#精品长文创作季#
The situation in the South China Sea is becoming more and more severe, and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos has taken a dangerous step and issued a presidential decree that "Filipinos will not give in", adding fuel to the already tense situation in the South China Sea, and the situation in the South China Sea may usher in great changes in the future!
In response to Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos's "dangerous statement", China will firmly and never give in and confront it to the end.
So why are there frequent disagreements between the mainland and the Philippines over the South China Sea issue, and in what direction will the South China Sea issue continue to develop in the future amid the rising tensions in the South China Sea?
1. The causes of the contradictions between China and the Philippines
China's state-to-state relationship with the Philippines has undergone a rapid transformation in recent years, from a strategic cooperative partner to an antagonistic country, and the essence of this is the dispute over the South China Sea.
Since Zheng He of the Ming Dynasty went to the West, China has expanded the territory of the South China Sea, and a large number of islands in the South China Sea have always belonged to the territory of the mainland since ancient times.
However, with the gradual development of international trade, the strategic position of the transportation hub in the South China Sea has become more and more important, and island countries such as the Philippines are full of coveting some "desert islands" in the South China Sea.
China's dispute over the Philippines over the Ren'ai Jiao incident has also become a trigger for confrontation in China-Philippines relations, and the Philippines is trying to complicate the South China Sea issue through illegal occupation and thus seek its own benefit.
As early as 1999, the Philippines was jealous of the reef's advantageous location and abundant resources, so it sailed warships to the vicinity of the reef and refused to leave on the grounds of power exhaustion.
The meaning of the Philippines is very obvious, trying to run aground on Ren'ai Jiao through the "Sierra Madre", it needs to transport materials from the Philippines, on the surface it is for the repair of the Sierra Madre warship, but in fact it is secretly Chen Cang, secretly transporting building materials to Ren'ai Jiao!
The Philippines is attempting to take Ren'ai Jiao as its own by illegally constructing buildings on Ren'ai Jiao, in a vain attempt to create the false impression that Ren'ai Jiao belongs to the Philippines in the course of international proceedings!
In fact, looking at the Philippines' attempt to illegally occupy Ren'ai Jiao, there are traces in the history of the mainland. In the past, Portugal anchored in Macao through the breakdown of a cargo ship, and finally knocked on the door of the Qing government's closure of the country!
However, the past is different from the past, and the mainland naturally resolutely resists the Philippines' illegal attempts! The Philippines' attempt to illegally occupy Ren'ai Jiao also ended in failure. However, the Philippines has never given up its attempt to occupy Ren'ai Jiao, and has frequently provoked the mainland navy in recent years!
In December 2023, three Philippine ships forced their way into the waters off China's Scarborough Shoal without authorization, and after persuasion failed, mainland coast guard ships finally chose to use high-pressure water cannons to expel them.
However, in the press conference after the event, the Philippine side claimed that it was inexplicably attacked by the mainland navy, trying to beat it up and confuse the public!
In addition, Philippine ships have repeatedly forcibly broken through the coastline and gone to Ren'ai Jiao to transport supplies in an attempt to build Philippine infrastructure projects at Ren'ai Jiao. Even if it was blocked by Chinese warships, it was indifferent, and even took the initiative to provoke and scrape!
In the press conference after the outbreak of the incident, the Philippine side will even make a rake, shirk responsibility, and reverse right and wrong.
The Philippine chief of staff and commanders frequently hyped up the Ren'ai Jiao incident and took advantage of the incident
It portrays itself as an aggrieved small country and portrays the mainland as a hegemonic act of "bullying the weak" in an attempt to gain the support of the United Nations and the media.
And Marcos's announcement of the dangerous presidential decree has pushed the tense relations between China and the Philippines to a white-hot process, and even an armed conflict may break out in the future!
Second, Marcos's tough attitude is behind it
In the face of increasing tensions in the South China Sea, Marcos took the lead, pointing out in his statement that he strongly condemned the "illegal, coercive, dangerous and aggressive attacks" of the Chinese Coast Guard.
Presidential Marcos decree pointed out that in the face of the increasingly tense situation in the South China Sea, the Philippines will vigorously improve its military defense capability in the South China Sea, thus facing the so-called territorial integrity challenge!
Marcos also called on the Filipino people to "never give in" and fight to the end against illegal aggressors even if maritime security is challenged by a series of challenges.
In addition, Marcos also completely established the South China Sea defense issue, including all 12 departments such as the Ministry of Defense, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the Intelligence Bureau, as if the South China Sea issue was set as the top priority for the Philippines to solve urgently!
Most of the contents of Marcos's presidential decree statement reversing right and wrong are fabricated and are really false! His words are conclusive about the Chinese coast guard's attack on his fleet, but the Continental Army ships are only using high-pressure water cannons to make the other side evacuate when persuasion is useless!
As for the so-called territorial integrity of the Philippines, the South China Sea has been a continental territory since ancient times, and the Philippines is eyeing it because of its attributes as a major transportation route.
At present, the South China Sea has become an important hub on the shipping route, with a total annual value of 3 trillion US dollars transported in the South China Sea, and 80% of China's goods are transported through the South China Sea.
Looking at the comparison of China's and the Philippines' national strength, the Philippines' hard wrestling with China is undoubtedly a grasshopper shaking the tree, so why is the Philippines hostile to the mainland?
In fact, the reason why the Philippines is so presumptuous is because it has the backing of the United States.
The United States has a long history with the Philippines, which was a Spanish colony during the Age of Discovery.
In order to compete with Spain for the ownership of colonies in Cuba, the Philippines and other places, the United States fought the Spanish-American War.
The outcome of the Spanish-American War ended with the United States winning. The Philippines was once a colony of the United States, but with the independence of the Philippines after World War II, it still has close ties with the United States, and the Philippines is an important member of the United States in the Asia-Pacific alliance system.
In order to enhance its voice in the Asian region and improve its ability to intervene in Asian affairs, the United States has supported the Philippines and built it into a bridgehead in Asia. With the support of the United States, the Philippines is very arrogant, and has repeatedly provoked its neighbors in international affairs!
And the Philippine president's important statement this time naturally has the instructions of the United States behind it. The situation in the South China Sea in Asia will become more complicated in the future.
In addition to the instructions of the United States, Marcos's radical statement paved the way for his re-election and cleared the way for his political career.
Marcos's election as president of the Philippines is inextricably linked to his radical nationalist ideology, which has led to the intensification of national sentiment and the support of a large number of people.
The promotion of anti-China populism in the Philippines will undoubtedly make more Filipinos side with Marcos, and then promote the realization of his political goals.
Whether it is the dispute in the South China Sea or the Diaoyu Islands incident, which has been boiling over, it shows that the mainland's territorial sovereignty in the waters is facing severe challenges, and in the face of an increasingly grim international situation, what is the mainland's attitude, and how will the South China Sea issue develop in the future?
3. Prospects for future international relations in the South China Sea
China's long-standing dispute with the Philippines in the South China Sea is likely to heat up with Marcos's presidential decree, and despite Marcos' tough stance, the United States, on which he relies does not necessarily support him.
There are two main reasons for this, the first of which is naturally that the United States is now too busy to take care of itself. The situation in Europe is unpredictable, and the United States is mired in the Russia-Ukraine dispute, and at the moment it may be powerless to deal with the South China Sea issue of the Philippines.
Moreover, the United States itself is heavily dependent on trade routes in the South China Sea. After the epidemic, the global economic recovery slowed down, the U.S. commodity economy completely collapsed, and a large number of goods need to be imported through China.
At that time, the intensification of the dispute between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea would undoubtedly lead to the suspension of shipping routes in the South China Sea, which in turn would lead to an increase in the price of commodities and goods, which was an economic loss that the United States was unwilling to bear.
The Philippines' radical presidential decree statement is also the greatest extent of assistance given by the United States to the Philippines in the context of exploring the bottom line of the United States and the alliance agreement between the two countries.
Only when the Philippines is aware of the attitude of the United States can it decide on the next step, whether to continue to provoke and intensify the contradictions, or to give in to the soft exit and stop the loss in time.
In fact, no matter what the attitude of the Philippines or the United States behind it is, the attitude of the mainland has always been clear, that is, it will never make concessions and resolutely protect the inherent territory of the mainland!
Since the founding of the People's Republic of China, the mainland's military and economic strength has taken off, and it is now the world's second largest economy and one of the world's top three military powers.
Therefore, whether it is Ren'ai Jiao in the South China Sea or the Diaoyu Dao in the East China Sea, the slightest territory of the mainland cannot be offended, and the territorial integrity of the country cannot be violated.
At the same time, the mainland should also think about the fact that even if its national strength increases, it is still frequently provoked by small countries! The reason behind this is closely related to the mainland's tolerant policy of being a big country.
In the spirit of a big country, the mainland has always been tolerant and even somewhat conniving at the provocations of its neighbors, but we do not know that this kind of tolerant thinking will make small countries mistakenly believe that the mainland is weak, so in the future, the mainland's foreign policy needs to be appropriately adjusted, and the small countries will be afraid of it by tough means, so as to strangle the threat to its territorial integrity in the cradle.
epilogue
The dispute between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea has been going on for a long time, and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos's aggressive presidential decree may make the dispute in the South China Sea hot.
Behind the arrogance of the Philippines is the support of the United States, and Marcos made a radical statement to win popular votes to achieve re-election.
Regardless of the Philippines' attitude, the mainland will never make concessions on the South China Sea issue, and will adopt tougher diplomatic measures in the future to punish provocative acts that attempt to undermine the mainland's territorial integrity.
What do you have to say about Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos' radical presidential decree? What direction do you think the South China Sea dispute will develop in the future?