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In the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, if our army changed its operational plan, what were the chances of winning the war?

author:Clever Wind Chimes 008

Taiwan has been an inseparable part of China since ancient times.

About Taiwan is Chinese territory, the earliest written record that can be found in the history books appeared in 230 AD, but at that time Taiwan was not called Taiwan, people called it Yizhou, at that time Sun Quan of the Three Kingdoms sent 10,000 soldiers to Taiwan, which later Wu Guoren's "Linhai Soil Chronicles" left the world's earliest account of Taiwan.

During the Sui and Tang dynasties, China's national strength was prosperous, and the ancestors fancied Taiwan's rich land, large area but insufficient development and advantages of going to sea, and sent troops to Taiwan many times and actively immigrated to Taiwan.

In the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, if our army changed its operational plan, what were the chances of winning the war?

The Song, Yuan, and Ming dynasties had already begun to set up special government departments to administer Taiwan (then called Penghu or Yizhou), and it was not until the late Ming Dynasty that Taiwan was officially called Taiwan, and the name "Taiwan" officially appeared in various official books and documents.

At the beginning of the 17th century, with the spread of Marco Polo's "Marco Polo's Travels" in Europe, Western countries yearned for the rich China in the East described in the book.

The Netherlands, as the world's maritime hegemon at that time, were bent on seeking wealth in the East, and they took advantage of the changes in China's domestic situation at that time, and the Chinese regime could not take care of Taiwan and sent troops to occupy Taiwan.

They forcibly seized land, enslaved the common people, forced the Chinese residents on the island of Taiwan to pay heavy taxes, and used Taiwan as the center to sell Chinese goods such as porcelain, silk, sugar, and other goods obtained at low prices to other places for huge profits.

In 1661, the national hero Zheng Chenggong led 25,000 soldiers to beat the Dutch colonists to their knees and beg for mercy, recovering Taiwan, and was admired by future generations.

In the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, if our army changed its operational plan, what were the chances of winning the war?

In 1683, his son handed over the governance of Taiwan to the Qing government, and the Qing government established the Taiwan government, which was subordinate to Fujian Province.

In 1894, Japan launched the Sino-Japanese War, which defeated the fleet built by the Qing government with a lot of money, forced the Qing government to sign the "Treaty of Shimonoseki" that humiliated the country, formally ceded Taiwan to Japan, and ignored the Chinese people on the island of Taiwan, arousing the indignation of the Chinese people and hastening the demise of the Qing government.

In the 50 years since then, Japan began to colonize Taiwan, during which a large number of Japanese immigrants to Taiwan and intermarried with the residents of the island of Taiwan, leaving behind a large number of descendants of Japanese ancestry.

Most of these descendants of Japanese descent and Japanese descendants are proud of being the descendants of colonizers, and their hearts are more inclined to submit to Japan, which also laid the foundation for the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis.

In the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, if our army changed its operational plan, what were the chances of winning the war?

In July 1937, the "77 Incident" broke out, and Japan, with wolf ambitions, was not willing to colonize only Taiwan and began to wage war against Chinese mainland, and due to Chiang Kai-shek's incompetence and compromise policy, Japan quickly occupied northeast China and established a "puppet Manchurian government", supporting the last emperor who had long been thrown into the garbage heap by history and the people as a puppet.

The war of aggression launched by Japan forced the Chinese people to participate in the war against aggression, and many Taiwan compatriots had long been fed up with the Japanese colonial rule and crossed the Taiwan Strait to participate in the War of Resistance Against Japan.

When the Pacific War broke out in February 1941, the Nationalist Government issued the Proclamation of China's Declaration of War on Japan on December 9, clearly announcing to China and foreign countries: "All treaties, agreements, and contracts involving Sino-Japanese relations shall be abolished." "It brought the dawn of the recovery of Taiwan.

In August 1945, after eight years of arduous anti-Japanese war by the people of all ethnic groups across the country, in August 1945, Japan, which was already in decline, announced its unconditional surrender, and Taiwan finally returned to the embrace of the motherland after a lapse of more than 50 years.

In the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, if our army changed its operational plan, what were the chances of winning the war?

On October 25, 1945, the surrender ceremony of Taiwan Province in the Allied China Theater was held in Taipei City, Taiwan Province, and the surrendered chief declared on behalf of the Chinese Government that from now on, Taiwan and the Penghu Islands have officially rejoined the territory of China, and all land, people, and political affairs have been placed under China's sovereignty. At this point, Taiwan and Penghu returned to China's sovereign jurisdiction.

After more than 50 years of unremitting resistance and struggle of the Taiwan compatriots and China's victory in World War II as an Allied Power, Taiwan has finally returned to China.

After the War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression, the Chiang Kai-shek government brazenly launched a war against the communist army, which was also the main force of resistance against Japan, in disregard of the appeals and aspirations of the people of all nationalities throughout the country to form a coalition government and quickly restore the national economy, and the War of Liberation officially began.

But Chiang Kai-shek clearly overestimated the ability of his own interest group, a ruling group headed by the four major families, to frantically accumulate wealth at home, disregard the livelihood of the common people, impose warlord rule on the common people, and create one white terror after another.

On the other hand, the Communist Party of China (CPC) itself was founded by the union of workers and peasants, and its purpose was to seek benefits for the people of the whole country and liberate the whole of China.

In the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, if our army changed its operational plan, what were the chances of winning the war?

Chiang Kai-shek was defeated in the erroneous war waged against the Communists, and the proclaimed millions of troops and the reactionary army supported by US imperialism were defeated by the communist forces formed by the people themselves, and after the three decisive battles of the Liaoshen War, the Pingjin War, and the Huaihai War, Chiang Kai-shek's main force was left with little left, and the Nationalist Government began to collapse under Chiang Kai-shek's reactionary rule, abandoned by the people, and the reactionaries began to seek a way out.

At this time, a well-known academic researcher of geography named Zhang Qiyun comprehensively considered several places where Chiang Kai-shek could escape, such as southwest, Hainan, and Taiwan, and explained to Chiang Kai-shek the advantages and disadvantages of Taiwan compared with several other places in the country that could be retreated from a geographical point of view, emphasizing that the communist air force and navy were relatively weak and could not pose a threat to Taiwan, and strongly persuaded Chiang Kai-shek to flee to Taiwan to retain his strength.

Chiang Kai-shek finally decided to lead the remaining remnants of the defeated army to flee to Taiwan, and take with him the vast wealth of the people plundered during the period of mainland rule, which also became the capital of the ongoing confrontation between the Taiwanese puppet government and the mainland.

Since then, under the rule of Chiang Kai-shek and his successors, Taiwan has once again separated from the motherland and become an "orphan child" wandering abroad, and the liberation of Taiwan has become a matter that the Chinese government and people must always consider.

In the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, if our army changed its operational plan, what were the chances of winning the war?

From the very beginning of the founding of the People's Republic of China, the People's Republic of China has been planning to recover Taiwan and liberate the island of Taiwan.

From October 24, 1949 to August 1950, the Chinese government launched the first liberation operation to seize the island, also known as the Battle of Kinmen.

Although the subsequent offensive failed due to the weakness of the air force and navy at that time, it did not affect the Chinese government's determination to liberate Taiwan in the slightest.

In order to cooperate with the liberation of Taiwan Island and to strike at and weaken the strength of the Kuomintang, the PLA launched an attack on the Zhoushan Islands, Hainan Island, and Wanshan Islands, all of which won the battle.

In order to completely liberate the whole of China and let Taiwan return to the embrace of the motherland as soon as possible, in April 1950, our party once again proposed on many occasions that "the liberation of Taiwan is the most important combat task of the whole party."

The East China Military Region and the Third Field Front Committee, which were directly deployed to participate in the liberation of Taiwan, also issued "Instructions on Preparations for Attacking Taiwan," and both regarded the liberation of Taiwan as the top priority at that time.

In the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, if our army changed its operational plan, what were the chances of winning the war?

At that time, the mainland government was very determined to liberate Taiwan in one fell swoop, and was determined not to leave difficult problems to the next generation and to completely realize the liberation of the whole country.

According to the data, in order not to repeat the mistake of attacking Kinmen and Guningtou, the PLA has dispatched the main fighter ships of the navy and air force to form a navy and air force unit specially designed to attack Taiwan.

Chairman Mao also personally appointed General Su Yu to take charge of the liberation of Taiwan.

But unfortunately, when everything was ready, the Korean War broke out, and China had to divert its main energy and resources to winning the Korean War, and there was no time to focus its main forces on Taiwan.

At the same time, in order to obstruct China's reunification, US imperialism sent the Seventh Fleet, which had the world's most advanced level at that time, into the Taiwan Strait.

However, the Chinese's faith and confidence in liberating the whole country will not waver.

In the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, if our army changed its operational plan, what were the chances of winning the war?

After a few years, on January 18, 1955, General Zhang Aiping commanded a campaign in which the army, navy and air force fought together, and in one fell swoop took Yijiangshan Island, which was occupied by the Kuomintang, which was the prelude to continuing to prepare for the armed attack on Taiwan.

In August 1958, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) once again tried to weaken the peripheral strength of the national-occupied island of Taiwan, launched an artillery bombardment on the Kuomintang troops stationed on Kinmen Island, and in more than a month, fired a total of more than 500,000 artillery shells, effectively destroying the Kuomintang's Kinmen defense forces, attempting to carry out an armed blockade of Kinmen, and sinking a Kuomintang warship during the period.

However, the US imperialists did not give up their thieving intentions and once again came to Chiang Kai-shek's aid, sending advanced missiles and large-caliber artillery, inflicting losses on the PLA, and the attempt to blockade Kinmen also ended in failure.

In 1962, Chiang Kai-shek saw that the mainland's domestic economic strength was weak and the situation was turbulent, so he started war again.

However, at that time, the United States wanted to reap the benefits of the fisherman and did not support Chiang Kai-shek's actions, and the two sides still broke out in small-scale naval battles such as the Battle of Dongyin, the Battle of Dongshan, and the Battle of Wuqiu.

In the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, if our army changed its operational plan, what were the chances of winning the war?

After that, for quite a long time, because the country began to reform and open up and attract investment, the mainland government did not want to destroy this peaceful development opportunity and did not continue to wage war against Taiwan, but the goal of preparing for war and liberating Taiwan did not stop for a moment.

The situation of relative peace between the two sides of the strait came to an end with the assumption of Taiwan's new regional leader, Lee Teng-hui, and the "Taiwan Strait Crisis" broke out, which had a huge impact at that time.

The clouds of war have been rekindled by Taiwan.

Lee Teng-hui, also known as Masao Iwasato, was born in Taiwan in 1923, when Taiwan was being invaded and occupied by Japan and became a Japanese colony.

Lee Teng-hui has been deeply influenced by Japan, and although he has been in the underground party for several years, he quit the party only for personal reasons.

Lee Teng-hui returned from his studies in the United States in 1969 and taught at National Taiwan University, mainly in agriculture.

In the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, if our army changed its operational plan, what were the chances of winning the war?

In 1971, Shen Zonghan, who was also a member of the Peasant Rehabilitation Association, introduced Lee Teng-hui to Chiang Ching-kuo, who was in power at the time, and it happened that Chiang Ching-kuo was preparing to take over the military and political power of the Kuomintang in Taiwan from Chiang Kai-shek, and it was necessary to reorganize the cabinet.

In 1972, he served as a "political councilor" of the Taiwan region, in charge of Taiwan's agriculture, and in 1978, he began to take charge of local power, serving as mayor of Taipei, and became a powerful faction.

After a year, in December 1979, Lee Teng-hui finally stepped into the core of power in Taiwan and became a member of the Central Standing Committee of the Kuomintang.

After successive promotions, on the day of Chiang Ching-kuo's death in January 1988, Lee Teng-hui impatiently announced that he would become the "supreme leader of the Taiwan region."

After seizing power alone, Lee Teng-hui began to suppress the opposition within the party and successively "revised the constitution" to lay the foundation for the "Taiwanization" of administrative divisions.

In the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, if our army changed its operational plan, what were the chances of winning the war?

Lee Teng-hui, because of his early experience of studying in the United States and the remnants of Japan's colonial education ideology, is very deferential to US imperialism and Japan, admires the United States and Japan, and has colluded with the United States and Japan to support his stance.

As everyone knows, China and the United States signed a treaty at the very beginning of the establishment of diplomatic relations, and the United States has repeatedly publicly acknowledged the "one-China policy," but in June 1995, then US President Clinton suddenly announced his decision to allow Lee Teng-hui to pay an "unofficial and private" visit to the United States, breaking the "ban" on not allowing Taiwan's top leaders to visit the United States for nearly 17 years, breaking the tacit understanding between the beginning of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States to the present, trampling on the terms and obligations of the "Sino-US Joint Communique," and seriously damaging the political foundation of Sino-US relations.

During his visit to the United States, Lee Teng-hui made a speech with strong political overtones, which had an extremely bad impact and seriously boosted the arrogance of the Taiwan authorities and international anti-China forces.

In response to the US provocation, the mainland government has taken a series of measures to respond, summoning the US ambassador to express China's serious position and suspending bilateral high-level visits.

In the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, if our army changed its operational plan, what were the chances of winning the war?

In order to deter the increasingly arrogant schemes of Lee Teng-hui and other forces, from July 1995 to November 1995, our military conducted a series of missile launches and large-scale naval, land, and air military exercises aimed at the situation in the Taiwan Strait, and conducted missile test firing in the waters off Pengjiayu, 56 kilometers from Keelung, Taiwan.

A large number of planes, warships, and other armed forces were also dispatched to carry out on-the-spot military exercises, which included amphibious landing operations, airborne landing, and mountain operations.

This is also the origin of the crisis in the Taiwan Strait.

On December 19, 1995, US imperialism once again sent a huge aircraft carrier battle group through the Taiwan Strait.

The actions of both sides have suddenly made cross-strait relations tense, and the dark clouds of war have once again shrouded both sides of the strait.

At that time, the Taiwanese people panicked, and thousands rushed to the bank overnight to withdraw money or exchange dollars, and many people rushed to buy air tickets to fly to the United States and Canada.

In the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, if our army changed its operational plan, what were the chances of winning the war?

At that time, the mainland troops mobilized more than 1,000 sorties of planes and missiles of various types, and conducted large-scale troop mobilization exercises, and our military's missiles and radars were in a state of combat readiness, and they were always keeping a close eye on Taiwan and the US aircraft carrier battle group in the Taiwan Strait.

The United States smelled the smell of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) liberating Taiwan and launching a war, and this time it even dispatched two aircraft carrier battle groups to cruise in the Taiwan Strait in an attempt to interfere in a war that might break out at any time.

According to various subsequent sources, in the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, in fact, the PLA's liberation war against Taiwan had all been deployed in place, and it could be said that it was ready to fly, even if the United States came to intervene, because it was fighting close to China's mainland, China's missiles could easily find their targets and launch a saturation attack on the aircraft carrier battle group, and the United States would be powerless in the face of the PLA's missile offensive.

In the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, if our army changed its operational plan, what were the chances of winning the war?

So at the last moment, why didn't the PLA launch the order to liberate Taiwan?

It is said that two major generals in the People's Liberation Army (Liu Liankun and Liu Guangzhi) were instigated by Taiwan's secret services with money and beautiful women, providing Taiwan with a large number of PLA military deployment and operational plans against Taiwan, and betraying a large number of China's military secrets, including weapon performance, personnel allocation, and so on.

These military secrets have been obtained by Taiwan's intelligence departments, and the Kuomintang, the United States, Japan, and other countries have made a large number of targeted arrangements for the PLA's plan to attack Taiwan.

In addition, at that time, after all, China was centered on economic construction and actively created an image of peaceful development in the international community, and if it forcibly attacked Taiwan according to the leaked military plan at this time, it would inevitably affect China's strategy of "taoguang and nurture obscurity" and deal a serious blow to the national economy, which was inconsistent with the overall strategy of Chinese mainland.

In the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, if our army changed its operational plan, what were the chances of winning the war?

So, if our army temporarily changes its operational plan and continues to forcibly attack Taiwan, what will be our army's chances of victory in terms of the comparison of military weapons between the two sides of the strait?

First of all, let's look at the navy, if we want the troops to advance into Taiwan, the navy is very important.

In terms of naval warships, Taiwan's warships at that time were all advanced and improved Yangzi destroyers and Knox frigates, which had a large displacement and a high degree of automation in weapons, and occupied a great advantage in quality.

In addition, there is also the US aircraft carrier battle group to help in the war, and it is difficult to say whether the Yankees dare to really participate in the war.

At that time, our navy only had one relatively advanced 052 destroyer, and most of the rest were 051 missile ships with somewhat backward functions, but fortunately, there were many of them, and if they fought with Taiwan, they would definitely be able to cripple Taiwan's navy.

In terms of air force, Taiwan is obviously inferior to our army, and Taiwan's equipment at that time was relatively large with some F-104 fighters, whose performance was average, and they have been in service for a long time, and it is still unknown how many sorties it can actually make in wartime.

In the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, if our army changed its operational plan, what were the chances of winning the war?

On the other hand, our air force has deployed more than 20 sorties of Su-27 flanker fighters and the J-8II, a high-altitude and high-speed fighter independently developed by the mainland, and a large number of Jian-7 and Jian-6 and other general fighters in the rear.

But then again, if more than 100 sorties of third-generation aircraft on US aircraft carriers take part in the war, in terms of the quality and quantity of aircraft, our air force will not be able to bear it.

In terms of the army, our army's land warfare equipment is obviously inferior, and if it crosses the Taiwan Strait and conducts a landing operation, I am afraid that only some Type 63 amphibious tanks and some Type 59 light tanks converted from old Type 79 tanks will be able to go ashore.

However, once our army and land land on the island of Taiwan in large quantities, then even if the land equipment is not good, Taiwan's army will not be enough to stuff the gaps, and the Korean War is an example.

In the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, if our army changed its operational plan, what were the chances of winning the war?

However, there are also viewpoints that because our army is not familiar with Taiwan's geography and climate, it is very easy to fall into a stalemate, resulting in a situation in which it is difficult to attack and supply.

Frankly speaking, judging from the previous example of the attack on Kinmen's Ninggutou, due to the weakness of our navy, it is easy to cause logistics and supplies to not keep up, and this situation may occur.

Taiwan's army tanks were indeed very powerful at that time, with more than 500 Yonghu main battle tanks, and they occupied a geographical advantage, so the threat to our army was still very great, and it should not be underestimated.

In terms of high-power precision-guided missiles, our military has a huge superiority in numbers, and there are many models; targeting the Taiwan side are mainly more than 200 Dongfeng-15 missiles; Taiwan's missiles not only have average performance, but also have a small number; in addition, Taiwan's territory is small and the mainland is deep, and Taiwan's missiles pose little threat to Chinese mainland.

In the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, if our army changed its operational plan, what were the chances of winning the war?

However, we must not forget that at that time, China's missile guidance basically relied entirely on the United States' GPS navigation, and whether or not the United States participated in the war, it had a very high chance of turning off its GPS signal to China, so that our military's missile superiority would be greatly reduced, and if the US aircraft carrier battle group launched a missile attack on the mainland at this time, the situation would not be optimistic.

Therefore, on the whole, if our army's plan to attack Taiwan is implemented when a crisis breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, Taiwan and China will win or lose by a factor of 55, and no one will be sure of victory.

Moreover, the international situation at that time would still be unfavorable to China, which would inevitably affect China's reform and opening up and the realization of the modernization process, but the gains outweighed the losses.

Perhaps, this is also the main reason why our army was ready to shoot at that time but did not launch it, after all, the deterrent effect had been achieved, and the purpose of warning external anti-China forces was very beneficial to China at that time.

In the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, if our army changed its operational plan, what were the chances of winning the war?

Now, China has entered 2024, China's comprehensive national strength has steadily ranked second in the world, and the equipment of the air force, navy, army, rocket force and other troops can already be proud of most countries in the world, in the famous words of the spokesman of the mainland government: Chinese people can already look at the whole world.

Perhaps, in a few years, when the time is ripe, a bright five-star red flag will surely fly in the sky over the island of Taiwan! Taiwan is an inalienable part of China's sacred territory, and this will never change!