In 2023, the prices of major photovoltaic products in mainland China will decline significantly, and exports will generally show a trend of "volume increase and price reduction", which has attracted great attention in the industry. As one of the "new three things" to stimulate the mainland's foreign trade exports, what will be the trend of the mainland's photovoltaic exports, what challenges will photovoltaic enterprises face in "going overseas", and how should they deal with them?
As one of the "new three" that drives the mainland's foreign trade exports, the export of photovoltaic products continues to run out of "acceleration". According to data from the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, in 2023, the export volume of silicon wafers, cells and modules, the three main materials of photovoltaic products in mainland China, will reach 70.3 GW, 39.3 GW and 211.7 GW, respectively, an increase of 93.6%, 65.5% and 37.9% year-on-year.
However, in 2023, the prices of major photovoltaic products in the mainland will decline significantly, and exports will generally show a trend of "volume increase and price reduction", which has attracted great attention in the industry. In this regard, Zhang Sen, Secretary-General of the Photovoltaic Branch of the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products, analyzed to the reporter of China Energy News, "In 2023, the export volume of photovoltaic products in the mainland will decline slightly year-on-year, and the export volume will rise sharply year-on-year. The outbreak of the energy crisis in Europe, the strong demand for global energy transition, the influx of a large amount of capital into the photovoltaic track, and the rapid expansion of photovoltaic production capacity have led to a phased imbalance between supply and demand around the world, with prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, cells, modules and other links falling sharply, and some links even falling by more than 50% compared with the beginning of 2023. ”
What will be the trend of mainland PV exports in 2024? What challenges will PV companies face in "going overseas", and how should they deal with them?
Mainly thanks to Chinese photovoltaic products
Strong competitiveness
In recent years, China's photovoltaic industry has developed rapidly and continues to maintain its leading position in the world. At present, China's photovoltaic and wind power products have been exported to more than 200 countries and regions around the world, and Chinese enterprises' overseas clean energy investment has also spread all over the world's major countries and regions.
The outstanding export performance is mainly due to the strong competitiveness of China's photovoltaic products. While reducing costs and increasing efficiency, Chinese companies continue to increase research and development efforts to tackle the new generation of photovoltaic cell technology.
According to a report released by the International Renewable Energy Agency, the average LCOE of global photovoltaic power generation projects has fallen by more than 80% in the past decade, thanks to Chinese innovation, Chinese manufacturing and Chinese engineering.
A person from a photovoltaic company who did not want to be named also told the China Energy News: "Thanks to the continuous accumulation of technology and production capacity, Chinese photovoltaic companies have a very competitive advantage in the international market. Our products have a lower LCOE, making Chinese photovoltaic products the first choice for overseas customers. ”
Zhang Sen also said that China's photovoltaic industry ranks first in the world in terms of technical reserves, market size, manufacturing capacity, and industrial chain perfection, and "going overseas" products can meet different market needs in terms of power, efficiency, quality, supporting services, and localization.
In fact, at present, China's photovoltaic enterprises are not limited to export products, and overseas investment and construction of factories has also become a new strategic choice for many photovoltaic enterprises to "go global". The reporter of "China Energy News" combed through relevant information and found that since 2023, many Chinese photovoltaic companies such as LONGi Green Energy, JA Solar, Trina Solar, and Canadian Solar have announced the construction of factories overseas, setting off a new round of photovoltaic "going overseas" tide.
"As the global energy transition continues to advance,
It cannot be without the support of China's photovoltaic industry"
The products are popular overseas, but the process is not all smooth sailing. In the view of the interviewed industry insiders, as more and more countries seize the international photovoltaic market, the international competition for China's photovoltaic product exports is becoming increasingly fierce. Combined with factors such as trade protection, foreign markets are full of challenges. The foreign trade situation faced by the mainland photovoltaic industry is becoming more severe and complex, and some countries are trying to build new trade barriers to hinder the sustainable development of mainland photovoltaic enterprises.
"At a time when the integrated layout of global production capacity has become a trend, mainland PV companies need to consider more uncertainties in the local environment when building factories overseas. For example, country-specific trade and investment risks, industrial chain integrity and performance risks. Zhang Sen pointed out that the United States, the European Union, India and other countries and regions frequently impose restrictions and investigations on mainland photovoltaic enterprises, which has a certain impact on the normal overseas development of mainland photovoltaic enterprises.
Peng Peng, secretary-general of the China New Energy Power Investment and Financing Alliance, also said that at present, photovoltaic companies are facing risks and challenges such as policy adjustments and political frictions in exporting countries, such as tariffs and increasing the proportion of locally produced spare parts, and it is not easy for enterprises to grasp such risks.
In this regard, industry insiders believe that the rapid growth of China's photovoltaic product exports has made many countries feel anxious and worried, trying to exclude Chinese photovoltaic products through trade restriction policies, but this approach will eventually lead to a "backlash". "The continuous advancement of the global energy transition cannot be without the support of China's photovoltaic industry. ”
Zhang Sen suggested that enterprises should continue to improve product quality and competitiveness, focus on advanced technology, scientific and technological innovation and brand advantages, and actively develop and deploy advanced production capacity. At the same time, it is also necessary to aim at market segments, form differentiated competitive advantages, and promote the formation of a high-quality industrial structure with complementary products and markets.
The localization of factories in overseas markets should be implemented.
At the same time, it is also necessary to avoid "swarming"
At present, addressing climate change and accelerating energy transition have become the universal consensus and actions of all countries in the world, and the direction of global green development has become firmer. In particular, the Sunshine Country Statement on Strengthening Cooperation to Address the Climate Crisis, issued by China and the United States in November 2023, provides more space for renewable energy development. China has always been an active advocate and practitioner of green energy transition. In the eyes of industry insiders, these will continue to inspire the confidence of Chinese photovoltaic companies to go global. Chinese PV companies should continue to rationally deploy from a global perspective and continue to maintain international competitiveness.
Respondents are generally optimistic about the export prospects of mainland photovoltaic products this year and the growth rate of global photovoltaic market demand.
Zhang Sen emphasized: "In the long run, the trend of global energy green transformation and increasing investment and cooperation in new energy such as photovoltaics will not change, the growth trend of installed capacity in the global photovoltaic market will not change, and the situation of China's photovoltaic products serving the world will not change." ”
Looking forward to the future, what efforts should Chinese photovoltaic companies make to "go overseas"?
Liu Yiyang, deputy secretary-general of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, pointed out that it is the general trend for enterprises to "go to sea", but they must do a good job of research and be familiar with the relationship between countries and trade rules. At the same time, the localization of factories in overseas markets should be implemented, and at the same time, it should also avoid "swarming".
Zhang Sen said that at present, mainland photovoltaic enterprises have more diverse choices of overseas layout destinations, and enterprises are more concerned about diversifying the supply of products and services for mutual benefit and win-win results, and jointly developing the global photovoltaic market.
TrendForce expects a neutral forecast of 474GW of new global PV capacity in 2024, up 16% year-on-year. From the perspective of the four major regional markets, the installed capacity demand in Asia and Europe will enter the adjustment stage and maintain stable growth, the installed capacity demand in the United States is expected to recover significantly, driving the overall market in the Americas to maintain a high growth rate, and the Middle East region may accelerate the construction of large-scale photovoltaic ground power stations in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other countries due to the acceleration of the energy transition strategy and the decline in module prices.
Original title: China's photovoltaic continues to lead the world
Text丨Reporter Yang Zi Yao Meijiao