Weekly market trend analysis of broiler market
This week, the average price of white feather broiler chicks was 2.99 yuan/bird, down 0.2 yuan/bird or 6.27% compared with the average price last week.
During the week, the hatchery seedlings increased slightly, the price of chickens exceeded expectations and stabilized, boosting the enthusiasm of farmers to fill the column, the hatchery as a whole was smooth, and the mainstream transaction price of chicken seedlings rose;
This week, the average purchase price of broilers in the main producing areas of the country was 3.75 yuan/jin, down 0.03 yuan/jin, or 0.79%, compared with the average price last week.
This week, the price of chicken first stabilized and then fell, the market demand for products in the early stage was flat, the enthusiasm of enterprises to acquire in general, the chicken slaughter was not much, and the goods were stable;
The comprehensive selling price of white feather broiler products has declined, among them, the weekly average price of frozen large breasts is 8.49 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg or 0.59% compared with the average price last week, and the weekly average price of large-size pipa legs is 8.56 yuan/kg, down 0.07 yuan/kg or 0.81% compared with the average price last week.
Affected by the weak demand performance, the pace of product delivery has slowed down, and the trading of chicken breast, legs, claws, and wings products has been weak, and the products are not fast. Coupled with the high level of product inventory, the comprehensive selling price of products fell this week.
This week, the average price of 817 chicks was 0.88 yuan/bird, down 0.06 yuan/bird or 6.38% compared with the average price last week.
This week, the supply of chicks fell slightly, but the price of chickens fell, farmers are not confident in the market outlook, the mentality of filling the column is cautious, the demand side is bearish in the market, and the price of chicks has declined.
This week, the average purchase price of 3.0 kg of 817 little white chickens was 4.00 yuan/jin, down 0.1 yuan/jin, or 2.44%, compared with the average price last week.
This week, the number of large-sized chickens slaughtered has gradually increased, and the difficulty of enterprise acquisition has decreased. During the week, frozen products and chilled chickens were not shipped quickly, the enthusiasm of enterprises to start work was sluggish, the broiler market was slow, and chicken prices continued to fall.
Broiler market forecast for next week
White feather broiler chicks: short-term chicken prices are weak as a whole, and chicken breeding continues to lose money, negative farmers fill the column enthusiasm, weak demand in the seedling market, hatchery seedlings or increase, supply and demand double negative market, hatchery seedling pressure is greater, and the mainstream transaction price of chicks may decline.
In mid-April, with the decline in seedling prices, the acceptance capacity of farmers improved, the number of hatchery seedlings or slightly increased, the demand side boosted, hatchery seedlings are acceptable, and seedling prices or a narrow rebound. In the second half of April, the overall weak operation of the chicken market, the breeding end of the supplement column is more cautious, the supply of chicks or continue to increase, the trading of the seedling market is weak, and the price of chicks may continue to fall.
White feather broilers and segmented products: Affected by the Qingming holiday, the pre-holiday breeding link is worried about the enterprise holiday, superimposed is not optimistic about the market outlook, the slaughter of chickens is slightly advanced, affected by this, it is expected that the supply of chicken sources during the Qingming holiday is relatively small, and the supply of chicken sources after the holiday may maintain an increasing trend.
From the demand side, the terminal demand is weak, the industry is cautious about taking the goods, the manufacturer has a poor shipping mentality, the slaughter loss, the intention to purchase the chicken is insufficient, some companies are on holiday during the holiday, the purchase volume is reduced, the supply and demand are weak, and the chicken price is expected to run steadily and weakly next week.
After the holiday, the supply of chicken sources increased, but the product market continued to be weak, the enthusiasm of enterprises to acquire was not good, and the supply and demand were both negative, and the price of white feather broilers is expected to remain stable in the next three weeks.
In the third week of the next week, the market demand will be flat, dealers will wait and see the market, and the pace of market trading will slow down. Slaughter output increased, and product inventory was adjusted to a medium and high level.
To sum up, it is expected that the market price of the product will be stable in the next three weeks. In the middle of the dealership, the appropriate amount of replenishment, the pace of product delivery accelerated, and the price of the product may rise slightly.
817 chicks: According to relevant data, the supply of chicks during the Qingming period is not large, the demand is flat, and the price of chicks may stabilize the operation. After the holiday, the market demand for chicks may be weakened, the supply of chicks has increased slightly, the trading of chicks has slowed down, and the price of chicks may fall slightly.
817 Little White Chicken: After the Qingming Festival, the market demand for products has weakened, the enthusiasm for slaughtering and purchasing is insufficient, and the supply of chickens is slightly more, and the price of chickens may be weak. In the second half of April, the supply of chicken may decrease slightly, when affected by the May Day Festival, the product shipment may improve slightly, and the enthusiasm for slaughtering may increase, and the price of chicken may rise slightly.
Feed raw material market analysis
This week, the average spot price of domestic soybean meal was 3461 yuan/ton, down 86 yuan/ton or 2.4% compared with the average price last week.
This week, the spot price of domestic soybean meal fell weakly, oil mills sold at a low price, traders shipped at a low price, the basis weakened, and the market transaction was light.
U.S. soybean acreage and inventory data were in line with expectations, with U.S. soybean stocks at 1.845 billion bushels on March 1, 2024, and U.S. soybean acreage estimated at 86.51 million acres in 2024.
The U.S. old crop soybean supply is abundant, and as the Brazilian soybean harvest continues to advance, the competition for U.S. old crop soybean exports is becoming more severe. New crop soybeans in the U.S. are about to begin, and as spring planting conditions change, the acreage is likely to shift, and weather factors are more of a concern.
Due to rains in the north-central region, Brazil's soybean harvest is lagging behind last year. Dry weather will favour the soybean harvest in Argentina, where farmers have harvested 4.4 percent of their crop and are estimated to produce 52.5 million tonnes.
Imported soybeans arrived in Hong Kong is delayed, the short-term supply of imported soybeans is tight, and the soybean inventory of oil mills is at a low level.
The poultry market is weak, the price of live pigs is expected to rise strongly, and the market transaction is weakened after the terminal centralized replenishment. Last week, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills continued to decline, and the decline narrowed, and it is expected that the soybean meal inventory of oil mills will continue to run at a low level this week.
The external market is weak, but the start of the oil mill is still low, the oil mill ships at the right price, the trader sells at a low price, the basis weakens slightly, and the price of soybean meal is weak.
This week, the average price of domestic corn was 2385 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton, or 0.08%, compared with the average price last week.
This week, domestic corn prices fluctuated and adjusted, and the news of increasing reserves boosted grain prices in Northeast China, while the price of increased grain prices in North China was weak;
It is rumored that a new round of Jilin reserves will be launched, with a storage capacity of 2.64 million tons, the news of increased reserves will boost and the grassroots surplus grain will continue to be consumed, traders are not willing to ship at low prices, the effective circulation of grain sources in the market is declining, and the price of deep processing enterprises will generally increase prices to stimulate the arrival, and the purchase price of Inner Mongolia Yipin corn will be raised by 50 yuan to 2350 yuan/ton; Longfeng starch, Jingliang Longjiang and Tongliao plum blossoms will be raised by 20 yuan/ton; SDIC Tieling and Xintianlong will be raised by 10 yuan, Cargill biochemical dry food will be raised by 10 yuan/ton, and the third class of tide grain will be raised by 30 yuan/ton.
The surplus grain at the grassroots level in North China is 3 percent, the temperature has risen, the sentiment of grain sales at the grassroots level is strong, the inventory of traders has increased slightly, and the purchase price has been reduced slightly; the purchase price of deep processing enterprises has exceeded 1,000 vehicles, and the purchase price is weak.
Inventories in northern ports rose to a high level, but loading demand supported traders' firm quotations, while import-substituting grains in southern ports was sufficient, and feed companies still purchased corn on demand for domestic trade.
In addition, the recent market bullish news has been frequent, such as the delay in the delivery of brown rice, the import of corn (corn flour) or the introduction of restrictive policies, etc., have boosted the current market sentiment, and we should pay attention to the recent policy trends.