Recently, the market has started to get a little impetuous.
Mainly many investors, in this volatile market, have incurred losses, and some losses are not small.
This has brought a new change to the atmosphere of the whole market.
Some people even said that they feel that the current market is worse than death, and it is not as happy as the January plunge.
The main reason for this situation is that the funds are gathered in the places with the least number of retail investors.
I still remember that in January, the funds chose the banks, coal, and oil, which retail investors disdained the most.
In April, the fund chose a sector that has been forgotten by retail investors for a long time, non-ferrous metals.
In the past two years, many sectors have been completely forgotten by retail investors.
Because the market reports on the screen are all to cater to the hobbies of retail investors.
From medicine and liquor in the past few years, to chips, new energy, to AI and technology, anyway, where there are many retail investors, there is high popularity.
These sectors have precipitated a large number of retail investors, retail funds, and the attention of retail investors.
Therefore, if these sectors do not rise, even if the index rises, retail investors will feel extremely uncomfortable, because they will not make money at all.
And when retail investors chase these plates, they will find that they have fallen into another pit, which is very uncomfortable.
It's like buying a bank at the end of January, only to find that it didn't move for two months, and there was even a correction in coal.
When I thought that these sectors had no chance and chose to sell again, I found that they had risen again.
There are also others who abandoned the original plate and chased into technology, only to find that they were one step late and were buried in the deep pit of technology.
It's terrible, what to buy and what to fall, it seems that all his intentions have been discovered by the main force.
Retail investors lose a lot of money, not because they have stepped on the wrong pit, but because they have stepped on the wrong pit continuously.
The little profit accumulated by this round of rebound in February is not enough for retail investors to make in March and April.
In the face of floating losses on the account, retail investors began to desperately think about how to make profits quickly, and began to find hot spots in the market again.
In fact, for retail investors, unless the reaction speed is particularly fast.
Otherwise, to find a hot spot, it is better to find a pit and squat.
If you are optimistic about science and technology, then squat in science and technology and look for opportunities in the technology track.
If you are optimistic about big consumption, then squat in big consumption and find a way to sell high and suck low.
There is some money that cannot be earned outside of cognition.
It's like there is a part of the capital that will never participate in the bank, and there are some people who just won't participate in real estate.
Obviously, there are opportunities in any industry and sector, provided that the buying point of entry is cheap enough.
And the cheap price is basically waiting for it, that is, the opportunity is waiting for it.
Some people ask, can medicine be laid out now?
It can be laid out, but there is a premise, that is, this layout will take 1-2 years, are you willing?
If you don't want to, then don't jump into this pit.
Because any industry has a cycle, and if the cycle is not reached, it will naturally not rise.
Here's an example.
Many people have realized that banks seem to be doing well in the past two years, with high dividend yields, and stock prices have risen in the past two years.
You go back and ask, in 2019-2022, the group of people who bought bank stocks.
Especially in the bull market of 2020-2021, bank stocks, especially the big four banks, are almost completely flat and do not rise at all.
Because the market is in a strong cycle, there is no need for funds to hedge, and banks with high dividends will not be considered.
When the market adjusts and some funds begin to think about defense and hedging, the four major banks will suddenly be fragrant.
This kind of cycle is not the same as the cycle of big consumption.
It's like the non-ferrous metals that have risen during this time.
The logic of many investors is to see peripheral inflation and the rise in bulk prices, and think that non-ferrous metals are OK again.
However, the real underlying investment logic of nonferrous metals actually lies in the economic cycle and the promotion of large infrastructure.
You can carefully review the rise of all non-ferrous sectors, almost all of them are in a bull market, and they have not fallen once.
Corresponds to one cycle after another of the economy.
The logic is that in all economic cycles, the infrastructure at the bottom needs to be reinforced with concrete, which is the supply and demand relationship at the bottom.
When the relationship between supply and demand has not changed, may I ask, no matter how expensive the price is, no one wants it, can listed companies make money?
The price increase in the counter-cyclical is actually a negative factor, not a positive one.
So how to find the right buying point, in fact, you need to rely on patience.
Let's go back to some industries, such as semiconductors.
Why have semiconductors been losing ground in the past two years?
Because there is a problem with supply and demand, or in other words, there is overcapacity.
On the one hand, high-end chips have been stuck in the neck, and they have not yet been overcome technically, and mass production has not been achieved.
On the other hand, low-end chips, in the pro-cycle of 2018-2021, have increased their production capacity a lot, and now they are facing destocking.
You can flip through the financial statements of relevant listed companies, and the inventory is a large backlog.
In the case that the demand in the market has not increased significantly, if you want to destock, it means to compress a certain profit margin and reduce the price.
Until the counter-cycle is completely completed, it is almost impossible for the industry to make a big improvement.
Therefore, as an investor, you can only wait patiently, wait for everything to slowly improve, and wait for a new life after the pain.
If you enter the market early, it means that you will have to face floating losses, which not only requires psychological preparation, but also the pressure caused by losses.
Here's another example.
We all know that technology is indeed a general direction of development, especially AI.
But every time I invest in AI, I don't seem to make any money, and the stock price of AI is indeed rising.
In a booming industry, you also need to be patient and look in the right direction to make investments.
In any industry, there are upstream, midstream and downstream, and opportunities often start from the upstream.
It's like that the big model of AI is actually Nvidia, because the infrastructure of AI requires computing power, and it is inseparable from computing chips and servers.
The same logic must apply.
In the next 2-3 years, we will also concentrate our efforts on the bottom layer of science and technology, based on computing power.
The arms race, these four words, are most suitable for the current development trend of the technology industry.
Correspondingly, hardware companies are definitely more valuable than software development companies.
Every time the industry fluctuates, after a round of rising trends, we must wait patiently and find a relative low point to start the layout.
In an industry where you don't have to worry about performance, finding a low point and then buying it is all about investment.
Investing is not that complicated, and the reason why many people can't do it well is because they are eager to make money immediately after buying.
Without patience, it is difficult to make a lot of money in the market.
Even if it is fast and accurate, behind a quasi-word, there is still patient research and hibernation.