Before reading this article, in order to facilitate your discussion and sharing, please click "Follow", which can bring you a different sense of participation, thank you for your support.
Text: Mo Hanxue
Edited by Mo Hanxue
[Preface]
With the development of society, our country has become more and more important in the international community, and has become one of the countries comparable to the United States.
However, in recent years, there have always been media comparisons between the two countries, and once the two countries have some turbulence in policy or development, they will be hyped up.
But then again, to a certain extent, the development of the two countries has a great impact on the development of the world and the direction of the international community, after all, the total GDP of the two countries accounts for 45% of the total global GDP, nearly half of the share.
It is precisely because of this that many countries are paying attention to the development trend of us and the United States, and at the end of last year, Moody's released an evaluation report on our country's economy.
This evaluation report was actually very negative for us, and at that time, many media who did not like us seized on this report and began to say that our country's economy was going downhill, and our rise was over, and so on.
So, what is going on here? Is our country really stopping to develop?
【Differences in economic development between China and the United States】
Last year, our country's GDP was only 65% of the GDP of the United States, compared to 77% in 2021, which is indeed a lot down.
In the beginning, it was thought that the reason for the economic decline was the new crown epidemic, and when the epidemic situation improved, the economy would be revitalized, but unfortunately, the situation did not improve.
This situation also confirms from the side that there may be some long-term obstacles, so that the sentiment that cannot surpass the United States begins to rise, which is very detrimental to our development.
You must know that in 2021, the exchange rate between the RMB and the US dollar reached 6.3, but in 2022, this amount increased to 7.3, which means that the RMB has become worthless.
However, the short-term reduction does not mean that the gap between the two countries will become wider and wider in the future, in fact, in the final analysis, it is because since the beginning of the new crown epidemic, the two countries have reached a fork in the road in economic development.
Since the beginning of the epidemic in 2020, the United States has used an expansionary fiscal policy, and even if there is high inflation in the country, the US government is still posting.
According to the data, in 2022, the deficit rate of the United States reached 5.5%, and last year, this amount is still rising, and the effect of this situation in a short period of time is very obvious.
In addition to inflation, the enthusiasm of the local people for consumption is rising, especially in housing prices, even if the people take out loans, they have to buy their favorite items.
In contrast, our country has not taken the road of strong stimulus like the United States, but has carried out reforms in many areas of the country, such as health care and education, as well as real estate, which has attracted everyone's attention.
In such a situation, many companies have closed down, and there are many unemployed people in society, and it is difficult to find a job.
In this regard, there are many so-called experts and media who have constantly called for learning from the US method to stimulate the economy, but we have not tried such a method of strong stimulus, on the contrary, we are unwilling to implement such a policy.
Because the method of strong stimulation will only benefit the current generation, but it is our next generation that needs to be born, and it is not much good for long-term sustainable development.
Although it is said that our country's total GDP was not as large as that of the United States last year, and even only accounted for 65 percent of the GDP of the United States, this does not mean that the problem is in our country.
So, what's going on here?
[Is it really over?]
Just like the exchange rate we talked about earlier, because the United States always admired its own dollar, so many countries' GDP will choose to compare with the United States.
However, changes in the exchange rate will directly affect the country's economic strength, especially now that the United States continues to raise interest rates and depreciate the RMB, in this case, converted into US dollars, our GDP will naturally decline.
So, it doesn't mean that we have stopped rising economically, but that the exchange rate is affecting our GDP, plus the United States is now inflationary, so their GDP is rising rapidly.
But in any case, the United States is, after all, an old-fashioned capitalist and has always shown a vigorous and resolute attitude in economic development, while our country, in the course of economic development, has always shown steady progress.
The reason why the United States uses strong stimulus to develop the economy is because the local economy has no new growth point due to long-term accumulation, which is what we call eating the old capital.
Therefore, it is necessary to adopt new policies to stimulate consumption and make everyone regain enthusiasm for consumption, so as to ensure the normal operation of the country, but in terms of disadvantages, it is also very obvious, that is, the current generation enjoys happiness, and the next generation cannot.
After all, nearly 70 percent of the GDP growth of the United States is dependent on personal consumption, and it can be said that personal consumption has become the main force driving economic growth, which is not a good thing for the country.
Perhaps this year, the Fed will stop raising interest rates, and after the United States loses such help, economic growth will inevitably slow down or even stop.
Therefore, for the United States, their GDP growth is obvious, not because the local economy is progressing while it is developing, but because it is a challenge to sustainable development in the future.
Our country cannot use this method because this way of stimulating economic development is not suitable for the future development of our country, after all, our country has a large population, and when it develops, it is better to move forward steadily.
In fact, we can see in the daily news that in recent years, our country has developed very well in many fields, and not only that, but also formulated a long-term development plan, so we are not stopping the rise, on the contrary, we are slowly trying to figure it out.
As long as we can calm down, we will definitely be able to surpass the United States in our future development, after all, although their current data facing the public is beautiful, it will not support it for too long.
So, what can our country do to achieve such a goal?
What China should do in the future?
Perhaps from the perspective of short-term development, our country's economy is indeed unable to surpass the United States for the time being, but in the future development, such a conclusion cannot be determined.
After all, our country has two major advantages, the first is that there are many talents and labor, such as Ah San, their economy is also very high in the process of development, which is classified as a large number of people.
You must know that every year, more than 10 million college graduates in our country enter the society from school, injecting new impetus and firepower into the society, and our country's per capita working time and participation rate are also among the highest in the world.
The second is that our country has attached great importance to high and new technology in recent years, and the gap between the two countries is getting smaller and smaller, which is indispensable behind a large amount of investment.
But there is still a long way to go to surpass the United States, and our rise is a protracted war, especially now, when the United States' attitude towards us is getting worse and worse, and it always hinders the development of our country.
In 2020, our country became the second largest economy after the United States, with a combined GDP of more than $6 trillion, and we can actually see from these figures that as long as we maintain an annual growth rate of 8% for five years, we can achieve our goals.
Some friends may be worried, after all, it is 8 percent, which is not a small number, but in fact, such a growth rate is not a difficult thing for our country.
Although we can see from the data of recent years that our country's economy has maintained a growth rate of only 6 percent when it is developing, it is indeed difficult to reach 8 percent.
However, let's not forget that our country is now the largest trading country, coupled with the implementation of the Belt and Road policy, we have reached trade relations with many countries, and at the same time established a lot of friendly partners.
At present, the circulation of the renminbi in the international arena has increased substantially, and last year, we also established a renminbi settlement system with countries with relatively good relations, and carried out de-dollarization to the end.
When our currency goes global, our development will naturally become better, so it is not as difficult to achieve a growth rate of 8% as everyone thinks.
In addition, in the development of our country in recent years, we have focused on the development of new energy, as well as various intelligent equipment, especially electric vehicles, and many countries in Europe and the United States are full of praise for our electric vehicles.
Therefore, as long as we make good use of our own advantages, maintain these advantages, and continue to innovate and develop, in the future, the world's first will no longer be a dream, but become a reality.
【Conclusion】
In the process of our country's development, the country has never thought about how high it should stand, and it is enough to ensure that the lives of the masses can be better, and this is also the principle and policy that our leaders have always promoted.
In fact, when looking at whether a country's development is good or not, we can't just look at how high the GDP is, and keep drilling the horns, which is not good for everyone.
Resources
China Economic Report - China's Economic Reform Process, Reasons for Success and Prospects
The Contemporary World: The Impact of the Biden Administration's Economic Policies on U.S.-European Relations