Every special commentator Chen Duan Ye Chensang
Edited by Xu Xiaoxiao
At present, with the transformation of the global economy from an industrial economy to a digital and intelligent economy, especially in the context of sustainable development, the development of new quality productivity has become a key driving force for economic growth. The breakthrough and application of digital intelligence technology promotes the transformation of productivity in terms of quality, efficiency and power by promoting the networked connectivity and integrated collaboration of resources. At the same time, the development of new quality productivity is also closely related to the evolution of business models, management systems and social operating mechanisms.
The key question is how digital intelligence technology can promote the rebalancing of new supply and new demand, and how to form a broader innovation synergy and promote the development of new quality productivity through the innovation diffusion transmission mechanism. In this regard, enterprises need to accurately position new value anchors and achieve a balance between the supply side and the demand side to meet the growing demand for emotional and social consumer experiences.
The internal mechanism of the evolution of new quality productivity
The concept of new qualitative productivity reflects the endogenous trend of social productivity after it reaches a certain stage.
From a global perspective, the industrial economy based on traditional energy and resource consumption has gradually weakened the momentum for economic and social development, driven by scientific and technological innovation, supported by data elements, and driven by scenario updates, new consumption and services have gradually replaced investment and exports as the main driving force for economic growth, and economic growth has shifted from the one-way chain model of "resource-product-waste" to the deep cycle model of "resource-product-waste-renewable resources-renewable products", and sustainable development has become a consensus.
From the perspective of historical materialism, the evolution of the development of the productive forces of human society has always changed from low to high and from backward to advanced. The "productivity" in the new quality productivity is the productivity driven by "high-tech innovation", and the importance of digital intelligence-intensive capital in the field of global competition is constantly highlighted: intelligent robots are gradually replacing traditional mental labor, and will continue to complete the "large-scale replacement" of traditional manual labor robots, smart grids, smart roads and other intelligent infrastructure to replace traditional infrastructure, intelligent building materials to replace traditional building materials, intellectual capital to replace traditional capital, intelligent computers, Intelligent robots replace computers, robots, etc. in the traditional sense.
At present, the global economy has shown a new trend of evolution from "agricultural economy→ industrial economy→ service economy→ information economy→ digital intelligence economy". As far as the fundamental change in the mode of production is concerned, the new quality productive forces are advancing and unfolding with the wave of the three industrial revolutions. In the first industrial revolution, "machines" successively replaced hand tools, thus promoting the large-scale concentration of capital and the formation of economies of scale; in the second industrial revolution, the production methods of standardization, automation and assembly lines greatly saved production costs and rapidly expanded the scale of production. The Third Industrial Revolution is embodied in the integration of Internet technology and renewable energy technology, and promotes the gradual formation and development of the third industrial revolution on a global scale. It is manifested in the digital intelligence, networking, and greening of the manufacturing industry, on the basis of which the production mode will be transformed from mass production to personalized customized production and decentralized local production, and the production mode of large-scale assembly line will gradually withdraw from the historical stage. From the perspective of the industrial revolution, "information productivity" is a form of productivity evolved on the basis of mechanized productivity, electrification productivity and automated productivity, and in the second half of the third industrial revolution, the degree of development of productivity depends on the development level of "digital intelligence" and its "digital intelligence technology".
Information technology is regarded as the foundation of digital intelligence technology, and digital intelligence technology is a higher-level, higher-level, and more advanced form of productivity that has emerged on the basis of information technology. Digital intelligence technology enables the resources originally scattered in various fields and scenarios to achieve networked connectivity and integrated collaboration, and drives the transformation and improvement of productivity at the quality, efficiency, and power levels with the help of the boundary expansion of the resource system and the refinement of the social division of labor. In general, the new quality productivity is not only the fundamental achievement of the cross-integration and breakthrough of scientific and technological innovation, but also the trend result of the evolution of the business model, management system and social operation mechanism associated with the scientific and technological revolution.
On February 6, 2024, OpenAI publicly released the Wensheng video model Sora, which serves as a "real-world physics simulator", following the launch of ChatGPT in 2023 It can surpass the existing image data combined with the principles of realistic physics to create a video of up to 60 seconds, which contains highly detailed scenes, complex camera movements, and multiple characters with vibrant emotions, which means that there is a new breakthrough in the field of AIGC, and the combination between it and various industrial scenarios also has a new imagination. Since the opening of the A-share market in the Year of the Dragon, Sora concept stocks have risen sharply for many consecutive trading days, and many shares have achieved a daily limit. OpenAI CEO Altman did not stop there, but took advantage of the traffic effect brought by Sora to announce the launch of an AI chip plan with a total investment of 7 trillion US dollars, which is equivalent to the total market value of Nvidia, Intel, Microsoft, and Google combined in the same period.
Does the emergence of SORA mean that the innovation singularity in the field of artificial intelligence has arrived? Why does OPEN AI, which takes AI software development as the main line, make a big deal in the chip industry? The author believes that SORA, as a landmark breakthrough event in the field of AIGC, has its own value, but in terms of innovation level, it is not yet a revolutionary historical point. The engine forces driving the next round of systemic change mainly come from three aspects: the first is the complex and diverse forms of structured data, semi-structured data and unstructured data, which are abstracted from many superficial things as key production factors, and their role in improving total factor productivity as new production factors is highly valued; The third is the energy revolution and the computing power revolution, with the current expansion rate of silicon-based civilization, if there is no corresponding energy revolution support within the society, the future may be exacerbated by the tension of the basic strategic resources of the new application scenario energy of large-scale growth.
Promoting a new round of leapfrogging development of social productive forces has become the key to the game of great powers
The integration and innovation of new technologies such as mobile Internet, artificial intelligence, cloud computing, big data, and IoT continue to evolve, and a new round of leapfrog development of social productivity has prompted China and the United States to accelerate their layout based on the great power game and a new round of national competitiveness, but there are stark differences in specific paths and strategies.
With the support of the new national system, China has created a synergy of innovation. China's 2023 Central Economic Work Conference emphasized that "disruptive technologies and cutting-edge technologies will give birth to new industries, new models, new kinetic energy, and develop new qualitative productivity", and called for "opening up new tracks for future industries such as quantum and life sciences", especially pointing out that "forward-looking layout of future industries is a must to reshape the new advantages of international competition, to build a new engine of economic growth, to cultivate new pillars of the industrial system, and to develop new qualitative productivity".
On October 24, 2023, the National Data Bureau was officially established, and on December 31, 2023, 17 departments, including the National Data Bureau, jointly issued the Three-Year Action Plan for the × of Data Elements (2024-2026), aiming to give full play to the multiplier effect of data elements and empower economic and social development. The Action Plan points out that the implementation of the "data element ×" action is to give full play to the multiple advantages of the mainland's super-large-scale market, massive data resources, and rich application scenarios, promote the coordination of data elements with labor, capital and other elements, and lead the flow of technology, capital, talent, and materials with data flow, so as to improve total factor productivity.
The spirit of the policy on digital and intelligent transformation and upgrading at the ministerial level has also been quickly responded to at the level of enterprise operators. The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council emphasized in the "AI Empowerment Industry Renewal" Central Enterprise Artificial Intelligence Special Promotion Meeting that the central enterprises should put the development of artificial intelligence in the overall work of the overall plan, further promote industrial renewal, and accelerate the layout and development of the intelligent industry. It is necessary to consolidate the basic foundation for development, accelerate the construction of a number of intelligent computing centers, better play the role of cross-central enterprise collaborative innovation platforms, carry out AI+ special actions, strengthen demand traction, accelerate the empowerment of key industries, build a number of industrial multi-modal high-quality data sets, and create a large model from infrastructure, algorithm tools, intelligent platforms to solutions to empower the industrial ecology.
Almost at the same time, the United States, far across the ocean, has also started a new round of technology-driven industrial revolution, but unlike China's new national system to support innovation, the United States is clearly reflected in the construction of an innovation ecosystem of leading technology enterprises supported by the capital market. With the rapid development of artificial intelligence technology, the market value of Nvidia, whose main business is chips, has skyrocketed, and its revenue and net profit in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024 have hit record highs.
Digital intelligence drives the rebalancing of new supply and demand at new anchors
The "14th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the Digital Economy" proposes to take the deep integration of digital technology and the real economy as the main line, promote digital industrialization and industrial digitization, empower the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, and cultivate new industries, new formats and new models. Digital intelligence technology can create new scenarios, promote new demand, and superimpose the "fusion agent" role of data elements, which can promote the cross-border integration of existing business formats and digital business formats, derive and superimpose new links, new chains, and new activity forms, drive business model and industrial format innovation, and form a rebalance on the new anchor point.
From the demand side, the new scenario-driven consumption has changed the single consumption model of the past with products as the main body and the use function as the main body. The interest and preference of the new generation of consumers may be to present new characteristics according to the needs of the scene anytime and anywhere and generate empathy effect through community sharing, and their consumer loyalty to a single brand and a single product is constantly decreasing.
From the perspective of the supply side, in the future, it will upgrade from providing fixed products to solve consumers' pain points in a certain scenario to dynamically tracking consumers' pain points and needs in different scenarios through cloud empowerment and data platform support, and linking multiple partners to provide sustainable solutions. The scene is no longer a fixed and physical spatial concept, but a "scene flow" that deeply integrates online and offline after the introduction of the time dimension, and different scenes can be superimposed and resonated through digital and intelligent links, deriving new demand forms and new supply models that are different from a single scene. The technological revolution, application innovation revolution and business innovation revolution are superimposed and resonant, and the digital and intelligent link is used to promote the effective collaboration between the consumer Internet and the industrial Internet, the accurate real-time docking of new supply and new demand, and the flow of materials, capital and talents with data flow, so as to cultivate a new business ecology in the era of digital intelligence.
Meeting new needs means going beyond the current consumption form, based on technical possibilities, gaining insight into the deep psychological motivations behind users' consumption behaviors, excavating demand extension points, based on the inclusive sharing of digital technology, and gathering the consumption time and consumption minds of the majority of niche consumers on a large scale under the premise of low monetary costs, so as to create a diversion and product promotion platform for other products, realize cross-drainage, and create a new resonant consumption model.
Optimizing new supply means fully exploring China's accumulated advantages in the fields of new infrastructure, modern warehousing and logistics, online payment and live e-commerce diversion platforms, amplifying the role of digital intelligence technology in improving supply chain efficiency, and replacing labor with artificial intelligence to reduce production costs and circulation costs. At the same time, in the face of the wave of unemployment that may be caused by AI replacing labor, it is necessary to vigorously develop the modern service industry, and drive the emergence of more new jobs with the innovation of the modern service industry format of human-machine collaboration. Because on the scenario side, the value of people as service terminals is always irreplaceable by intelligent customer service.
The value anchor between new demand and new supply has shifted from a simple functional cost performance ratio to a more three-dimensional value combination, and the demand for emotional, emotional, scenario-based and social consumer experience is increasing, and the weight between different dimensions in the product value portfolio is changing, which requires enterprises to have more refined granularity and form a more scientific and accurate evaluation system to drive supply-side optimization. We need to pinpoint this new value anchor to achieve the perfect balance between the supply side and the demand side on the new anchor.
The authors, Chen Duan, Ph.D. from Chinese Renmin University and Director of the Digital Economy Integration and Innovation Development Center of Central University of Finance and Economics, and Ye Chensang are master's students at Central University of Finance and Economics
National Business Daily
Editor: Xiang Yanhong