The smoke of gunpowder over the Taiwan Strait seems to have become a little thicker. The mainland's latest statement has made the topic of "cross-strait reunification" once again hot. As Taiwan's provocations have become more intense, the mainland's response has become more resolute. A series of recent military moves and political declarations seem to imply that the mainland has run out of patience with the issue of Taiwan's reunification. All this is sending a signal to the world: the curtain of reunification may be about to be slowly opened.
On February 14, a serious maritime conflict broke out in Taiwan, which seemed to be the trigger. The Taiwan side not only did not admit its mistake, but instead shirked its responsibilities by saying one "lie" after another, which angered the mainland. Taiwan is also flaunting its military might in the waters near Kinmen, claiming that it will strengthen its "law enforcement power," which has the intention of drawing a clear line in the strait forever. In this regard, the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council of the People's Republic of China did not buy it, and made it clear that there is no so-called "prohibition and restriction of waters" in the Xiajin waters, and that the mainland's coast guard ships, fishery administration ships, and maritime surveillance ships have been patrolling this sea area, and this is the norm.
As a matter of fact, some scholars on the island have analyzed that the mainland is gradually withdrawing Taiwan's "jurisdiction" over the Xiajin waters through legal principles and actions, and such actions are even spreading to the waters around the island of Taiwan. In August 2022, U.S. Congressman Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan desperately, and in response, mainland warships and aircraft began to conduct regular combat readiness patrols around Taiwan. Taiwan's so-called "middle line of the strait" no longer exists, and now, the "forbidden line" in the Xiamen-Jin sea area has also become a thing of the past. Taiwan's sea and air supremacy capabilities have been compressed, and the space for the activities of the forces supporting "Taiwan independence" is getting smaller and smaller.
Not long ago, Taiwan's military announced that it would conduct a ground-to-sea live-fire exercise in the waters near Kinmen, calling it "routine." The problem is that Kinmen is only a few kilometers from the mainland, and this so-called "routine" exercise is clearly a provocation. Senior Colonel Wu Qian, spokesman for the mainland's Ministry of National Defense, responded very directly: The PLA has always spoken with action, resolutely and professionally. This time, the mainland has upgraded from "opposing independence" and promoting reunification to "fighting independence" and promoting reunification, and it seems that the mainland's patience with the "Taiwan independence" separatist forces has reached a critical point.
Senior Colonel Wu Qian also stressed that any movement of the Taiwan military is under the control of the PLA. The more rampant the "Taiwan independence" activities become, the slimmer the possibility of peaceful reunification. The People's Liberation Army (PLA) is always ready, determined, and capable of thwarting any interference and smashing any "Taiwan independence" plot. Under such pressure, the DPP authorities eventually canceled the planned live-fire drill at sea and replaced it with shooting at a land range. On the surface, this is a weakening of strength, but in fact, it is a helpless choice made by the Taiwan authorities under pressure.
In this battle without gunpowder, the timeline is very clear. From the collision incident on February 14, to the refusal of the Taiwan authorities to admit their mistakes, to the regular patrols of mainland coast guard ships, tensions between the two sides of the strait have escalated at every step. Since Pelosi's visit to Taiwan in August, the mainland's military operations have not stopped, the disappearance of the median line of the strait, and the jurisdiction dispute in the Xiamen-Jin Sea area have all been constantly testing and redefining the boundaries of cross-strait relations.
Again, the actions of the continental side were not without warning. Even before Pelosi's visit to Taiwan in August, the mainland was already stepping up air and sea patrols around Taiwan to make clear its position on Taiwan's sovereignty. The other side responded with a series of provocative acts, including the strengthening of so-called "law enforcement powers". This kind of behavior not only did not ease the situation, but on the contrary, made the mainland's policy toward Taiwan more firm.
In the process, Taiwan's space is compressed little by little. From the mainland's point of view, this is a kind of containment of the "Taiwan independence" forces and a reshaping of Taiwan's overall strategic environment. The mainland's goal is clear: on the one hand, it wants to maintain stability in the strait through military action, and on the other hand, it wants to achieve de facto control over Taiwan through constant naval and air patrols.
Taiwan's response is to look for the mainland's bottom line in the midst of constant temptation. From refusing to admit mistakes to stepping up military exercises, every step is like challenging the mainland's limit of patience. In the end, Taiwan had to cancel the live-fire exercise near Kinmen, which to a certain extent showed that the mainland's military pressure was effective.
In such a sensitive period, every move on both sides of the Taiwan Strait is particularly important. Taiwan's international space is limited, and the mainland is constantly strengthening ties with Taiwan through various actions, and economic trade and cultural exchanges are constantly increasing. This is not only a kind of soft power pressure on Taiwan, but also a preparation for possible future reunification.
From the incident on 14 February to the present, the changes in the situation in the Taiwan Strait can be said to be changing with each passing day. In the process, the mainland's military and political actions have constantly sent a message to the outside world: The mainland is serious and prepared for the Taiwan issue. Every provocation by the Taiwan authorities has invisibly accelerated this process.