It seems that this wave of "free fall" in the urea market is really unexpected! The price performance on April 3 can be said to have shocked the entire fertilizer circle. The rapid decline in the price of urea has made the price of "one word" a reality. This change not only affects producers, but also makes purchasers scratch their heads. This is the market, there is always an unexpected side, and then I will take you through the ups and downs in detail.
The urea market on April 3 this year can be described as magnificent. On this day, the urea market is like a roller coaster, all the way down. Factories have reduced prices, ranging from 10, 20 to 40 yuan/ton, which is dazzling.
Especially in Shandong, Henan, Hebei and Shaanxi, the price of small granular urea has dropped directly to 1930 to 2050 yuan/ton, and some enterprises in Inner Mongolia have dropped to 1880 yuan/ton. This is not a small amount, and according to the past market, it is already a big decline.
This price drop is not for no reason, and there is a reason behind it. In terms of production, the daily output of urea on April 3 was about 187,700 tons, which was little changed compared to the previous working day. However, compared with the same period last year, it increased by 24,700 tons. Some companies resumed production, while others stopped their cars due to maintenance.
Enterprises like Heart to Heart, Salt Lake, Boyuan, and Red Sifang are expected to have maintenance plans next week. In this way, the supply of urea remained at a high level for a short time.
The situation where demand outstrips supply has not arisen. On the contrary, the situation on the demand side is a bit bleak. The regreening fertilizer season in Henan and Shandong is over, but the rice fertilizer in other southern regions has not been able to keep up.
The procurement enthusiasm in the Northeast region is not high, and the progress of the entire fertilizer preparation has been slowed down. In terms of industry, compound fertilizer companies are not in good supply, new orders are advancing slowly, and the operating rate is also showing a downward trend. Taken together, these factors make the demand side of urea seem inadequate.
The price of urea fell all the way until it fell below the psychological threshold of 2,000 yuan. Volume has not improved. The pressure on the manufacturers is huge, and urea is like a hot potato, eager to clear it. In this context, urea prices are likely to continue to fall in the short term.
Despite the uncertain export situation, the slight decline in operating rates and low prices may have attracted the attention of some downstream buyers. In this way, the market may have some cushion. Moreover, now everyone is paying attention to the transaction changes of low-end prices and the trend of futures prices, hoping to find some guidance from the market.
Specific to the price of each region, it is really one place and one policy, diversified. For example, in Shandong, the mainstream ex-factory price of small and medium-sized particles is about 1990 to 2020 yuan/ton, and that of large particles is 2150 to 2200 yuan/ton. In Henan, the ex-factory price of small particles is also around 2,000 yuan. Price changes in each region are directly related to local supply and demand and transportation costs.
While everyone is expecting a "bottoming out" in prices, the reality is often harsh. Buyers have become more cautious on this price slide, and they are no longer ordering as aggressively as they used to, but are more inclined to buy in small quantities and buy now. Such a strategy has undoubtedly exacerbated the uncertainty of the market and made sellers feel like a roller coaster.
Some companies are starting to try new strategies, such as adjusting their product structure or finding new sales channels. However, the general environment of the market is difficult to change quickly, at least in the short term.
The situation in the urea market is complex and delicate. Each link affects the direction of the entire market, from production to sales, to the final consumer. The fluctuation of prices is only the appearance, behind which is the complex game and adjustment of the upstream and downstream of the entire industry.
No one can say what the future trend of the urea market will be. On the one hand, if there is a recovery on the demand side, then the price will naturally recover. On the other hand, if the oversupply situation continues, the price will continue to bottom. Every participant in the market is keeping a close eye on the possibilities, trying to find their foothold in this unpredictable market.
For the average consumer, the decline in urea prices may be good news, after all, the cost has decreased. But for those who depend on the fertilizer industry for their livelihoods, such price changes could mean a reduction in income. This is a typical "zero-sum game", some people laugh, and naturally some people are worried.
In this battlefield without gunpowder, everyone is working hard to survive and develop. Every price change in the urea market is a change in the fate of countless families and individuals. This market is like a vivid script, staging the joys and sorrows of the world.