Ren Zeping: The solution to the low fertility has been found, the central bank will print 2 trillion more, and 50 million more births in ten years!

New Talks on Real Estate

2024-04-08 06:30Published in Henan

Since 2016, the full liberalization of the two-child policy has not triggered a fertility boom as expected, which makes us wonder what is the reason for the continuous decline in the fertility rate? In the face of this severe challenge, the country decisively and fully liberalized the three-child policy on May 31, 2021, demonstrating its firm determination to solve the population problem. Recalling that more than 20 years ago, when the family planning policy was our national policy, we are now facing the dilemma of negative population growth, which is indeed full of emotion.

According to the Consumer Daily, the birth rate of newborns in the mainland is declining sharply, and without timely and effective policy intervention, I am afraid that it will follow in the footsteps of South Korea and Japan and fall into the quagmire of "fertility crisis". So how do you deal with this challenge? Is it simply a matter of liberalizing the three-child policy or a comprehensive birth policy? The answer is clearly not. In fact, after the two-child policy was liberalized in 2016, although the birth rate briefly rebounded in 2016, it continued to decline in the following seven years. By 2023, the number of new births in the country will fall to 9.02 million, a record low. Ren Zeping, a well-known economist, pointed out that the mainland's total fertility rate has fallen to 0.72, ranking one of the lowest in the world.

Although we have liberalized the two-child and three-child policy, people's willingness to have children has not been significantly improved. In response to this phenomenon, Ren Zeping conducted an in-depth investigation and revealed four core reasons for people's low fertility intentions:

1. The high cost of childbirth seriously affects the quality of life of the family. 2. Housing prices remain high, making life more and more difficult. 3. For the future of the next generation, many parents are worried about the solidification of social class, unless there are more opportunities for class leap in the future. 4. Excessive competition for educational resources has exacerbated the pressure of life.

All of these reasons reveal the essence of fertility problems – economic pressures. From childbirth to parenting, every link comes with a huge financial burden, which also makes many families choose to have only one child and invest more resources in nurturing them, hoping that they can live a better life in the future. What's more, many young people are putting off planning to marry and have children because they can't afford to buy a home. In 2023, the number of new births on the mainland has slipped to 9.02 million, and if this trend continues, the total population of the mainland will be only 902 million in 100 years. This means that the continent's population will fall into negative growth for a long time. Population is the cornerstone of the country, and the decline of the new population will have a profound impact on the mainland's economic growth, innovation vitality, burden of support, people's sense of well-being, and the process of national rejuvenation.

Therefore, how to stimulate people's fertility willingness and increase fertility rate has become an urgent problem for us to solve. In this regard, Ren Zeping proposed a pragmatic solution: establish a fertility encouragement fund as soon as possible, and increase the money supply by 2 trillion yuan through the central bank's monetary policy, in order to increase the number of newborns by 50 million in the next 10 years. This will not only alleviate the problem of an aging population and a declining birthrate, but also inject more vitality into the future of the country.

The core of Ren Zeping's plan is to incentivize childbirth through cash subsidies, which just hits the pain point of contemporary society. According to the survey, most families are hesitant to have a second or third child due to financial pressure. In fact, history has proven that our nation has a deep emotional foundation for childbearing. Back more than a decade ago, many families struggled to add a child to life.

Today, the policy has liberalized the second and third children, but economic factors are still the main obstacle to childbearing. Of course, some people may mention education, health care, housing, women's employment, and many other factors, but these are all closely related to the economy. In a well-off family, these problems can often be properly resolved. Therefore, the core of encouraging childbearing lies in solving economic problems.

Ren Zeping's proposal has received widespread support, with as many as 66.7 percent of people supporting the establishment of a fertility fund funded by the state or the central bank to provide cash incentives for each child. This is just the beginning, and we also need comprehensive support in areas such as housing, education, and women's employment. For example, subsidies should be given to homeless families with a second or third child, more nurseries should be added to make kindergartens compulsory, and policies should be introduced to ensure that women do not lose their jobs because of childbirth.

In addition, Ren Zeping stressed that we cannot expect the post-90s and post-00s to have a second or third child, because at present, many of them do not even have a strong desire to get married and have a child. Therefore, he issued an urgent appeal to seize the last opportunity to have children among those born between 1975 and 1985, because they still adhere to the traditional concept of "more children, more blessings". However, the reality is that the number of women of childbearing age on the mainland is rapidly decreasing at a rate of 3 million to 4 million per year. To do this, we must act now and introduce a fund policy to encourage fertility, or we will miss the opportunity.

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