emergency supply capacity, and ensure the stability of market supply.
Second, in response to the problem of tight supply in some areas, the government can take temporary price control measures, such as temporary reduction of taxes and fees, to alleviate the direct burden on enterprises and consumers. For vulnerable groups, corresponding subsidy policies can also be introduced to ensure their basic living needs.
In addition, we should also focus on the long term, speed up the adjustment of the energy structure, vigorously develop alternative energy sources such as new energy vehicles, and enhance the ability of economic operation to resist risks. Only by adhering to a multi-pronged approach can we promote high-quality economic and social development while coping with oil price fluctuations.
A surge in oil prices is on the horizon, and consumers need to be well prepared. While the government is dealing with immediate problems, it is also necessary to take a long-term view and promote energy innovation to create a more stable living environment for the people. Only in this way will we be able to withstand the sharp fluctuations in oil prices and embrace a better future.