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On April 8, some terminal dealers rumored that the current transaction price of Feitian Moutai (loose bottle) was 2,580 yuan, falling below 2,600 yuan per bottle. The market believes that the fluctuation in the price of Feitian Moutai is related to the 200,000 bottles of 375ml Xunfeng Liquor (belonging to the Moutai category). Regarding the price fluctuation of Feitian Moutai, Kweichow Moutai responded that the planned volume of Xunfeng Liquor accounts for a small proportion of the annual volume of Moutai, which will not have an impact on the existing price system of Moutai, and the current sales of Moutai are good.
Xiao Zhuqing, an analyst of China's liquor industry and chairman of Wuhan Jingkui Technology Co., Ltd., believes that the lack of social purchasing power is a common problem faced by China's liquor industry. He believes that after the traditional Spring Festival peak season, it is the traditional off-season of the liquor industry, and it is normal for demand to decrease. In the long run, the market price is determined by supply and demand, and Kweichow Moutai will be in short supply for a long time due to limited production capacity.
Zeng Yu, the founder of Zeng Pintang and the "first person to collect old liquor", believes that the current Moutai has no collection value. He explained, "The price of collecting Moutai now is 2,700 yuan and 2,600 yuan, and this year is 2024, and the price of Moutai in 2014 (compared with now) is only 500 yuan higher", "It has only risen by 500 yuan in ten years, and there is no cost performance", "If you keep money in the bank, you will earn more than Moutai". In addition, he also reminded that "collecting Moutai also has to bear the risk of falling from 2,600 yuan and 2,700 yuan to 2,000 yuan."
The reason why Zeng Yu gave the above judgment is that he said: "Moutai has opened so many treasure houses, (the function) is to hold back the dam", "The water in the dammed lake is getting higher and higher, and we all know what the opening rate of Moutai is - it is definitely less than half, the social inventory is so large, and it is necessary to increase production capacity, and now you are still asked to store Moutai, all of them have bad intentions."
Looking back at the development of the mainland liquor industry from the "Moutai price changes":
——At present, there are 12 major flavor types of liquor
In 1989, the 5th and last National Wine Appraisal held in Hefei evaluated a total of 17 kinds of famous liquors, including Moutai, Fenjiu, Wuliangye, Yanghe Daqu, Jiannanchun, Gujing Gongjiu, Dong Liquor, Xifeng Liquor, Luzhou Laojiao Tequ, Quanxing Daqu Liquor, Shuanggou Daqu, Special Yellow Crane Tower Liquor, Lang Liquor, Wuling Liquor, Baofeng Liquor, Songhe Grain Liquor, and Tuopai Qujiu. At the same time, in the past ten years, with the gradual deepening of the research on liquor, the aroma matrix of baijiu has gradually improved, from the original four major flavor types gradually expanded to include light fragrance, strong fragrance, sauce flavor, rice flavor, phoenix fragrance, medicinal flavor, soy flavor, sesame flavor, special fragrance, old white dry flavor, combined fragrance, and rich tulip type, a total of 12 flavor types.
-- Sales of liquor
From 2016 to 2019, the sales volume of mainland liquor (65 degrees, commodity volume) showed a fluctuating downward trend, reaching 13,057,100 kiloliters in 2016, the peak in the past five years; In 2019, sales fell to 7,555,300 kiloliters, down 11.6% year-on-year. It can be seen that under the influence of the policy environment such as the "prohibition of alcohol", the market demand of the mainland liquor industry has decreased. Taking into account factors such as the epidemic situation and the price increase of liquor, the sales volume of the mainland liquor industry in 2022 will be about 6,215,800 kiloliters.
——Moutai tops the list of Chinese liquor brands
According to the information released by China Brand Network, as of the end of 2022, Moutai topped the list of Chinese liquor brands, and the top ten Chinese liquor brands also include Wuliangye, Guojiao 1573, Yanghe Yanghe, Fenjiu, Jiannanchun, Langjiu, Guizhou Xijiu, Jiadaye Dajiu and Shuijingfang.
According to the report and analysis of the Prospective Industry Research Institute, according to the "Guiding Opinions on the Development of China's Liquor Industry in the 14th Five-Year Plan", in terms of industrial economic goals, it is expected that in 2025, the sales revenue of enterprises above designated size in the liquor industry will reach 950 billion yuan, an increase of 62.8% over the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan", and an average annual increase of 10.2%. According to the average annual compound growth rate, the sales revenue of enterprises above designated size in the liquor industry will reach 1,271.4 billion yuan in 2028.
Zhu Danpeng, an analyst of China's food industry, said that behind the revival of famous liquor is the inheritance effect of liquor culture is further amplified, and the dividends of the entire Chinese liquor head enterprises continue to be released. Chinese liquor is entering the historical node of multi-brand, multi-category, multi-scene, multi-channel and multi-consumer group. The revival of famous liquor will be the direction and trend of the future development of Chinese liquor.
Prospective Economist APP Information Group
For more research and analysis of this industry, please refer to the "Analysis Report on Market Demand and Investment Strategic Planning of China's Liquor Industry" by Qianzhan Industry Research Institute.
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