When and where will the Russian army launch a new round of large-scale offensive? In an interview with "German Television One" (ARD), Lieutenant General Budanov, director of the Ukrainian Military Intelligence Agency, believes that the main direction of the Russian army's offensive will be Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region; Andriy Yermak, director of the Office of the President of Ukraine, believes that the Russian army will concentrate on attacking Kharkiv next, but the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, General Syrsky, said that trying to quickly occupy Kharkiv may bring "fatal" losses to the Russian army.
Paul Longzheimer, deputy editor-in-chief of Bild, visited the new Ukrainian line of defense being built on the outskirts of Kharkiv, the first line of defense just 10 kilometers from the Russian border, where "workers braved the attacks of the Russian army, including powerful gliding guided bombs".
Carlo Massala, a professor at the Bundeswehr University in Munich, believes in a column in the newspaper Bild that if the Russian army wants to attack Kharkov, it must first take Kramatorsk and open a passage for the attack on Kharkov, but even if the Russian army is not ready to attack Kharkov, "Putin's goal may be to bomb Kharkov and create a new Mariupol to force people to flee."
So far, we have not seen any public reports that the Russian army is preparing for an attack on Kharkiv, including a possible build-up of troops and supplies, but several media outlets, including The Economist, have reported that the Russian army has intensified its bombardment of Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city, in an attempt to turn Kharkiv into a "gray zone" unsuitable for civilian habitation.
The Economist writes that in December last year, when there was a problem with US military aid to Ukraine, the tactics of the Russian army changed significantly, and the air raid that occurred on March 27 became an important turning point: the Russian army began to launch powered gliding guided bombs with a maximum range of 90 kilometers at Kharkiv, which was far more powerful than the S-300 anti-aircraft missiles used previously, and the targets of the attack included not only power infrastructure, but also civilian facilities such as high-rise buildings, causing considerable losses.
The Times also holds a similar view, the Ukrainian army managed to drive the Russian army out of Kharkiv in the first year of the war, but now, the Russian army is trying to destroy and occupy Kharkiv," Kremlin chief propagandist Vladimir Solovyov said last week: Kharkiv must disappear from the face of the earth. "Kharkiv is strategically important, only 40 kilometers from the Russian border, and once it is captured, it will allow the Russian army to encircle the Ukrainian army in the Donbas region.
Some 526,000 people in and around Kharkiv are now classified as "internally displaced," a fifth of the population, as they have been heavily bombarded since February, using missiles, glide-guided bombs and suicide drones to attack the city, forcing the evacuation of dozens of villages in the border region.
The Ukrainian government is also aware of the serious situation that Kharkiv is now facing, and the press service of the Office of the President of Ukraine released a report saying that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky held a meeting on the current situation in Kharkiv, "the focus is on supporting the residents of Kharkiv, proposing a timetable for when the energy shortage in Kharkiv will be alleviated, the Ukrainian government is developing economic support measures for Kharkiv, and our priority is to prevent Russia from achieving its terrorist goals and supporting our people." ”
Kharkiv is working to restore power and has achieved some success, although Kharkiv Mayor Ihor Terekhov declined to give details, citing the need to avoid further attacks by Russian forces.
For now, not only Kharkiv, but the entire Ukrainian power infrastructure is being hit by the Russian army, but Kharkiv is being attacked particularly seriously, in addition to factors such as strategic location and Kremlin tactics, the most important thing is that Kharkiv lacks adequate air defense protection, unlike Kyiv, where the "Patriot" air defense system is deployed.
The Financial Times reported that the Russian army has changed its air strike strategy against Ukraine's power infrastructure, focusing no longer on Kyiv, which has received strong air defense protection, but on those areas that lack air defense protection, this strategy has shown its power, and some of the power plants that were attacked are likely to be unrepairable until next winter, "The damage caused by Moscow, although not as extensive as before, is more severe than in the winter of 2022, and Moscow's goal is obviously to cause permanent, irreparable damage." ”
In a series of large-scale "long-range precision strikes" in late March, the Russian army hit seven thermal power stations and two hydroelectric power stations, including the Dnieper hydropower station, and the Ukrainian government admitted that the repair of power stations such as the Dnieper hydropower station would take a long time because many important equipment could not be found on the market and needed to be remanufactured.
However, the situation is not as bad as many people think, most of the damage caused by Russian missiles and suicide drones can still be repaired quickly, and supporters have provided Ukraine with a lot of help, providing a lot of vital equipment and sending engineers. Ukrainian Energy Minister Herman Galushchenko said that the Lithuanian Ministry of Energy decided to dismantle the country's closed thermal power plants to provide spare parts support for Ukraine to repair damaged thermal power plants.
We note that when it comes to helping Ukraine repair its infrastructure, including power plants and substations, not only the West, but also many neutral countries and international organizations have helped. We did not see similar reports when Russia tried to repair oil refineries that had been attacked by Ukrainian suicide drones, and perhaps some countries also helped Russia, but did not make it public, or did not dare to do so.