At the beginning of the new year, a message suddenly spread in the energy storage circle: the central state-owned power group represented by the five large and six small enterprises will completely abandon the lithium battery energy storage project because the yield is too low. In particular, it is rumored that Huaneng Group has even stopped the project that has already been met.
Subsequently, a new version came out of the message:
Today's market rumors that the five major and six small companies have all given up lithium battery energy storage projects, and we understand that this is not true.
State Power Investment Corporation: There is no relevant document to stop the project, and all investment plans such as wind power, photovoltaic energy storage, and hydrogen energy in 2024 will be ranked according to the rate of return, instead of the previous investment as long as it meets the IRR requirement of 7%-7.5%.
Three Gorges: At present, the mandatory requirements for new energy distribution and storage have not been reduced, and the requirements for distribution and storage still need to be met.
Huaneng: It is more cautious about energy storage projects, and independent projects are basically not approved, and those with construction will be approved.
Although the new message justifies the previous "one-size-fits-all" message in a sense, it can also be seen that the low yield of independent energy storage projects has begun to make owners feel worried.
In other words, in addition to the mandatory new energy distribution and storage, other forms of energy storage may face severe tests.
But will the new energy distribution and storage be safe and sound?
In 2017, Qinghai Province "required wind power projects included in the planning year to be developed according to 10% of the scale of supporting the construction of power storage devices", which opened the prelude to new energy distribution and storage.
It was not until 2020 that the mandatory supporting energy storage facilities for new energy projects began to gradually become popular. Due to China's rapid growth of new energy power generation capacity, the energy storage market has begun to be extremely hot.
Although the mandatory distribution and storage has allowed energy storage to take a ride on the development of new energy to achieve a leap in scale, these configured energy storage cannot actually play a role and accept grid dispatch. It becomes a substantial cost of new energy construction, but cannot bring benefits.
"New energy distribution and storage is already in a very embarrassing situation, and even a waste. Some people related to power generation companies commented.
Distribution and storage status
In November 2022, the China Electricity Council released the "Investigation Report on the Operation of New Energy Distribution and Energy Storage". The report analyzes the actual operation of the allotment project.
Among them, the actual operation effect of electrochemical energy storage projects is poor, and the average equivalent utilization coefficient is only 12.2%. The utilization coefficient of new energy distribution and storage is only 6.1%, that of thermal power plants is 15.3%, that of grid-side energy storage is 14.8%, and that of users is 28.3%.
Among the actual installed capacity, the scale of energy storage on the power supply side is the largest, accounting for 49.7%, 27.4% and 22.9% of the installed capacity of energy storage on the power supply side, user side and grid side, respectively. A considerable part of the energy storage on the power supply side is new energy distribution and storage.
The scale of new energy distribution and storage is large, but the utilization efficiency is even lower. The actual situation has not improved in 2023 and even in 2024.
"From what we have learned, the annual utilization rate of new energy distribution and storage projects within Huaneng Group is less than 7%. A Huaneng insider told the "Energy" magazine reporter, "Such a large-scale distribution and storage, so much cost, in the end have become a pile of bricks." ”
Shandong Province is not only a major new energy province, but also a province with rapid reform of the electricity spot market. Its independent energy storage projects can make relatively more market-oriented benefits. "But for new energy distribution and storage, there is basically very little calling. And there is no charge for allocation and storage calls. Shandong power market experts said, "The revenue model of distribution and storage is still very lacking." ”
However, if you want to build a distribution and storage project, the cost is not small.
Based on the quotation of energy storage EPC and system in 2023, the lowest EPC price of 2-hour energy storage and 4-hour energy storage has reached the level of 1 yuan/Wh, and the quotation of 2-hour and 4-hour energy storage systems has also reached the level of less than 1 yuan/Wh.
| Distribution and storage costs of 100MW photovoltaic power stations of different scales (unit: yuan) | |||
| 10% | 20% | 30% | |
| 2 hours | 20 million | 40 million | 60 million |
| 4 hours | 40 million | 80 million | 1200000 |
Even if the price is calculated at 1 yuan/wh, the cost of distribution and storage in the investment of new energy power stations is still high, basically around 10% to 30%. And this part of the investment can be said to be a completely additional cost for the owner, which does not bring any benefits.
"If the distribution and storage helps the consumption of new energy, then the owner's investment still makes sense. But the actual situation now is that after investing in a bunch of energy storage, the problem of not being able to absorb it is still not solved. ”
Not long ago, Caixin Media reported that Qinghai, a major new energy province, is facing a shortage of electricity almost most of the time, except for the summer wet season. However, a series of energy storage that has been launched not only brings a cost burden to power generation enterprises, but also makes it difficult to meet the demand for large-scale energy storage in the power system.
How to actively allocate and store?
The core reason for the embarrassment of the current situation of distribution and storage is that energy storage cannot be used to bring benefits. To solve this problem and let the owners take the initiative to allocate and store, our topic should return to the electricity marketization and new energy market transactions.
As mentioned above, Shandong Province is a large province of new energy + a large province of electricity marketization, so what is the result of Shandong's new energy after entering the market?
In 2022, the average settlement price of PV electricity participating in medium and long-term transactions in the Shandong market will be 242.74 yuan/MWh, while the average settlement price of PV without participating in medium and long-term transactions will be as high as 355.27 yuan/MWh.
| Power generation transactions in Shandong Province in the first quarter of 2023 | ||||
| Power supply type | Internet power | Contract power | Settlement average price | |
| Participate in medium and long-term new energy | Wind power | 7.24 | 7.99 | 339.83 |
| photovoltaic | - | |||
| Not involved in medium and long-term new energy | Wind power | 112.66 | 101.35 | 353.85 |
| photovoltaic | 30.56 | 27.51 | 349.91 | |
| Unit: 100 million kWh, yuan/MWh |
Obviously, the new energy income after entering the market has declined significantly, so new energy enterprises in Shandong Province are more inclined not to enter the market.
"Whether it is Shandong, Shanxi, or other provinces that have practiced spot, the actual situation is that the spot settlement price of new energy stations is lower than the price without spot. An expert familiar with the spot electricity told the "Energy" magazine reporter, "This is an objective factor of the law of the market." ”
The reasons for this outcome are manifold. First of all, the medium and long-term power generation curves signed by new energy stations are almost inconsistent with the actual power generation curves. Once there is a big difference, then the new energy station must purchase electricity in the spot market to fulfill the contract. Often, the power generation time and output of new energy stations in a region are almost the same. Therefore, the purchase of electricity at new energy stations is during the high-price period.
"In addition, the power generation curve of new energy in the day-ahead market and the real-time market is unlikely to be consistent. Although the technology level has advanced now, the new energy forecast can be very accurate. However, as long as there is a large error, it may bring a lot of losses to the new energy station. The above-mentioned expert said, "Finally, we must also admit that the current new energy power generation, especially photovoltaic power generation, is concentrated in a time period." Even if there is no problem with negative electricity prices, PV can only get a lower spot price. ”
Without considering the additional green income of new energy power generation, if we want to increase the income of new energy power generation in the future market, it is necessary to make new energy have a certain degree of independent adjustment ability. And we all know that the characteristics of new energy power generation are volatility, randomness, and unpredictability. Allocation is clearly a viable option.
"Under the conditions of the spot market, the distribution and storage of new energy is advantageous. A person from a power generation company said, "First of all, the power generation curve of new energy can be optimized, so that new energy stations can participate in the market at a more appropriate time period and obtain higher spot electricity prices." Further, the new energy station also has the ability to control the deviation of the medium and long-term, day-ahead and real-time power generation curves. Even if there is a certain deviation in the forecast, energy storage can correct the curve to at least reduce the loss. ”
After this series of efforts, the final result is an increase in the settlement price of new energy, which allows distribution and storage to obtain real benefits.
And this is just one of the ways that distribution and storage can obtain income under market-oriented conditions. At present, domestic independent energy storage can already participate in the relevant ancillary service market and obtain benefits. However, there is no corresponding mechanism for distribution and storage. "Technically, there is no absolute difference between distribution and storage and independent energy storage. If the distribution and storage is opened to participate in the ancillary service market, carry out market-oriented competition, accept scheduling, and enjoy the benefits, then the construction of distribution and storage may be able to get rid of the mandatory framework and become the active choice of new energy owners. ”
Article source: Energy New Media