Recently, the Vietnamese government has frequently sent people to visit China to communicate with the Chinese side on economic cooperation and other issues.
Judging from the latest news released by the Vietnamese side, Hanoi seems to have lost confidence in Japan and wants China to take over the construction of the north-south high-speed railway, the "main artery" of transportation planned by Vietnam.
【Minister of Planning and Investment of Vietnam Nguyen Chi Dung led a delegation to visit Beijing and Shanghai】
According to the Vietnamese government, Nguyen Zhidung, Minister of Planning and Investment, led a delegation to visit Beijing and Shanghai, and held meetings with the heads of enterprises in the Ministry of Commerce, the State Railway Administration, China Railway Construction, CRRC Group and other government departments, and visited and experienced the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway.
Before Nguyen Zhiyong and his entourage returned to China, the Vietnamese side said that China has the world's most developed railway industry and has rich experience in technology, management and other professional fields, and the Vietnamese side hopes to learn from China's experience and promote the construction of its own railway system.
However, from the perspective of all-round cooperation between China and Vietnam, it is very likely that Nguyen Zhidung and others will visit China to inspect the construction and operation of China's high-speed railway, so as to finally make up their minds to let China take over more domestic railway projects in Vietnam, especially the construction of the North-South high-speed railway project.
[Ruan Zhiyong and his entourage visited and experienced the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway]
Speaking of which, we need to introduce the railway construction situation in Vietnam.
Affected by factors such as insufficient capital and technical strength, and many jungles and mountains in the territory, Vietnam's railway construction has been relatively backward. Many of the railways are metre-gauge railways from the French colonial era, with a top speed of less than 100 km/h, and it takes days to travel from Hanoi in the north to Ho Chi Minh City in the south. Vietnamese people rely more on cars and planes for travel, and goods are transported by road and sea.
It can be said that the lack of railway transport capacity has in fact dragged down Vietnam's economy.
The Vietnamese government noticed this early on, and around 2006, it clearly proposed the construction of a high-speed railway from Ho Chi Minh City to Hanoi, with a total length of about 1,570 kilometers, and approached the Japanese side to provide support in the field of technology and other fields.
However, due to a series of problems such as funding, the railway has not officially started construction until now. The Japanese side initially intended to eat this big order. However, since then, due to the long construction period of the overall construction project and the reluctance of private enterprises to leave the market, they have become ambiguous. Although Vietnam has not been explicitly rejected, it has not been able to give a clear answer.
[Vietnam's own railway system is seriously aging]
At the beginning of 2023, after the Vietnamese government once again called on Japan to help with the construction of the railway, the Japanese side only said that it would consider the matter, but it did not come up with a clear plan for a long time.
Since Japan could not help, Vietnam had to look for external partners again. However, in the field of high-speed rail, only a few countries such as China, Japan, and France have sufficient technical strength to help Vietnam complete railway construction.
Japan is now reluctant to end, although France and Germany and other countries can build high-speed rail, but the cost is high, and Vietnam simply cannot afford it. In fact, China is already one of the few options for Vietnam.
Not to mention, China has proven its ability to build modern railways in the jungle and mountainous terrain of Southeast Asia through projects such as the China-Laos Railway and the Jakarta-Bandung High-speed Railway. The Vietnamese side has long seen this in their eyes.
[Jakarta-Bandung high-speed railway has been officially put into operation]
In addition, the cooperation between Vietnam and China in the field of railways has the advantage of promoting the connection of the railway systems of the two countries and promoting the construction of the railway network of the entire Indochina Peninsula. This is not only conducive to China's promotion of the "Belt and Road" construction, strengthening economic and trade exchanges with Southeast Asian countries, but also conducive to Vietnam's economic development.
The main obstacle that may prevent Vietnam from making up its mind to formally sign a cooperation agreement with China is the careful thinking that the Vietnamese government has always had on geopolitical issues, as well as the attitude of external forces such as the United States and Japan.
Vietnam initially chose Japan over China because around 2006, China had not yet demonstrated sufficient technological strength in the field of high-speed rail, and Japan, as a first-mover country, had a certain competitive advantage at that time.
But more than 10 years later, China has proven its infrastructure capabilities, and Vietnam is still prioritizing Japan's help because Vietnam has some geopolitical considerations, especially on the South China Sea issue, Vietnam and China still have differences, so they don't want China to participate in such critical projects that affect Vietnam's future.
[Vietnam has its own careful thinking on the South China Sea issue]
At the current stage, the United States, Japan, India and other countries are actively courting Vietnam, trying to use Vietnam as a key entry point to realize their Southeast Asia strategy, and do not want to see Vietnam and China carry out this kind of key infrastructure cooperation.
The United States and Japan may join forces to give Vietnam another option in the form of Japan providing technology and the United States providing money. At the same time, the United States, Japan and other countries may hype up the South China Sea issue in the hope of further inducing Vietnam's security anxiety about China and changing Vietnam's attitude.
As a key neighbor of Vietnam, China naturally hopes that Vietnam will be able to "learn more and grow wiser", make relevant adjustments in a timely manner, no longer let itself be careful about geopolitical issues, which will have a substantial impact on its own economic development, and make up its mind at an early date to create new opportunities for China-Vietnam cooperation.
However, the final choice in this matter is in Vietnam's hands, and what China can do now is to clearly put what kind of help it can provide in front of the Vietnamese side, and as for whether the Vietnamese side will only learn from China's railway management experience, or let China further participate in it, and help it build this strategic transportation artery at an early date, it still depends on the strategic choice of the current Vietnamese government.