Author: Li Yunfei|Source: Original
Yellen is here again, and what purpose is she carrying this time? Does she want us to be the receiver of U.S. debt again? Of course, Yellen has another purpose besides this purpose. That's a really interesting purpose. Follow me and share some wealth dry goods for you every day.
As the saying goes, nothing will go to the Three Treasures! Especially Yellen, who is a high-ranking official in the United States. Her arrival this time also means that the current economy of the United States is facing big problems, and she also hopes to solve these problems through China.
Let's start by talking about what problems the United States is currently facing.
First, US inflation remains under pressure. In March this year, the one-year inflation rate in the United States was expected to reach 3%, which is higher than before. Therefore, it is indeed not as simple as it seems to reach the 2% inflation target, and if you are not careful, there will be signs of a rebound.
Second, the number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States in February was 275,000, down from 353,000 in January, and the unemployment rate of 3.9% was also up from 3.7% in January.
In addition, Russia has also decided to cut oil production by another 471,000 barrels per day in the second quarter, and other OPEC+ members have also decided to cut oil production until the second quarter. This, in turn, will put pressure on the slowdown in inflation in the United States. Some analysts have pointed out that for every dollar increase in the cost of crude oil, Lao Bai's approval rating will drop by at least 1%.
In addition, the size of the US debt has reached a new high, reaching $34.24 trillion, and now it is growing at a crazy rate of $1 trillion every 100 days! Conversely, if the dollar does not cut interest rates, it will be difficult for the United States to solve these problems.
If Lao Bai is not able to solve these problems in a timely manner, and the US dollar does not meet the expectation of interest rate cuts, then the combination of these problems will be very detrimental to Lao Bai's election in November this year. This is the real intention of Yellen's visit to China, and the core point of this visit is only two purposes.
The first one, of course, is to hope that China will continue to buy US bonds!
The Fed has been saying that the dollar will cut interest rates three times this year, which can be said to be a last resort. Because the dollar does not cut interest rates, the economic problems of the United States will be even more serious. But the question is that if the US dollar cuts interest rates, who will take over in the face of such a huge scale of US bonds? If everyone fails to take the order, then in the end the Fed will have to print its own money to pay for it, which is very fatal to the current economic situation of the United States.
Then Yellen's visit to China will definitely lobby us about how strong the US economy is, how good the employment situation is, how promising the development prospects are, and so on. It can be said that as long as China continues to buy US bonds, the Federal Reserve will have the confidence to cut interest rates! Yellen is paving the way for the United States' next work in advance! Because as long as there is sufficient liquidity, it can be said that all the risky problems of the United States will be slowly hedged over time.
The second is to persuade China to reduce the volume of goods exported to the United States.
Yellen said before she came that it was because Chinese goods were so cheap that it led to a large number of bankruptcies of American companies. In other words, what Yellen means is that if Chinese businesses reduce their exports to the United States, or if China can significantly increase the export prices of goods, this will promote the healthy growth of American companies, American jobs can be guaranteed, and the American economy can be fully active.
Let's first look at a set of data: in the first two months of this year, ASEAN, the European Union and the United States are still the top three countries in mainland commodity exports, and the European Union and the United States have contributed nine times more to our commodity exports than Russia, and the Sino-US trade surplus in the first two months is still 47.29 billion US dollars, accounting for 37.8% of our total trade surplus!
It can be said that Chinese goods do bring a lot of competitive pressure to American companies. Although the United States has always wanted to decouple and break the chain, in essence, the United States is inseparable from Chinese goods. It's really funny, my own business has gone bankrupt, and I blame other goods for being too cheap.
Therefore, when Yellen comes this time, she will definitely lobby the mainland to reduce its commodity exports to the United States, or hope that the mainland will reduce its subsidy policies for various industries, so as to raise the export prices of mainland goods. Then it is expressed in lofty words such as China and the United States are both world economic powers, we must jointly stabilize and promote the growth environment and perfect development of the global economy, and we must jointly respond to global economic challenges.
In addition, the purpose of Yellen's visit to China this time will certainly not be so obvious, so she will definitely discuss in the end, such as how China and the United States can jointly respond to global climate change, and so on.
So, no matter how many times Yellen comes to China, it seems that this is a constructive, mutually beneficial and win-win communication, but in fact it is one-sided. So in this case, what do you think the mainland should do?
Author: Li Yunfei, founder of a large Internet company, CEO of a large food chain enterprise, engaged in the Internet and physical chain industry for 20 years, has been reported by Sohu.com, Netease Finance, Tencent, Phoenix.com, Zhongxun.com, Baidu and other well-known media platforms, good at financial knowledge analysis, entrepreneurial guidance!