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After the Qingming holiday, the domestic agricultural product market resumed purchase and sales, and the market price change warning came, involving, pigs, soybean meal and wheat, among them, the pig price "took off", and the price showed a three-day rising trend, but the rebound came to an end, and the price had a trend of rising and falling. In the soybean meal market, the soybean meal market "sits on the slide", and the pressure on the weak operation of the market has increased sharply, but it is not appropriate to be overly bearish, and weather factors may become the subject of a new round of speculation. In the wheat market, wheat prices are under pressure and falling, the market confidence is insufficient, and the price is still under pressure to fall further! The specific analysis is as follows:
Pig market: at present, pig prices show a rising trend, on April 8, pig prices rose to 15.25 yuan / kg, up 0.11 yuan from yesterday, pig prices basically recovered the decline before the holiday, the price returned to the stage high, the domestic market continued to rise most of the trend, however, the market sentiment has deteriorated.
Feedback from the grassroots, at present, the retail pig farm subscription mentality has improved significantly, the north and south regions, the social pig supply level has improved, some group pig enterprises have completed the average daily slaughter plan poorly, some group pig enterprises have poor bidding performance, and traders have deteriorated.
In terms of Eryu, previously, Eryu briefly heated up, but, from the market feedback, Eryu entered the market again cautiously, in particular, the price of pigs in many places rose to 7.5 ~ 8 yuan, Eryu supplement column risk is higher, and the phenomenon of wait-and-see has increased significantly.
In terms of consumption, the post-holiday consumption inertia deteriorated, slaughtering orders decreased, due to the previous strong pig prices, the white price increase market to undertake the lack of strength, the gross white price spread further narrowed, some slaughtering enterprises lost money, taking advantage of the situation to reduce the price of the mentality has risen!
Therefore, by the market supply and demand adjustment, personal analysis, pig price rise into the end, the next 1 ~ 3 days, pig prices fall or will make a comeback, however, due to the breeding end of the empty bar, the breeding end also has the mentality of resisting the price reduction of pigs, it is expected that pig prices will still maintain the trend of frequent adjustments!
Soybean meal market: In March, the price of soybean meal rose and fell, into April, the soybean meal market "sat on the slide", the market continued to fluctuate weakly, from the institutional data to understand, at present, Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangdong and Tianjin, the spot price of soybean meal in oil mills fell to 3300 ~ 3360 yuan / kg, compared with the previous high point fell by nearly 300 yuan / ton!
Soybean meal market under pressure, on the one hand, due to Brazil and Argentina, the new soybean harvest progress is significantly faster than last year, the soybean export cycle forward, the export pressure of U.S. beans has increased sharply, the U.S. soybean market is weakly adjusted, CBOT soybean quotation has fallen below 1200 cents, and the domestic meal market is under pressure; ！
However, due to the high price of Brazilian soybeans and the high cost of imported soybeans, the price of soybean meal may be limited! Although, the Brazilian soybean and South American soybean harvest is expected to be gradually realized, but due to the agency's prediction, a new round of La Niña event is formed, which may affect the weather in South America, Brazil and Argentina may have high temperature and little rain, which is not conducive to the growth of soybean crops in the next season, and may have some support for the domestic soybean meal market in the later stage!
However, recently, with the weakening of the downstream stocking demand, the purchase and sale of flour returned to the off-season, and this week's grain storage listed wheat rotation reached 728,000 tons, the turnover rate was 73%, the policy wheat rotation increased significantly, the market sentiment further weakened, the spot wheat quotation continued to decline, Shandong, Hebei and Henan and other places, the mainstream wheat listing price fell back to 1.35~1.38 yuan / Jin, the average price has fallen below 1.37 yuan / catty, and the performance of the wheat market is relatively sluggish!
According to the analysis of the institution, due to the strong summer grain wheat harvest is expected to be strong, Hubei early-maturing wheat harvest appeared around mid-May, only a little more than a month from the new wheat market, the domestic mainstream grain depot will still maintain the rhythm of centralized rotation, from the market feedback, this week's listed wheat rotation plan is about 565,000 tons, the supply is relatively loose!
On the demand side, due to the poor sales of flour, the enthusiasm of downstream stocking is not high, the profitability of by-products is poor, the operating rate of mainstream milling enterprises will still be low, and the enthusiasm for replenishing raw grain is not high, and the spot wheat market will continue to be under pressure, and it is expected that the price will still be weak. However, due to the reduction of channel inventories, traders' grain prices are upside down, and the mentality of reluctance to sell may become stronger, it is expected that the wheat market will be slightly supported, the decline is relatively limited, and the market is in the stage of grinding the bottom!
Price change warning: On April 8, pig prices "took off", soybean meal "sat on the slide", and wheat prices fell under pressure!