Every reporter: Cheng Xiaoling Every editor: Duan Lian, Yang Huan
Henan, which has been sitting firmly in the "first province of foreign trade in central China" for 12 consecutive years, is now facing the crisis of being overtaken.
According to the statistics of Zhengzhou Customs, in the first two months of this year, Henan's foreign trade import and export was 106.65 billion yuan, down 30.9% from the same period last year, 39.6 percentage points lower than the national growth rate (8.7%) in the same period. Among them, exports were 65.2 billion yuan, down by 36.3 percent, and imports were 41.45 billion yuan, down by 20.2 percent.
In contrast, the total import and export value of Anhui in the first two months hit a record high of 122.51 billion yuan, an increase of 12.8% over the same period last year. As a result, the scale of Anhui's foreign trade rose to the ninth place in the country and the first place in the central region; Henan, which was overtaken by Anhui, the former "little brother," fell out of the top 10 in the country and retreated to the second place in the central region.
This is not the first time this has happened. In the first 11 months of last year, Anhui led Henan with an advantage of 2.62 billion yuan, and the total import and export value ranked first in the central region. Although Henan finally stabilized the situation in the annual data, it is an indisputable fact that the gap between the two is narrowing.
At the same time, Zhengzhou is also being chased by central cities such as Wuhan and Hefei, challenging its status as the "first foreign trade city in central China".
In recent years, with the intensification of pressure such as capacity transfer and market contraction, the import and export scale of Foxconn, which is the key support for foreign trade in Henan and Zhengzhou, has been greatly reduced. Cultivating new foreign trade growth points as soon as possible has become an inevitable choice for this large central province to get rid of the current crisis.
The era of relying on Foxconn's single-core drive has passed, and where is the next "Foxconn"?
Dropped out of the top 10
According to data from the General Administration of Customs, in the first two months of this year, the total import and export value of the mainland's trade in goods was 6.61 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, and the scale hit a record high in the same period in history. Among the 31 provinces in the country, a total of 20 provinces achieved positive growth in the total import and export value in the same period, of which 15 provinces achieved double-digit growth rates. Under the overall recovery trend of foreign trade, there are a few exceptions.
Among them, Henan, a major foreign trade province, ranked second to last in the country with an import and export growth rate of -30.9% and Hunan.
From a national point of view, Henan's total import and export value shrank from 154.1 billion yuan in the same period last year to 106.65 billion yuan, and its ranking fell from eighth to thirteenth in the country.
In the central region, Henan was surpassed by Anhui with a gap of nearly 16 billion yuan, not only retreating from the first place in the central region to the second, but also only more than 4 billion yuan away from the third place Hubei.
Zhengzhou, which accounts for half of Henan's foreign trade, is also facing a similar situation. In the first two months of this year, Zhengzhou's total import and export value was 66.5 billion yuan, with a growth rate of -41.2%, ranking first among the six provincial capitals in central China.
In the same period, the total import and export value of Wuhan was 55.76 billion yuan, an increase of 20.6%, and Hefei was 51.39 billion yuan, an increase of 17.3%, and the gap between the foreign trade scale of the two places and Zhengzhou narrowed from more than 60 billion yuan in the same period last year to only more than 10 billion yuan.
Specifically, what is the crux of the stall of foreign trade in Henan and Zhengzhou?
According to the data, in the first two months of this year, Foxconn, as the mainstay of foreign trade in Henan Province, imported and exported 42.99 billion yuan, down 53.1%, accounting for 40.3% of the province's total foreign trade value in the same period, accounting for a decrease of 19.1 percentage points, and lowering the growth rate of foreign trade by 31.5 percentage points. Among them, exports were 22.47 billion yuan, down by 63.7 percent, and imports were 20.52 billion yuan, down by 31.2 percent.
Since entering Zhengzhou in 2010, Foxconn has become an unavoidable keyword on Henan's opening up. Located in the inland hinterland not along the border and not near the sea, Henan and Zhengzhou have been able to rank first in foreign trade in central China for more than 10 consecutive years, which is obviously inseparable from the outstanding contribution of "the world's largest Apple mobile phone production base".
However, with the intensification of capacity transfer risks and market contraction pressures in recent years, the hidden crisis behind the high dependence has gradually emerged.
As early as 2019, the "Henan Economic Blue Book" pointed out that Henan Province's foreign trade import and export is highly dependent on Foxconn, and once its import and export fluctuates, it will have a significant impact on the province's foreign trade. At present, the contribution rate of Foxconn projects to foreign trade is shrinking year by year, and the diversified pattern of foreign trade pillars in the province has not yet been formed, and the ability to resist the risk of foreign trade fluctuations is weak.
At present, Foxconn's foreign trade volume has further shrunk significantly, which has brought great challenges to the local foreign trade stock. Some people point out that if this trend continues, it is not impossible for Henan and Zhengzhou to lose their seats as "the first brother of foreign trade in central China".
Opportunity to break the game
For Henan, getting rid of "Foxconn dependence" will inevitably experience the "pains" of structural adjustment. The key to alleviating the "labor pain" is undoubtedly to find new foreign trade growth points as soon as possible.
So, where are the new opportunities?
From a national point of view, the rapid growth of automobile exports is obviously the biggest bright spot in the foreign trade market in recent years. According to the data, in 2021 and 2022, the export volume of mainland automobiles will continue to reach the level of 2 million and 3 million units, surpassing South Korea and Germany one after another.
In 2023, China's automobile exports will reach 5.221 million units, up 57.4% y/y, of which 1.773 million new energy vehicles will be exported, up 67.1% y/y. This also marks the first time that China's automobile exports have surpassed Japan to rank first in the world with new energy vehicles as an important engine.
According to the latest data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China's auto exports have continued to perform well this year, with 822,000 vehicles exported from January to February, a year-on-year increase of 30.5%.
Locally, many provinces and cities with outstanding foreign trade performance have benefited from the strong growth of automobile exports.
Take Anhui, which has successfully "ascended" this time, as an example. In 2023, Anhui Province will export 729,200 vehicles, an increase of 89.8%, ranking second in the country, and the value of goods will be 71.46 billion yuan, an increase of 118.3%. Among them, 25,900 new energy vehicles were exported, an increase of 70.8%.
Also in this year, the scale of Anhui's foreign trade exceeded 800 billion yuan, "squeezing out" Tianjin, ranking among the top ten in the country for the first time, and the growth rate of import and export ranked first in the Yangtze River Delta and central China.
In the first two months of this year, the driving force of automobile exports continued to highlight - Anhui exported 57.84 billion yuan of mechanical and electrical products, an increase of 24%, accounting for 71% of the total export value. Among them, the export of automobiles (including chassis) and auto parts was 11.64 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 60.4%.
Although Henan's automobile exports have also ushered in rapid growth, the base is still small compared with Anhui and other first-mover provinces.
According to statistics, in 2023, the export value of Henan's automobiles will be 25.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 106.6%, and the export value in the first two months of this year will be 5.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of more than 60%, of which the export value of new energy vehicles will be nearly 1.8 billion yuan.
From the perspective of the scale of the value of goods, Henan is currently less than half of Anhui. In terms of the support of core cities, Zhengzhou's automobile exports exceeded 20 billion yuan last year, and Wuhu, which occupies the absolute advantage of Anhui's automobile exports, reached 53.02 billion yuan in the first 11 months alone, and the gap is still obvious.
"Bet" on the giants
With the advent of the dividends of automobiles represented by new energy vehicles, Henan, which urgently needs to solve the dilemma of foreign trade growth, is also trying to seize this new outlet.
In recent years, there has been fierce competition around the new energy vehicle industry across the country, and as a latecomer to this new track, Henan's "overtaking" ambition is not inferior.
As early as 2022, Henan issued a document with a clear goal: by 2025, the annual output of new energy vehicles will exceed 1.5 million, accounting for more than 40% of the province's automobile output, and strive to build a 300 billion-level new energy vehicle industry cluster, and strive to promote the province's automobile output value to reach 500 billion yuan, parts and supporting output value to reach 500 billion yuan, and sales and value-added service operating income to reach 500 billion yuan.
Zhengzhou, which aims to be the "first city of new energy in China", has proposed to strive for the city's new energy and intelligent networked vehicle production capacity to exceed 1 million by 2025.
At the critical moment when the local sprint was launched, the entry of BYD, a leading new energy vehicle company, brought heavy benefits.
In September 2021, the Henan Provincial People's Government signed a strategic cooperation agreement with BYD Co., Ltd. In 2023, BYD's vehicle production base with the largest production capacity and the largest number of workers will be officially put into operation at Zhengzhou Airport, and the Zhengzhou BYD plate will complete an output value of 33.47 billion yuan and produce more than 200,000 vehicles that year. According to the plan, the future production capacity of BYD's Zhengzhou base is expected to reach one million.
Compared with the industrial layout of "slow and half-beat", the greater advantage of Henan and Zhengzhou lies in the advantages of long-accumulated transportation hubs.
According to public reports, since the first special train for the export of new energy vehicles in Henan in October 2022, Henan cars have accelerated to the world. With the joint efforts of customs, railways, ports and other parties, the local government has created a "green channel" for automobile exports of "China-Europe Express + Sea-rail Intermodal Transport", from policy assistance to guiding enterprises to comprehensively apply various facilitation measures, helping enterprises to achieve seamless connection of logistics, loading and unloading, and supervision, and promoting the overall reduction of the customs clearance time for automobile exports by more than 50%.
In this context, the export of domestic brand automobiles such as SAIC, Yutong and Huajun has shown explosive growth.
This will undoubtedly open up new space for BYD, which intends to speed up the pace of going overseas.
According to statistics, in 2023, BYD's overseas sales will reach a new high, with new energy vehicle sales reaching 242,800 units, becoming the Chinese brand with the most new energy vehicle exports in 2023. In March this year, BYD's overseas sales of new energy vehicles reached 38,000 units, a significant increase from the same period last year (13,000 units).
On the production side, BYD has entered 78 countries and regions around the world, and has invested in overseas regions such as Brazil, Hungary, and Thailand to accelerate the layout of overseas production bases.
A new round of "war" for cars going to sea has begun, and the "first brother of foreign trade in central China", which has the advantages of car giants and overseas channels, can create a counterattack miracle again?
Reporter |
Editor|Duan Lian, Yang Huan, Yi Qijiang
Proofreading|Liu Siqi
|National Business Daily nbdnews original article|
Reprinting, excerpting, copying, mirroring, etc. without permission is prohibited
National Business Daily