Last week, domestic urea prices fell first and then rose. In the early part of the week, the price of urea plants continued to fall, and the mainstream ex-factory transaction price in the north fell to about 1950 yuan (ton price, the same below), and the transaction price in a few regions was lower; in the later part of the week, with the improvement of the transaction, the price of urea plants began to rebound, and the price in many places in the north rose to about 2000 yuan, and the market demand situation gradually improved. Among them, the market demand for large granular urea in Northeast China has increased significantly, which has also significantly pushed up the price in Shanxi and other places. At present, the ex-factory price of urea in the north is 1990~2010 yuan. The low-end price of Shanxi urea plant is 1930 yuan, the ex-factory price of Xinjiang urea factory in Xinjiang is reduced to 2000~2150 yuan, the ex-factory price of small and medium-sized granular urea in Jiangsu and Anhui is 2040~2100 yuan, and the market price of urea in Guangxi and Guangxi is 2200~2250 yuan. The wholesale price range of the domestic urea market is 2050~2250 yuan.
On the supply side, the average daily output of domestic urea plants was about 186,000 tons last week, an increase of 1,000 tons from the previous week, and the average operating rate was about 78.6%. In the same period in 2023, the average daily output of urea in China will be about 172,000 tons, an increase of about 14,000 tons last week compared with last year. On April 7, the daily output of domestic urea was about 182,000 tons, and the operating rate was about 76.9%.
On the demand side, last week, domestic agricultural urea fertilizer was basically in the off-season, and a small number of areas still had fertilizer in the spring sweeping period. As the price of urea plants continues to decline, a small number of agricultural dealers have a little fertilizer preparation at a low price, but because it is still early to use fertilizer in the next season, most dealers are still cautious in preparing fertilizer. The next peak season for agricultural fertilizer in China is corn topdressing from mid-June to the end of July, and before that, there will be regional demand for rice fertilizer in the south. The domestic industrial urea market is dominated by rigid demand procurement, and the demand for large-particle urea from compound fertilizer factories in Northeast China and other places has increased significantly, thus supporting the regional market. The market demand for other industrial urea is stable, and the downstream is slightly stocked at a low price. In the international market, India's RCF urea import bid purchase was finally confirmed to be 724,000 tons, mainly from Russia and the Middle East. After the printing of the standard, the international urea price is still on a downward trend, except for the Indian demand, the other market demand situation is still weak. Last week, inventories at domestic urea plants fell slightly. According to the data, the inventory of domestic urea factories was about 748,000 tons, a decrease of about 2% from the previous week and a year-on-year increase of 3.9%. The urea market inventory in the two regions was 180,000 tons, compared with 90,000~100,000 tons in the same period last year. On the whole, the demand in the Northeast and other markets has brought a round of phased benefits to the domestic urea market, but the follow-up receipt is not strong. Once the production of high-nitrogen fertilizer is started, it will continue to push up the domestic urea market; It is also necessary to focus on the adjustment of urea export policy, once the export is liberalized, it will enhance the confidence of the domestic urea market in the short term, but in the medium and long term, it will not be conducive to the international urea market trend. (Image data source: Anyunsi)
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Please indicate in the following format for reprinting: Source: Agricultural Resources Herald Author: Zhang Lingli Jin Xiuxiu Editor: Chen Ran Review: Chen Guoxing Producer: Wu Junsheng