In fact, this round of property market adjustment, to be more precise, should start at the end of 2021, and it has been two and a half years now.
Moreover, according to a report by China Economic Weekly: According to a report by China Economic Weekly on March 19, according to the latest data released by the statistics department, the average price of newly built commercial housing in the country in February 2024 fell from 12,400 yuan per square meter to 9,600 yuan per square meter, a decrease of 22.6% from the peak.
To be honest, if you look specifically at the core area and suburbs of the city, the decline in old neighborhoods, non-quality housing, and houses in the far suburbs may fall even more.
Moreover, what is more noteworthy is that the decline is now close to the "bottom line theory" proposed by developers that can only withstand a 30% decline, so what should happen next?
On this issue, everyone's position is different, and it is difficult to unify the viewpoint, but from a historical point of view, since our property market is a policy market, how the market goes, ultimately depends on the attitude of the country.
Moreover, it can be predicted from the country's clear statement that the property market is indeed not allowed to continue to fall, and this year and next year, you may have no choice but to buy a house.
01.
Ministries set the tone
Not allowing house prices to fall?
In fact, for the current property market, the country has made clear its attitude last year: to promote the recovery of the property market!
In addition, in March this year, when the national statistics department introduced the operation of the real estate market in the mainland in February, it also made a clear statement again:
Judging from the tone set by the central ministries and commissions, the property market is indeed not allowed to continue to fall. Regarding this, it can be analyzed from several aspects:
1. It is required to adapt to the new urbanization and changes in supply and demand.
The mainland's current urbanization rate has reached 66 percent, which is nearing the end of the term, and it is also an indisputable fact that there is already a relatively obvious oversupply in the market. In the face of this situation, it is now necessary to adapt and adjust, so that supply and demand can be brought back into balance.
As for how to balance, let's move on:
2. Achieve stable, healthy and high-quality development of the real estate market through a new real estate model.
What is the new model? From the information that has been made public so far, the main ones are: "three major projects", "scientifically compiling housing development plans", and "improving the basic system related to commercial housing".
No. (1): Three major projects
As for the content of the "three major projects", it mainly refers to affordable housing, urban village renovation and the construction of public infrastructure for "both ordinary and emergency".
Among them, the dual-use project of level and emergency, in the vernacular, is to add various supporting facilities around the community, which can be used in emergencies, and is usually open to surrounding residents, in fact, it is to add points to the community for travel and residence, and the side can stabilize and enhance the value of fixed assets.
There is also speeding up the construction of affordable housing, in fact, it is to ensure the housing needs of wage earners, which is equivalent to the country's bottom line, and there will be no housing in the future.
In addition, there is no longer a price limit for improving quality housing, following the market, in other words, rich people will buy commercial housing with improved quality in the future, and those with average economic conditions will choose affordable housing.
As for the transformation of urban villages, judging from the current plans released by the local government, the main ones are demolition and transformation, and demolition and relocation are given priority. This is actually a bit similar to the monetization and demolition of the shed reform back then, and the inventory of the property market.
It's just that unlike in the past, in the past, housing was subsidized, and demolition and relocation could make ordinary people rich. Now the main thing is to resettle the house ticket, and the house in the area with more inventory is more targeted and mandatory, and the efficiency of the inventory should be relatively high, and the quality of housing should also be improved.
(2) Scientifically prepare housing development plans.
In fact, this is to determine the housing demand according to the population change, scientifically arrange the land supply according to the housing demand, guide the allocation of financial resources, realize the people-based housing, the housing land, and the housing money, promote the balance of supply and demand in the real estate market, rationalize the structure, and prevent the market from fluctuating.
To put it more colloquially, it is to supply as many people as there is and how much demand there is, and cooperate with the inventory, and if there is too much inventory, the land will not be supplied until the supply and demand are balanced.
(3) Improve the basic system of commercial housing
One of the most important is the implementation of existing house sales of commercial housing. Needless to say, without pre-sale funds as leveraged development projects, developers can only use real money to build houses first, and as a result, the cost of capital has risen significantly, which has a significant impact on the slowdown in the pace of supply and the price of new homes. To put it bluntly, the prices of these houses will show a trend upward.
In short, behind this series of measures, they are all aimed at achieving stable, healthy and high-quality development of the real estate market.
02.
You may not have a choice but to buy a house
At present, in addition to the state taking all measures to stop the real estate market from continuing to fall, there are two other factors that cannot be ignored, so that industry insiders believe that in the past two years, you have no choice but to buy a house.
1. There really is no better way to preserve value than to buy a house.
The way to preserve the value of the currency of the domestic people, deposits, capital investment, real estate.
Now the two-year fixed deposit rate has fallen to about 1.6%, which is much lower than this year's target of 3% price increase, that is, you will lose 1.35% for every amount you save.
Moreover, it can also be understood from the predictions of various experts and bigwigs that the deposit interest rate will continue to fall this year and next, which means that the depreciation of the funds in hand will be visible to the naked eye if they take this way.
Looking at the capital market, such as stocks and funds, to be honest, over the years, even institutional bigwigs have faced huge losses, let alone ordinary people. Besides, our market system and mechanism are not perfect, it is still difficult to do value investment, the vast majority of people enter the market but also gamble on luck, the result can be imagined, 5% earn, 95% loss, but some professional institutional bosses have been reduced to the 95%, can you be sure that you are the 5%?
2. The price of building materials began to rise.
According to the data of the Bureau of Statistics, in January ~ February this year, the retail sales of furniture in units above the limit increased by 4.6% year-on-year, and the construction and decoration materials increased by 2.1%.
In addition, this year, the mainland has set a price target of 3%, although it does not directly include housing prices, but the materials used to build houses are all derived from the components of the price index.
In addition, the National Development and Reform Commission has proposed to raise everyone's income expectations this year;
A signal is becoming more and more obvious -- the price of raw materials is rising, labor costs are rising, and developers are not charities, so the price of newly built commercial housing will naturally rise.
In short, at present, developers are just waiting for an opportunity, waiting for the inventory to be depleted to a certain extent.
Therefore, at present, for those who have the need to buy a house or the improvement group, whether to start or not, not only to analyze personal economic factors, but also to have a general understanding of the general trend, so as not to make a decision that they regret.
Wan Ziwen said: Every word of the article was typed out by me, and I clicked "watching" to let me know that you are also "doing your best" for life.